Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday, pressing 0.8400.
USD/CHF has climbed roughly 220 pips from Tuesday's 0.8174 London low. Tuesday's hot US CPI drove the first leg in NY, and each pullback since has formed a higher low: Thursday's dip held at 0.8311, the 38.2% fib of the week's rally, and the Friday low at 0.8345 sits on the 23.6%. Friday's soft PPI knocked price to the 0.8360 PPI low before NY lifted it to a 0.8397 week high just under the 0.8400 round number. RSI(14) at 65.4 is below the 75.4 seen at Friday's earlier peak despite the higher price, a mild bearish divergence, while price holds above EMA(20) at 0.8377.
Support: 0.83765, 0.8360, 0.83449
Resistance: 0.83966, 0.8400
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8400 round number extends the week-high sequence; repeated rejection there keeps the bearish divergence in play
A break below the EMA(20) at 0.8377 would mark the first loss of the short-term trend support since Friday's PPI dip
Failure to hold the 0.8360 PPI low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the Friday low at 0.8345, near EMA(50) at 0.8350
Fed's Jefferson in under an hour and Chair Warsh on Monday 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
22:25 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading at week high · RSI 65 · price 0.83906
Higher lows since Thursday; stalling under 0.8400.
USDCHF has climbed roughly 220 pips from Tuesday's London low at 0.8174. The legs came mostly in NY hours: Tuesday's hot CPI print, then Wednesday's extension, then a Thursday NY drive off the 0.8311 dip that held the 38.2% retracement. Friday's soft PPI knocked price back to a 0.8360 ppi low, but the dip held above the higher-low trendline and extended to a fresh week high at 0.8397. RSI(14) peaked at 75.4 on Friday's midday high and only reached about 68 on the later, higher high, so momentum is not confirming the new high just under the 0.8400 round number, while price holds above a rising EMA(20) at 0.8377.
Support: 0.83765, 0.8360, 0.83449
Resistance: 0.83966, 0.8400
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 0.8400 round number extends the uptrend beyond the week high
Break below ema20 and the higher-low trendline exposes the 0.8360 ppi low
Loss of the 0.8345 friday low (23.6% fib) breaks the higher-low sequence and opens the 38.2% fib near 0.8311
Bearish RSI divergence at the week high stays active unless RSI makes a new peak with price
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday, pressing week high.
USD/CHF has stair-stepped higher since Tuesday's hot US CPI lifted it off the 0.8174 London-open low. Each dip has held as a higher low, Thursday at 0.8311 and Friday at 0.8345, with the NY session driving most of the gains. Demand stepped in above the 0.8360 PPI low after the soft print, and price pushed to a week high at 0.8397, just under the 0.8400 psych level. RSI(14) at 68.1 sits below Friday's 75.4 morning peak, a bearish divergence, while price holds above EMA(20) at 0.8375 and EMA(50) at 0.8348 and ATR eases to 10.5 pips.
Support: 0.8375, 0.8360, 0.83449
Resistance: 0.83966, 0.8400
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8400 psych level clears the week high and extends the CPI rally
Break below the ema20 at 0.8375 and the 0.8360 PPI low would mark the first lower low since Tuesday
Loss of the Friday low at 0.8345 breaks the higher-lows trendline and the 23.6% retracement of the CPI rally
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and Warsh on Monday 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read; weekend gap risk around 0.8400
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday's CPI breakout.
USD/CHF has climbed about 220 pips this week, from Tuesday's 0.8174 London-session low to a 0.8397 week high. Hot US CPI drove the NY-session breakout, and each dip since has formed a higher low along a rising trendline: Thursday's 0.8311 thu low and the 0.8360 ppi low after Friday's soft PPI. Price holds above EMA(20) at 0.8373 and EMA(50), with ATR(14) expanding to 11 pips. RSI(14) at 68.9 is below the 75.4 it printed at midday Friday's lower high, a bearish divergence as the pair stalls just under the 0.8400 round number.
