Lower highs from 158.35; Tue–Thu range broken Friday, bounce into 38–50% retracement.
The FOMC spike to 158.35 was rejected, and the Tue–Thu 157.60–158.35 range broke on Friday. The BoJ's hawkish hold drove the Asia-session break, and London extended it to the 156.96 fri low as falling US yields weighed on the dollar. The NY rebound stalled at the 157.64 fri ny high, near the 50% retracement of the FOMC high–Fri low drop. Monday's week open at 157.47 coincides with EMA(20), and price is holding just above both but still sits under EMA(50) near 157.60.
Support: 157.47, 157.26, 156.96
Resistance: 157.64, 157.74, 158.13
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.64 fri ny high and 50% retracement would put price back inside the old 157.60 range floor
A break above the 157.74 london high would end the lower-high sequence and open the 158.13 thu high
Failure to hold the 157.47 week open / EMA(20) exposes the 157.26 ny swing low, then the 156.96 fri low
US ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC, f/c 54.6) and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Wednesday's 158.35 spike; Tue–Thu 157.60–158.35 range broken lower Friday.
Wednesday's post-Fed spike to the 158.35 week high was rejected. The Tue–Thu 157.60–158.35 range then gave way Friday, as the BoJ's hawkish hold and falling US yields pushed the pair to a 156.96 week low into the London-NY transition. NY hours printed a higher low at 157.26 and a rebound back above EMA(20) near 157.45, but the bounce stalled at 157.64, the NY high and 50% fib of the week decline, right under the lower highs trendline. RSI(14) near 47 sits mid-range, with price still below EMA(50).
Support: 157.45, 157.26, 156.96
Resistance: 157.64, 157.82, 158.35
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.64 NY high and the lower highs trendline opens the 61.8% fib at 157.82
Failure to hold the 157.26 higher low puts the 156.96 week low back in focus
Slip back below EMA(20) at 157.45 would undo Friday's NY rebound
ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.7, Prices Paid 77.5) could materially shift this read