Lower highs since 0.8395 CPI peak; brief break of 0.8227 neckline reclaimed.
The Wednesday NY spike to 0.8395 on hot US CPI fully reversed. Falling US yields and dovish Fed-speak drove a steady slide through Thursday's Asia and London sessions, and hot PPI and retail sales failed to stop it. Friday's NY session closed one hour below the 0.8227 neckline and printed a week low at 0.8218. A bounce to the 0.8260 bounce high then faded back under EMA(20) near 0.8247, leaving RSI(14) around 40 after holding a 30–45 band through the decline.
Support: 0.8227, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8260, 0.8282, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8218 week low turns the neckline break into a confirmed lower-low
Reclaim of the 0.8260 bounce high and the 0.8282 asian high brings the 0.8300 round number and the 38.2% retracement of the post-CPI decline (~0.8286) into play
Weekend IMF meetings and Fed-speak on October/December hike pricing could gap the pair at the open
US Treasury yield direction remains the main driver of the CHF bid this week
17:04 UTC
Downtrend, momentum easing on NY bounce · RSI 46 · price 0.82547
Lower highs from 0.8395 post-CPI peak; week-low probe at 0.8218 rejected, price back at EMA(20).
USD/CHF has printed a run of lower highs since Wednesday's post-CPI peak at 0.8395. The slide came from falling US yields and a softer dollar, not Swiss data. London pressed to 0.8223 today, then NY probed a week low at 0.8218 and reversed, breaking the lower-highs trendline and lifting price back onto EMA(20) near 0.8254, with RSI(14) at 46 after a bullish divergence versus the 23 reading earlier in the session. The bounce has stalled at the 23.6% fib of the 0.8395–0.8218 drop around 0.8260, with EMA(50) near 0.8277 and the Asia high at 0.8282 overhead.
Support: 0.8254, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8260, 0.8282, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.8260 (23.6% fib) opens EMA(50) at 0.8277 and the Asia high at 0.8282
Reclaiming the 0.8300 round number would put price back inside Thursday's range and neutralise the lower-high sequence
Slipping back below EMA(20) and closing under the 0.8218 week low confirms a lower-low, with 0.8189 next
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and weekend IMF / Fed headlines could reprice yields into the weekly close
Lower highs since Wednesday's 0.8395 peak; false break below 0.8227.
USD/CHF has printed lower highs since Wednesday's CPI spike to 0.8395 reversed in the NY afternoon. Thursday's Asia-London slide and Friday's London open extended the drop as US yields fell and the dollar slid despite hot data. Friday's NY session pushed through the 0.8227 dt neckline to a 0.8218 week low, then snapped back, leaving a false break with RSI(14) near 39 and price pressing the descending trendline and ema20 + tl confluence at 0.8250.
Support: 0.8227, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8250, 0.8282, 0.8306
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.8250 (ema20 + tl) breaks the lower-high sequence; the 0.8282 asia high then becomes the next cap
Fib 50% of the 0.8395–0.8218 decline sits at 0.8306, the upper bound of any retracement read
H1 close back below the 0.8227 dt neckline and 0.8218 week low cancels the false break and exposes 0.8189
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and weekend IMF Fed commentary could gap or shift this read into Monday
Lower highs and lower lows since 0.8395, testing 0.8227 confluence.
USD/CHF has printed lower highs since Wednesday's post-CPI rejection at 0.8395. Thursday's hot US data spike to 0.8316 faded within the NY session as falling US yields kept the dollar offered, and Friday's London session broke the 0.8264 prior-day low. A NY-open bounce to the 0.8251 lower high was rejected before a fresh week low at 0.8218; price now sits below ema20 (~0.8245) and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 31, testing the 0.8227–0.8230 confluence, while the 38.2% fib of the 0.8395 drop sits at 0.8286.
Support: 0.8227, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8245, 0.8251, 0.8264
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8218 week low clears the 0.8227 confluence and exposes 0.8189
H1 close back above the lower highs trendline and the 0.8264 prior-day low breaks the lower-high sequence
Weekend IMF meetings and any Fed remarks on December hike pricing could materially shift this read into Monday's open
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 0.8395 peak.
The week's decline has run from Wednesday's 0.8395 post-CPI high through a string of lower highs. Thursday's PPI-hour spike was capped at 0.8316, and Friday's London session pushed to a 0.8223 week low as falling US yields and dovish Fed remarks weighed on USD. Demand stepped in just above the 0.8227 neckline, producing a 25-pip bounce into the hot import-price print. Price still sits below the 0.8257 ema20 and the lower-highs trendline, with Thursday's 0.8264 prior low aligning with the 23.6% retracement, and RSI(14) has lifted from sub-30 to the mid-30s.