Support: 0.83731, 0.8360, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.83965, 0.8400
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8400 round number and the 0.8397 week high extends the CPI-driven leg; the weekly close relative to 0.8400 is the next structural test
A break below the 0.8360 ppi low and the higher-lows trendline turns the bearish RSI divergence into a structural pullback toward the 0.8311 thu low
Pullbacks holding the rising ema20 near 0.8373 keep the uptrend read intact
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, then Chair Warsh on Monday at 17:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday's low, pressing the 0.8400 round number.
The week's rally from the 0.8174 London-open low on Tuesday was launched by the hot US CPI print in that day's NY session. It has since stepped higher through a series of higher lows at 0.8311 and 0.8345, the latter sitting at the 23.6% retracement and EMA(50). The soft PPI dip to the 0.8360 post-PPI low was bought back above the prior high at 0.8390, and price now sits at the week high just under the 0.8400 round number, well above EMA(20). RSI(14) at 69.8 is lower than the 75.4 reading at the midday Friday high despite the higher price, a bearish divergence while ATR has expanded from 8 to 12 pips.
Support: 0.8390, 0.83709, 0.8360
Resistance: 0.83961, 0.8400
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8400 round number clears the week high and extends the higher-high sequence
Slip back below the 0.8390 prior high toward ema20 at 0.8371 would show the divergence biting
Failure to hold the 0.8360 post-ppi low breaks the higher-lows trendline and opens the 38.2% fib near 0.8311
Fed's Jefferson tonight 00:00 UTC and Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday, pressing 0.8400.
USDCHF has climbed roughly 220 pips from Tuesday's 0.8174 low. Hot US CPI drove the NY-session leg on Tuesday, and hawkish Fed repricing extended the run, with Thursday's dip held near 0.8311 and the post-PPI dip on Friday finding buyers at the 0.8360 ppi low, just under EMA(20). Price now sits at a fresh week high near 0.8395, above both EMAs, but RSI(14) at 69.5 is below the 75.4 print at Friday's earlier 0.8390 high, a bearish divergence, while ATR has expanded to 12 pips.
Support: 0.83683, 0.8360, 0.83449
Resistance: 0.83953, 0.8400
What it said to watch
Round number 0.8400 directly overhead is the area to watch for rejection or a clean H1 close through.
An H1 close back below EMA(20) at 0.8368 and the 0.8360 ppi low would break the higher-low sequence and confirm the divergence.
Loss of the higher-lows trendline and the Friday low at 0.8345, the 23.6% fib area, shifts the read toward a deeper retracement.
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and Warsh on Monday at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
17:01 UTC
Uptrend, ATR expanding into the highs · RSI 68 · price 0.83886
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday's CPI low.
The week's dominant leg came in Tuesday's NY session, when the hot US CPI print lifted the pair off the 0.8174 low. Hawkish Fed repricing has since carried it through a series of higher lows to a fresh week high at 0.8393, with price above a rising EMA(20) at 0.8366 and EMA(50) at 0.8340. The post-PPI dip to the 0.8360 ppi low was absorbed within two bars and ATR(14) has stretched from 8.2 to 12.1 pips. RSI(14) at 67.5 sits below Friday morning's 75.4 peak despite the higher high, a mild bearish divergence just below the 0.8400 round number.
Support: 0.83655, 0.8360, 0.83449
Resistance: 0.83925, 0.8400
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8400 round number extends the higher-high sequence beyond the week high
Loss of the ema20 and the 0.8360 ppi low would put the higher-lows trendline under test
Break below the 0.8345 swing low ends the higher-low structure and opens the 38.2% retracement of the CPI rally near 0.8358 and below
Fed's Daly now and Jefferson in about 7h could shift the read, with Warsh on Monday the larger risk
Risk-off flare-up driving safe-haven CHF demand would challenge the uptrend read
16:01 UTC
Uptrend, pullback held at ema20 · RSI 64 · price 0.83802
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday's CPI. PPI dip retested Thursday's prior high..
USD/CHF has stacked higher highs since the hot CPI print in Tuesday's NY session. The pair climbed from the 0.8174 week low to a 0.8390 week high in London today, with Wednesday and Thursday NY hours each extending the leg. Fed hike repricing is the driver. The softer PPI knocked price back to 0.8360, Thursday's prior high and the ema20 zone, where demand stepped in and the bar closed near 0.8380. RSI(14) eased from 75 to 64 without divergence, while ATR has expanded to 12 pips.
