21:04 UTC
Uptrend, testing first major pullback · RSI 50 · price 0.82391
HH/HL chain since Aug 20 low, potential double top at 0.8382/0.8395.
USDCHF has built a higher-high, higher-low chain since the Aug 20 swing low at 0.7950. Wednesday's CPI-driven spike to 0.8395 stalled just above the Oct 1 high at 0.8382, shaping a potential double top. Dovish Fed remarks and falling US yields then drove a two-day drop of roughly 120 pips. That drop pierced the 0.8227 neckline intraday on Friday before the bar closed at 0.8239, above the rising ema50 near 0.8216. Price now sits back below the ema20 and the rising trendline from the August low. The 0.8227 neckline also lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the Aug–Oct rally, while RSI has cooled to around 50.
Support: 0.8227, 0.8216, 0.8183
Resistance: 0.8281, 0.8300, 0.8395
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 0.8227 neckline would confirm the double top and break the higher-low chain, exposing the 0.8183 swing low and the 50% retracement of the Aug–Oct rally near 0.8172
- Sustained trade below the ema50 at 0.8216 would end the swing-trend filter's support for the uptrend
- A reclaim of the ema20 near 0.8281 and the 0.8300 round number would restore the uptrend read, with the 0.8395 double top as the cap
- US housing data on Tue and S&P Global PMIs on Fri could reprice US yields, the main driver of this week's reversal