Support: 0.8223
Resistance: 0.8257, 0.8264, 0.8282
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC lands in the current bar and could materially shift this read
An H1 close below the 0.8223 week low and 0.8227 neckline confirms a fresh lower-low
Acceptance above the 0.8257 ema20 and the 0.8264 prior low would break the lower-highs sequence and open the 0.8282 Friday high
12:02 UTC
Downtrend, extended and oversold · RSI 26 · price 0.82312
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 0.8395 peak.
Wednesday's CPI spike to the 0.8395 week high reversed within the same NY session. The pair has printed lower highs along a falling trendline since, as falling US yields and AI-led risk aversion kept the USD heavy despite hot PPI and retail sales. Thursday's NY session broke the 0.8270s, and Friday's London open extended the slide to a 0.8223 week low. That briefly dipped under the 0.8227 double-top neckline, but no hourly close has held below it. Price sits below EMA(20) near 0.8256, which also lines up with the lower-highs trendline and the Thursday low (thu low) at 0.8264. RSI(14) is pinned near 26, reflecting a stretched move.
Support: 0.8223, 0.8189
Resistance: 0.8256, 0.8264, 0.8300
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.8227 neckline and the 0.8223 week low confirms the double-top break, exposing next support at 0.8189
Recovery through ema20 at 0.8256 and the 0.8264 thu low would break the lower-highs trendline
A move back above the 0.8300 round number would undo Thursday's NY breakdown and reach the 50% retracement zone
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC today could shift the read; this week's strong US data has been faded
11:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 25 · price 0.8230
Lower highs from 0.8395, range break below 0.8261.
The week's dominant move is the decline from Wednesday's post-CPI NY-session spike to 0.8395, with Thursday's NY-open push to 0.8316 on hot PPI and retail sales faded as UST yields fell, and Friday's Asian high at 0.8282 forming the latest lower high. The London open broke Thursday's 0.8261 low (thu low, now near EMA(20) ~0.8262) and extended to a week low at 0.8223, close to the 0.8227/0.8220 confluence flagged in the macro read. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) (~0.8286), with RSI(14) near 25 in oversold territory and no bullish divergence against Thursday's lows.
Support: 0.82234, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.82612, 0.82822, 0.8300
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above 0.8261 (thu low, EMA(20)) would mark the Friday range break as a false break
Sustained trade below the 0.8223 week low exposes the 0.8200 round number
A reclaim of the 0.8282 asian high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence, with the 0.8300 pivot and the 38.2% fib of the decline (~0.8289) just above
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4% m/m) could materially shift this read, though US data beats have been faded all week
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 0.8395 peak.
Wednesday's CPI spike to 0.8395 during NY hours fully reversed. Since then H1 has printed lower highs at the 0.8316 PPI high on Thursday and the 0.8282 Asia high on Friday, and the London open broke Friday's Asian range to a fresh week low at 0.8241. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 31; the slide tracks lower Treasury yields and AI-led risk aversion rather than the hot US data.
Support: 0.8241, 0.8230, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8282, 0.8316
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8230 confluence extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8200 round number
Recovery above the EMA(20) near 0.8270 and the 0.8282 Asia high breaks the lower-highs trendline
38.2% of the decline fib from 0.8395 sits near 0.8300, below the 0.8316 PPI high
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC and moves in Treasury yields could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.8241 week low keeps RSI(14) pressing oversold territory
09:02 UTC
Downtrend, extending to new weekly lows · RSI 31 · price 0.82418
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 0.8395 high.
Since Wednesday's post-CPI spike to 0.8395 reversed in NY hours, H1 has printed a run of lower highs. Falling Treasury yields and AI-related risk aversion outweighed hot US PPI and retail sales. The London session took out Thursday's low and the Asian range low this morning, pressing to a London low of 0.8241, with price below EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) near 31. The 0.8227 double-top neckline sits just beneath, and the asia high at 0.8282 is the latest lower high.
Support: 0.8241, 0.8227, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.8264, 0.8282, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8227 neckline extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 0.8200 round number, then 0.8189
Recovery back above the thu low at 0.8264 would mark this morning's push as a false break
Close above the asia high at 0.8282 breaks the lower-highs trendline. The 0.8300 fig, which aligns with the 38.2% retracement of the Wednesday-Friday drop, sits above
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (16:15 broker) could materially shift this read, with US yields the main driver
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 0.8395 spike; Friday Asian range broken lower.
