Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum accelerating · RSI 34 · price 157.654
Range broken, fresh lower low.
USDJPY collapsed roughly 640 pips off the 163.98 area after coordinated MoF intervention and the BoJ hold, shattering the multi-week 162-164 range and now printing fresh lows at 157.51. The bounce attempts stalled below 160.88 and the pair is closing near session lows with both EMAs stacked far overhead. ATR(14) has expanded sharply from sub-30 pip compression to ~150 pips as the down-leg extends.
Support: 157.51
Resistance: 160.00, 160.88
What it said to watch
- H4 close back above 160.00 would neutralize the breakdown read
- Failure to hold 157.51 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
- Labor Cash Earnings Aug 4 23:30 UTC and BoJ minutes could reprice the yen sharply
- Renewed intervention risk flagged above 162 caps any recovery
21:02 UTC
Sharp reversal, downtrend after intervention · RSI 35 · price 157.654
Double top rejection, breaking to fresh lows.
USD/JPY collapsed from a double top near 163.9 after MoF intervention flushed it ~500 pips lower to 157.96, ending a multi-week grind higher. Price then chopped in a 158.5-160.9 band before this bar closed at fresh lows below the 158.00 spike-low support. ATR(14) is sharply elevated, reflecting the intervention-driven expansion rather than orderly trend.
Support: 157.51
Resistance: 158.54, 160.00, 160.88
What it said to watch
- H4 close back above 160.00 would neutralize the breakdown read
- Failure to hold 157.51 confirms continuation lower
- Labor Cash Earnings Aug 4 23:30 UTC could reprice the JPY read
- intervention risk flagged above 162 on any recovery