Support: 0.8363, 0.8338, 0.8311
Resistance: 0.8390, 0.8400
What it said to watch
H1 close below the ema20 at 0.8363 and the higher-lows trendline would break this week's sequence
Ema50 at 0.8338 sits near the 23.6% fib of the week impulse; a move through it deepens the pullback
Failure to hold the thu low at 0.8311 would unwind the CPI-driven leg
Close above the 0.8390 week high opens the 0.8400 round number
Fed's Daly at 17:00 UTC and Warsh on Monday could materially shift this read
15:01 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 57 · price 0.83668
Higher lows since Tuesday, PPI dip testing ema20.
USD/CHF has printed a higher low each day since Tuesday's CPI-driven NY breakout from the 0.8174 week low. Thursday's London dip to 0.8311 and today's Asian swing low at 0.8345 were both absorbed. The run to a 0.8390 week high met rejection after the softer US PPI, and the NY-session pullback has so far held at the EMA(20) near 0.8361, close to the 38.2% retracement of the Thursday–Friday leg and the higher-lows trendline, while RSI(14) has cooled to 56.7 from 75.4 and ATR has expanded to 11.2 pips.
Support: 0.8361, 0.8345, 0.8311
Resistance: 0.8390, 0.8400
What it said to watch
H1 close below the ema20 / higher-lows trendline near 0.8360 shifts the read to a deeper pullback
Failure to hold the 0.8345 swing low breaks the daily higher-low sequence and exposes the thu low at 0.8311
H1 close above the 0.8390 week high opens the path to the 0.8400 round number
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) on December hike sizing could materially shift this read
USDCHF has climbed steadily since Tuesday's hot US CPI lifted it off 0.8174. Pullbacks held above a rising EMA(50), and demand stepped in at Friday's London-open low near 0.8345, putting price back above EMA(20). A fresh week high printed at 0.8390 into the NY session. The soft headline PPI briefly knocked price to 0.8367 before it recovered. RSI(14) at 71 is overbought but confirms the new high, so there is no divergence, and ATR has expanded to 10.1 pips on the release.
Support: 0.83608, 0.83449, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.83899, 0.8400
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8390 week high opens the path to the 0.8400 round number
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) on December hike sizing could materially shift this read
Loss of ema20 at 0.8361 puts the friday low at 0.8345 and the higher-low trendline in focus
Break below the 0.8311 thursday low would undo the higher-low sequence and the CPI-driven leg
13:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended and overbought · RSI 75 · price 0.83859
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday's 0.8174 low.
USDCHF has climbed about 215 pips this week from Tuesday's 0.8174 low. The hot US CPI print triggered the first leg in Tuesday's NY session, and the pair has stepped higher since through a series of higher lows: Thursday's 0.8311 dip and Friday's early 0.8345 swing low, with London extending to a 0.8390 week high. Price is well above the rising ema20 (0.8359) and ema50 (0.8333), but RSI(14) at 75.4 is overbought and sits below the 76.9 reading at Thursday's 0.8361 prior high. That is a mild bearish divergence as price nears the 0.8400 round number.
Support: 0.83638, 0.83586, 0.83449
Resistance: 0.83899, 0.8400
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (in under 30 min) could materially shift this read. A soft core print raises the risk of a shakeout in a stretched USD rally.
Reaction at the 0.8400 round number just above the 0.8390 week high, as an area to watch for rejection or break.
An H1 close back below the 0.8361 prior high and the ema20 near 0.8359 would mark the first loss of momentum.
Failure to hold the 0.8345 swing low breaks the higher-lows sequence of the week's rally.
The bearish divergence is void if RSI(14) prints above 76.9 on a new high.
12:02 UTC
Uptrend, stretched near week high · RSI 73 · price 0.83791
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday's low.
The week's impulse from Tuesday's 0.8174 low has kept printing higher lows. The hot US CPI print in Tuesday's NY session and Thursday's NY rebound off 0.8311 drove the main legs, and Friday's London session added a fresh week high at 0.8381. Price holds above EMA(20) at 0.8356 and EMA(50) at 0.8331, with the 0.8364 prior high as first support beneath; RSI(14) at 72.8 is overbought but below Thursday's 76.9 peak, a bearish divergence just under the 0.8400 round number.