USD/CHF has printed lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's post-CPI spike to 0.8395 reversed. Falling US yields and AI-debt risk-off outweighed Thursday's hot PPI and retail sales beats, with the heaviest selling in Thursday's Asia session and again after the NY data. Friday's asian high at 0.8282 capped the rebound under EMA(20), and the London open broke the 0.8261 prior low for a fresh week low at 0.8241, with RSI(14) near 35 soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.8241, 0.8227, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.8261, 0.8282, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8227 neckline confirms the double top, with the 0.8200 round number next
Reclaim of the 0.8261 prior low and EMA(20) would signal the London break is failing; the 0.8282 asian high sits near the lower highs line
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%): a firm beat with rising yields could lift price toward the 0.8300 figure, the 38.2% fib of the post-CPI drop
Hold above the 0.8241 week low into NY hours keeps the Asian-range break unconfirmed
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 0.8395 spike.
Wednesday's CPI spike to 0.8395 in the NY session reversed hard into Thursday's Asian session. Every bounce since has printed a lower high, including the PPI high at 0.8316, which was rejected as falling US yields outweighed the hot data. Price sits below EMA(20) near 0.8272 and below EMA(50), RSI(14) is at 33, and after the Friday asia high at 0.8282 capped the bounce, early London has pushed to a fresh week low at 0.8259.
Support: 0.8259, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8282, 0.8300, 0.8316
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 0.8259 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8227 neckline
Close back above the lower-highs line and the asia high at 0.8282 would break the sequence of lower highs
Reclaim of the 0.8300 figure and the PPI high at 0.8316, near the 38.2% fib, would undercut the downtrend read
A new low with RSI(14) holding above Thursday's trough would mark bullish divergence
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4% m/m) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.8395, compressing near week low.
Wednesday's CPI-driven spike to 0.8395 failed above the early-week range, and the move fully reversed from late NY into the Asia session. Thursday's NY session pushed to new lows after the hot PPI as falling yields outweighed the data. Lower highs have stepped down from the 0.8316 lower high to Friday's 0.8282 Asian high, with the week low at 0.8261. Price sits just below EMA(20) near 0.8277, and RSI(14) is near 40 as the Asian range compresses at the lows.
Support: 0.8261, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8282, 0.8300, 0.8316
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8282 Asian high and EMA(20) breaks the lower-highs line, exposing the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8261 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8227 neckline
Reclaim of the 0.8316 lower high, near the 38.2% fib of the post-CPI drop, invalidates the downtrend read
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) in the NY session could materially shift this read; recent hot US prints have been faded
05:03 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading near the lows · RSI 35 · price 0.82665
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 0.8395 high; tight 0.8261–0.8282 base.
USDCHF has unwound the week's gains since Wednesday's CPI spike to 0.8395 was rejected in the same NY session. The pair has since printed lower highs and lower lows as falling Treasury yields outweighed the hot US PPI and retail beats, and Thursday's post-PPI pop to the 0.8316 lower high faded within the hour. Price holds below the ema20 near 0.8280 and EMA(50) near 0.8299, with Friday's Asian rebound capped at 0.8282, while RSI(14) set a higher low near 29 at the 0.8261 week low versus 24 on Thursday, a bullish divergence at the base of the move.
Support: 0.8261, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8280, 0.8300, 0.8316
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the ema20 near 0.8280 and the lower-high trendline would mark the first break in this week's lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8261 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8227 double-top neckline
Reclaim of the 0.8300 round number and the 0.8316 lower high (near the 38.2% fib) invalidates the downtrend read
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC and the direction of Treasury yields could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 0.8395 spike high.
Wednesday's CPI spike to the 0.8395 week high reversed during NY hours, and the slide extended through Thursday's Asia and NY sessions as falling Treasury yields outweighed hot US PPI and retail sales. Thursday's NY bounce stalled at 0.8316, leaving a lower high, and price now sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) in the mid-30s. Friday's Asia session has held a tight range from the 0.8261 week low to the 0.8282 Asia high, with the EMA(20) capping that range near its top.
Support: 0.82612, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.82822, 0.83162, 0.8395
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8282 Asia high and EMA(20) would break the lower-highs sequence from 0.8316
Failure to hold the 0.8261 week low exposes the 0.8227 neckline flagged in the macro digest
Reclaiming the 0.8316 lower high, near the 38.2% retracement of the week drop, would put the 0.8395 week high back in focus
Fed Chair Warsh's 03:30 UTC remarks and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Wednesday's 0.8395 spike; tight base above the week low.
