21:04 UTC
Uptrend stalling, rolling over from highs · RSI 44 · price 0.82569
Double top at 0.8382/0.8395, neckline 0.8218-27 under test.
USDCHF climbed from the August low at 0.7950 to a 0.8395 peak on 14 Oct after hot US CPI and PPI, but that high only marginally cleared the 1 Oct top at 0.8382, forming a double top. The 15 Oct drop of more than 80 pips followed dovish Fed commentary and a slide in yields. It broke the rising trendline from the August low and sent price to the 0.8218-27 neckline, which sits on the 38.2% retracement. Daily closes have held above the neckline for four sessions. Price is now below EMA20 but still above a rising EMA50, and the round number at 0.8300 has capped every bounce this week.
Support: 0.8218, 0.8120, 0.7950
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8395
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 0.8218 neckline confirms the double top and puts the 61.8% fib near 0.8120 in focus
- Daily close back above the 0.8300 round number weakens the double top read
- Friday's US flash PMIs and next week's FOMC decision could materially shift this read
- A deeper unwind toward the august low at 0.7950 would put the quarter-long uptrend in question