Support: 0.83638, 0.83558, 0.83449
Resistance: 0.83812, 0.8400
What it said to watch
US Oct PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
H1 close back below the 0.8364 prior high puts the ema20 at 0.8356 in play
Failure to hold the 0.8345 swing low breaks the higher lows trendline
H1 close above the 0.8400 round number would leave the bearish divergence unconfirmed and extend the week high
11:02 UTC
Uptrend, overbought into fresh week high · RSI 71 · price 0.83761
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday's low, stretched above ema20.
USDCHF has climbed about 200 pips off Tuesday's 0.8174 low. The hot US CPI print in Tuesday's NY session triggered the main leg, and hawkish Fed repricing extended it through Wednesday. Thursday's dip to the 0.8311 swing low was absorbed during NY hours, and today's London session pushed to a fresh week high at 0.8377, with price holding above both EMAs. RSI(14) at 70.8 is overbought but sits below Thursday's 76.9 peak, a bearish divergence against the higher price high.
Support: 0.8362, 0.83534, 0.8311
Resistance: 0.8377, 0.8400
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read, with Fed's Bowman and Daly following in NY hours
An H1 close back below the 0.8362 prior high would mark the push through Thursday's top as a false break
Pullbacks holding the ema20 near 0.8353 and the higher lows line keep the uptrend structure intact; failure below the 0.8311 swing low would confirm a lower low and a deeper retracement of the week impulse
The 0.8400 round number is the next level above the week high, an area to watch for rejection or break
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday; pullbacks holding ema20.
Higher highs and higher lows have printed since Tuesday's 0.8174 London-open low. The hot US CPI print started the impulse in Tuesday's NY session, and Fed-hike repricing has extended it each day since. Pullbacks keep finding the ema20 (0.8351): Thursday's London dip held 0.8311, Friday's London-open dip to 0.8345 was reclaimed, and price has now set a fresh week high at 0.8373. RSI(14) at 68.3 sits below Thursday's ~77 peak despite the higher price, a bearish divergence as ATR re-expands from 8.2 to 9.4 pips.
Support: 0.83513, 0.83449, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.83725, 0.8400
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, followed by Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
An H1 close above the 0.8400 round number extends the higher-high sequence; rejection beneath it keeps the RSI divergence in focus
A close below the 0.8345 friday low breaks the higher-lows trendline
Failure to hold the 0.8311 thursday low opens the 38.2% retracement of the impulse near 0.8297
09:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 67 · price 0.83655
Higher highs and higher lows above ema20.
USD/CHF has climbed roughly 190 pips from Tuesday's 0.8174 low. The hot US CPI print lit the leg in Tuesday's NY session, and Thursday's NY session repeated the pattern, lifting price off the 0.8311 Thu low. The London open today printed a fresh week high at 0.8368, but RSI(14) at 67.4 sits below Thursday's 76.9 peak, a bearish divergence, while price still holds above the EMA(20) at 0.8349 and the overnight 0.8345 swing low on the higher-lows trendline.
Support: 0.83494, 0.83449, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.8368, 0.8400
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8345 swing low and the higher-lows trendline breaks the sequence and exposes the EMA(50) near 0.8326
Stalling under the 0.8368 week high with RSI capped below 76.9 keeps the bearish divergence active; acceptance above opens the 0.8400 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8311 Thu low would push price back into the CPI rally fib 38.2% zone near 0.8294
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, followed by Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday's low; tight 0.8345-0.8364 range on Friday.
The week's impulse ran from Tuesday's 0.8174 low after the hotter US CPI print in the NY session, and Thursday's NY session pushed it to 0.8361 on firm Fed-hike pricing. Friday's Asia session set a marginal week high at 0.8364 with RSI(14) at 71 against 76.9 on Thursday's peak, a bearish divergence, and ATR has eased from 10.5 to 8.9 pips. Price has held above EMA(20) at 0.8348, with the Friday low at 0.8345 extending the higher lows from Thursday's 0.8311.