Wednesday's CPI spike to 0.8395 was a false break above the 0.8335–0.8348 range and was fully reversed. Falling US yields and AI-related risk aversion drove the slide, outweighing Thursday's hot PPI and retail sales beats. Thursday's NY-session lower high at 0.8316, the 38.2% retracement of the week's drop, capped the bounce. Price has since based between the 0.8270 ny low and the 0.8261 week low, with the Asia-session recovery stalling at the ema20 near 0.8283 and well under the 0.8300 weekly open. RSI(14) near 45 has made a higher low against the lower price low, a bullish divergence that the price structure has not yet confirmed.
Support: 0.82704, 0.82612, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8283, 0.83001, 0.83162
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read; US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC is the next data point
An H1 close back above the ema20 at 0.8283 and then the 0.8300 weekly open would challenge the lower-highs sequence
A break above the 0.8316 lower high (38.2% fib) would mark the first higher high since the 0.8395 top
Failure to hold the 0.8270 ny low and the 0.8261 week low extends the downtrend toward the 0.8227 neckline flagged in the macro digest
Lower highs from 0.8395, week low 0.8261, shallow Asian bounce.
Wednesday's hot US CPI lifted USD/CHF out of the early-week 0.8330–0.8350 range to 0.8395 during NY hours. The breakout reversed fully into Thursday's Asia session. Thursday's PPI spike to 0.8316 was sold, leaving a lower high, as falling US yields and AI-driven risk aversion outweighed the data. The selling extended to a week low at 0.8261. Price is now in a shallow Asian bounce, back below the 0.8300 week open and capped just under EMA(20) near 0.8285, with RSI(14) recovering to around 41 from the lows.
Support: 0.8261, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8285, 0.8300, 0.8316
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish hike-timing signal is the main upside risk
H1 close back above the 0.8300 week open would neutralise the lower-high sequence; the 0.8316 lower high is the next cap
Failure to hold the 0.8261 week low confirms a fresh lower low and exposes the 0.8227 dt trigger flagged in the digest
Repeated H1 closes below EMA(20) near 0.8285 keep the bounce corrective
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) is a secondary catalyst during NY hours
01:03 UTC
Downtrend since Wednesday's 0.8395 high, Asia bounce stalling · RSI 40 · price 0.82794
Lower highs and lower lows; probing descending trendline below EMA(20).
The week's dominant move came in Wednesday's NY session. A CPI-driven spike to 0.8395 met rejection and fully reversed, then falling US yields and AI-related risk aversion extended the drop through Thursday's Asia and NY sessions, with the PPI beat producing only a whipsaw to the 0.8270 ppi low. Lower highs at 0.8316 and just under the 0.8300 round number have tracked a descending trendline from the week high, and Friday's Asia bounce off the 0.8261 week low is now probing that line just under EMA(20) near 0.8286, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 0.8270, 0.8261, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8286, 0.8300, 0.8316
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.8300 round number and the 0.8316 lower high would break the lower-high sequence; Thursday's bounces stalled near the 23.6% fib of the 0.8395–0.8261 drop (~0.8293)
Rejection at EMA(20) keeps the descending trendline in play
Failure to hold the 0.8270 ppi low and 0.8261 week low would extend the lower-low sequence toward 0.8227, the double-top neckline flagged in the macro read
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 0.8395 peak.
Wednesday's hot US CPI spiked USD/CHF out of the Monday–Tuesday 0.8313–0.8349 range to the 0.8395 week high in the NY session. That move failed, and the reversal cut back through the range, with the heaviest leg coming in Thursday's Asia session as US yields fell on AI-debt risk aversion. Thursday's post-PPI pop in the NY session stalled at the 0.8316 lower high, then flushed to the 0.8270 PPI low before a 0.8261 week low printed at Friday's open; price is now recovering toward EMA(20) near 0.8286 with RSI(14) around 41, still below the lower-high trendline.
Support: 0.8270, 0.8261, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8286, 0.8300, 0.8316
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (~3.5h); this could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.8300 round number and the lower-high trendline would break the lower-high sequence, with the 0.8316 lower high next
Failure to hold the 0.8270 PPI low and 0.8261 week low extends the lower-low pattern toward the 0.8227 news pivot
Repeated caps at EMA(20) near 0.8286 keep the downtrend structure intact; the 23.6% reversal fib sits just above at 0.8293