Broke above the post-selloff 157.78–157.96 range, now at the 61.8% retrace.
Trump's Iran no-strike pledge pulled US yields and oil lower, knocking USD/JPY from the 158.37 prior high to a 157.52 swing low late in the NY session. Early Asia session has since lifted price out of the 157.78–157.96 range. It is now pausing just under the 158.12 session high at the 61.8% retrace of that drop, with RSI(14) near 63.
Support: 157.96, 157.78, 157.52
Resistance: 158.12, 158.30
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.96 range top would mark the break as a false break and put the 157.78 rollover low back in play
A close above the 158.12 session high reopens the 158.30 london top, where the prior London range capped price
Loss of the rising lows from 157.78 undercuts the recovery read
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations plus Fed's Collins (Fri 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
23:31 UTC
Recovering after NY sell-off, short-term higher lows · RSI 67 · price 158.032
Higher low at 157.78 in early Asia, reclaimed 158.00 and testing the 61.8% fib of the NY drop.
NY flushed USDJPY from the 158.365 NY high to the 157.52 NY low as US yields eased and Trump ruled out an Iran strike. Early Asia set a higher low at 157.78, then cleared the 157.96 bounce high. Price is now pressing the 61.8% fib at 158.04, with RSI(14) near 67.
Support: 157.96, 157.78, 157.52
Resistance: 158.04, 158.10, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.10 london low puts the 158.365 ny high back in view
Slip back below the 157.96 bounce high returns price to the 157.78–157.96 Asian range
Loss of the 157.78 asian low exposes the 157.52 ny low again
Intervention or MoF headlines and US yield moves can override intraday structure; UoM sentiment Fri 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk
23:16 UTC
Downtrend off NY high, early-Asia recovery · RSI 60 · price 157.947
London range broken lower; lower high at 157.96 now being retested.
The NY afternoon slide from the 158.365 session high broke the 158.05–158.30 London range and hit 157.515 (NY low) as US yields eased and Trump ruled out Iran strikes. Early Asia has lifted price off the 157.78 late-NY low and back into the 157.96 bounce high, which is also the fib 50% of the drop; RSI(14) is near 60.
Support: 157.78, 157.515
Resistance: 157.96, 158.05, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.96 bounce high would shift the focus to the 158.05 swing low and fib 61.8%
Rejection at 157.96 and a break of the 157.78 late-NY low would confirm a lower high and put the 157.515 NY low back in view
US 10y yield moves and MoF intervention headlines drive JPY through Asia; UoM sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC sit beyond this window
Tight 157.78–157.96 range after NY slide, lower high under the fib.
NY session cut 85 pips from the 158.37 day high to a 157.52 day low as US yields pulled back on Iran de-escalation, briefly sweeping the prior Asian low near 157.58. Since then price has held a narrow 157.78–157.96 range into early Asia, with the bounce high capped at the 50% retrace and the late low at 157.78 holding after the rollover dip.
Support: 157.78, 157.52
Resistance: 157.96, 158.04, 158.37
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.96 bounce high opens the 61.8% fib at 158.04
Failure to hold the 157.78 late low exposes the 157.52 day low
Only a recovery through the 158.37 day high would erase the NY selloff
US 10y yield moves and Iran headlines remain the main driver; UoM sentiment Fri 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk
22:46 UTC
Down after NY flush, now flat · RSI 51 · price 157.869
Tight range below 50% retrace of the NY selloff.
NY session broke the 158.10–158.30 London range and flushed from the 158.37 day high to the 157.52 NY low, as Treasury yields eased after Trump ruled out Iran strikes. The bounce stalled at the 157.96 range high, the 50% retrace of the NY selloff. Price has since compressed between the 157.78 range low and 157.96 through rollover, pinned at EMA20 with RSI(14) near 51.
Support: 157.78, 157.515
Resistance: 157.96, 158.10, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.96 range high (50% retrace) opens the 158.10 breakdown area, then the 158.37 day high
Failure to hold 157.78 range low exposes the 157.52 NY low
Tokyo open liquidity could break the compressed range; ATR has shrunk to ~6.5 pips
Fri 14:00 UTC UoM sentiment and inflation expectations could materially shift this read
22:31 UTC
Post-selloff consolidation, below EMAs · RSI 54 · price 157.866
Tight 157.78–157.96 box under the 50% fib of the NY drop.
The NY session reversed from 158.365 to 157.515 as Treasury yields eased and Iran de-escalation drained USD support, briefly sweeping the Asia low near 157.58. The bounce stalled at the 157.958 bounce high near the 50% retracement, and price has since held a 157.78–157.96 box into early Asia, just under EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 157.78, 157.515
Resistance: 157.958, 158.05
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.958 bounce high puts the 158.05 range floor of the London range back in play
Break below the 157.78 session low reopens the 157.515 NY low
Thin Asia calendar; Friday's UoM sentiment and inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
22:16 UTC
Down after NY selloff, now flat · RSI 51 · price 157.855
Post-selloff range 157.78–157.96 below 50% fib.
NY session reversed from the 158.37 day high in an 85-pip slide to the 157.52 NY low, breaking the 157.58 Asia low as Treasury yields pulled back on Trump's Iran de-escalation comments. The rebound stalled at the 157.96 bounce high, near the 50% retracement of the NY slide. Price has since held a 157.78–157.96 range through rollover, just below EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 157.78, 157.58, 157.52
Resistance: 157.96, 158.05, 158.37
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.96 bounce high reopens 158.05, the prior low and 61.8% of the NY slide fib
Failure to hold the 157.78 range low exposes the 157.58 Asia low and 157.52 NY low
Thin early Asia session; US yield moves and intervention headlines remain the swing factors
Tight 157.78–157.93 box after 50% retrace of NY drop.