Support: 0.83476, 0.83449, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.83638, 0.8400
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC today, then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.8345 Friday low and EMA(20) breaks the higher-lows line
Close above the 0.8364 week high resumes the uptrend, with the 0.8400 round number next
Failure to hold the 0.8311 Thursday low puts the 23.6% retracement of the week's impulse near 0.8319 in play
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday; Asian consolidation under the week high.
The hot US CPI print on Tuesday started a stair-step advance from the 0.8174 low. Each NY session from Tuesday to Thursday extended the leg, the last one into the 0.8364 week high early Friday, with the rising EMA(20) catching each pullback. That marginal new high came with RSI(14) at 71 against 76.9 on Thursday's push, a mild bearish divergence. RSI has since cooled to 55.8, and price is sitting on the ema20 and the rising trendline from Wednesday's low in a narrow Asian range.
Support: 0.83467, 0.8337, 0.83226
Resistance: 0.83638, 0.8400
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the ema20 at 0.8347 and the rising trendline puts the higher-low sequence under test, with the prior high at 0.8337 next
Failure to hold the 0.8337 prior high, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the week's rally, exposes the ema50 near 0.8323
A close above the 0.8364 week high reopens the advance toward the 0.8400 round number
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, followed by Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Tuesday; tight consolidation 0.8349–0.8364.
USDCHF has climbed about 190 pips from Tuesday's 0.8174 London-open low. Tuesday's hotter US CPI and Wednesday's NY session drove the main legs as Fed hike pricing firmed. Each dip has set a higher low, at 0.8245 Wednesday and 0.8311 Thursday, and price holds above a rising EMA(20) at 0.8347, now compressing between the 0.8349 friday low and the 0.8364 week high as ATR eases to 8.2 pips. RSI(14) hit 76.9 at Thursday's NY peak but only 71 on Friday's marginal Asia-session high, a mild bearish divergence.
Support: 0.8349, 0.83465, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.83638, 0.8400
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8349 friday low and the ema20 near 0.8347 breaks the consolidation floor and tests the higher-low trendline
H1 close above the 0.8364 week high extends the uptrend and opens the path toward the 0.8400 round number
Loss of the 0.8311 thursday low breaks the higher-low sequence; the 23.6% fib of the CPI impulse sits near 0.8319
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%), followed by Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows; tight consolidation under week high.
USD/CHF has climbed about 190 pips off Tuesday's 0.8174 London-open low; the hot US CPI print drove the NY-session breakout, and Thursday's NY session pushed on to a week high at 0.8364 in Asia. Price is holding just above EMA(20) at 0.8346. RSI(14) has cooled from 76.9 to 61 and printed a lower peak at the week high, a mild bearish divergence, while ATR compresses to 8.4 pips. Dips stayed shallow this week: Thursday's London-session pullback held at the thu low of 0.8311, well above the 38.2% fib of the week's rally near 0.8291, with the wed high at 0.8337 as intermediate support.
Support: 0.83455, 0.83374, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.83638, 0.8400
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
H1 close below ema20 at 0.8346 exposes the wed high at 0.8337 and turns the consolidation into a deeper pullback
Failure to hold the thu low at 0.8311 breaks the higher-low sequence and brings the 38.2% fib near 0.8291 into view
H1 close above the week high at 0.8364 resumes the uptrend toward the 0.8400 round number
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday; pullback toward EMA(20) after stall at 0.8364.
USD/CHF has climbed roughly 190 pips off Monday's 0.8174 week low. The two big legs came in the NY session: Tuesday's hot US CPI and Thursday's rally as December Fed-hike pricing firmed. Price stalled at the 0.8364 week high in Asia, where RSI(14) peaked at 71 versus 76.9 on the prior high. That is a bearish divergence, with RSI now easing to 59.9 and price holding just above the EMA(20) at 0.8345. Wednesday's high at 0.8337, the 50% retrace of Thursday's leg, and Thursday's low at 0.8311 frame the higher-low sequence beneath.
Support: 0.83449, 0.8337, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.83638, 0.8400
What it said to watch
H1 close below the EMA(20) and higher-lows trendline near 0.8343 exposes the wed high at 0.8337 and the 50% retrace of Thursday's leg
Failure to hold the thu low at 0.8311 breaks the higher-low sequence in place since Wednesday
Close above the 0.8364 week high negates the bearish divergence and opens the 0.8400 round number
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%), then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday; holding above broken 0.8337 prior high.
USDCHF has climbed roughly 190 pips off Tuesday's 0.8174 London low. The leg ignited on the hotter US CPI print (0.4% vs 0.3%) and extended through successive NY sessions as Fed-hike pricing firmed. Thursday's London dip held a higher low at 0.8311, and the NY session then broke Wednesday's 0.8337 prior high, with the move tagging a 0.8364 week high early in Asia. Price sits above EMA(20) at 0.8344 and EMA(50) at 0.8318, but RSI(14) has eased to 64.3 from 76.9 and printed a lower peak on the new high, a mild bearish divergence, while ATR compresses to 8.6 pips.
Support: 0.83444, 0.83374, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.83638, 0.8400
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; Bowman and Daly follow in NY hours
H1 close below ema20 at 0.8344 puts the 0.8337 prior high retest in play
Failure to hold the 0.8311 higher low breaks the rising support sequence
H1 close above the 0.8364 week high negates the RSI divergence and opens the 0.8400 round number
Higher highs and higher lows from the 0.8174 week low; prior high 0.8337 broken.
USD/CHF has climbed about 190 pips off Tuesday's 0.8174 week low. The hot US CPI print drove the NY-session leg higher, and Thursday's NY session cleared the 0.8337 prior high before a 0.8364 week high printed in early Asia. Price holds above a rising EMA(20) at 0.8343, but RSI(14) read 71 at the new high against 76.9 on Thursday, a mild bearish divergence, while ATR eases back to 8.8 pips.
Support: 0.83434, 0.83374, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.83638, 0.8400
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 0.8337 prior high would turn Thursday's breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.8311 swing low breaks the higher-lows sequence of this week's rally
A sustained move through the 0.8364 week high puts the 0.8400 round number in view
US PPI at 13:30 UTC today, followed by Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Repeated H1 closes below the ema20 at 0.8343 would mark the first loss of trend support since Wednesday
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday; broke Wednesday's prior high.
USD/CHF has climbed about 190 pips from Tuesday's 0.8174 low. The hot US CPI print started the leg during NY hours, and Thursday's NY session, helped by hawkish Fedspeak, carried price through Wednesday's 0.8337 prior high after London had dipped to a 0.8311 swing low. Price holds above a rising EMA(20) at 0.8343 and EMA(50) at 0.8315 with the higher-lows trendline intact; RSI(14) at 71 is overbought but made a lower high versus 76.9 as Asia edged to a 0.8364 week high, while ATR has eased to 8.8 pips.
Support: 0.83425, 0.83374, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.83638, 0.8400
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
H1 close back below the 0.8337 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8311 swing low breaks the higher-lows sequence and the CPI impulse fib 23.6% near 0.8319
H1 close above the 0.8364 week high extends the uptrend toward the 0.8400 round number
Pullbacks testing the ema20 at 0.8343 show whether the trend cycle is still intact
00:02 UTC
Uptrend, overbought into week high · RSI 73 · price 0.83625
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday; breakout above 0.8337 prior high.
USD/CHF is up roughly 155 pips from Monday's 0.8207 open. The impulse from the 0.8174 Tuesday low started on the hot US CPI print in NY hours and ran through Wednesday as December Fed-hike pricing firmed. Thursday's London dip held at the 0.8311 thu low, near former highs. The NY session then carried the pair through the 0.8337 prior high to a fresh week high at 0.8362, with price above a rising EMA(20) at 0.8341 and EMA(50) at 0.8313. RSI(14) at 72.6 is overbought but below its 76.9 peak from Thursday's NY push, a modest loss of momentum on the marginal new high.
Support: 0.83408, 0.83374, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.83625, 0.8400
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 0.8337 prior high and ema20 (0.8341) would turn the breakout into a false break
Break of the higher-lows trendline from Tuesday's low, then the 0.8311 thu low, would end the higher-low sequence
Hold above the 0.8362 week high leaves the 0.8400 round number as the next marked level
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.3%) plus Bowman and Daly afterwards could materially shift this read