USD/JPY fell 85 pips during NY hours, from the 158.365 day high to the 157.515 swing low, as Treasury yields pulled back and Trump's Iran de-escalation drained the oil premium. The rebound was rejected at 157.958, near the 50% selloff fib. Price is now compressing between 157.78 and 157.93 into rollover, below EMA20, with highs stepping lower.
Support: 157.78, 157.515
Resistance: 157.958, 158.00, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.958 rebound high breaks the lower-high sequence and brings the 158.00 round number into play
Failure to hold the 157.78 range low reopens the 157.515 swing low
Thin rollover and early Asia session liquidity; US yield direction remains the main intraday driver
UoM sentiment and 1Y/5Y inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:46 UTC
Downtrend after late-NY selloff, now basing · RSI 41 · price 157.793
Lower high at 157.96 after a sweep below the Asian low, tight 157.78–157.93 range.
A pullback in Treasury yields during late NY hours dropped USDJPY from the 158.365 day high through the Asian low at 157.58 to a 157.515 day low. The rebound stalled at the 157.96 rebound high, near the 50% retrace. Price is now pressing the 157.78 range low in thin post-rollover trade, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 157.78, 157.58, 157.515
Resistance: 157.96, 158.12
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.78 range low reopens the 157.58 Asian low and the 157.515 day low
Hold above the 157.515 day low keeps the sweep-and-rebound read intact
Close above the 157.96 rebound high, near the 50% retrace, shifts focus to the 158.12 breakdown level
Thin Asia session liquidity; next scheduled risk is US prelim UoM sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC
Lower highs inside 157.79–157.96 box after NY session sell-off.
NY session fell from the 158.37 session high to a 157.52 day low, sweeping the 157.58 asian low, as Trump's Iran de-escalation pulled US yields lower. The rebound drew rejection at the 157.96 bounce high, right at the 50% retracement of the drop fib. Price has since printed lower highs and sits on the 157.79 range floor into rollover.
Support: 157.79, 157.58, 157.52
Resistance: 157.96, 158.05, 158.37
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.79 range floor exposes the 157.58 asian low and 157.52 day low
Close above the 157.96 bounce high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 158.05 pivot low
Thin rollover liquidity ahead of Asia session; Fri 14:00 UTC UoM sentiment and inflation expectations could materially shift this read
21:16 UTC
Down after late-NY drop, now basing · RSI 47 · price 157.841
Post-selloff consolidation 157.80–157.96 below the 50% retrace.
The London-NY range (158.10–158.30) gave way late in NY hours: price fell from the 158.365 session high to the 157.515 day low as US yields eased after Trump ruled out Iran strikes. The rebound stalled at the 157.958 bounce high near the 50% retrace, and price has since held a thin 157.80 range low into the broker rollover.
Support: 157.80, 157.58, 157.515
Resistance: 157.958, 158.10, 158.365
What it said to watch
A close below the 157.80 range low reopens the 157.58 asian low and the 157.515 day low
A close above the 157.958 bounce high, beyond the 50% retrace, exposes the old 158.10 range floor and then the 158.365 session high
Rollover liquidity into Asia is thin, so moves off this range may be erratic
Iran headlines and US yields drive the next leg; UoM sentiment and inflation expectations are due Fri 14:00 UTC
21:03 UTC
Sharp NY sell-off, now basing sideways · RSI 45 · price 157.89
False break of London high, 85-pip drop, tight consolidation below 50% fib.
Early in the NY session price pushed above the London high to a session high at 158.37, then reversed to a 157.52 session low as Trump ruled out Iran strikes and US yields eased. The rebound stalled at the 157.96 bounce high, near the 50% fib. Into the late-NY close price is holding a 157.80–157.96 range, just under EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 45.
Support: 157.80, 157.52
Resistance: 157.96, 158.37
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.96 bounce high opens the 61.8% fib near 158.04
Loss of the 157.80 range floor exposes the 157.52 session low
Thin Asia session liquidity ahead; Fri 14:00 UTC UMich sentiment and inflation expectations could materially shift this read
NY hours reversed from the 158.37 session high as Trump's Iran comments pulled US yields lower. The drop broke the 157.58 Asian low and printed the 157.52 NY low. The rebound stalled at the 157.96 bounce high, near the 50% fib, and price is now holding a 157.80 range floor into the late-NY rollover, with EMA20 flat overhead.
Support: 157.80, 157.58, 157.52
Resistance: 157.96, 158.00, 158.37
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.96 bounce high and 158.00 round number puts the 61.8% fib near 158.04 in play
Failure to hold the 157.80 range floor reopens the 157.58 Asian low and 157.52 NY low
Further US yield moves on Iran/oil headlines into the Asia session could break the consolidation
NY flush to 157.515 swept the Asia low; rebound capped at the 50% fib, now basing 157.80–157.96.
USD/JPY dropped 85 pips in NY from the 158.365 day high to 157.515 after Trump ruled out Iran strikes and yields eased. The move undercut the 157.58 Asia low before the rebound. The bounce stalled at the 157.958 rebound high, at the 50% fib, and since then price has held a tight base at 157.80 into the post-NY lull, sitting just under EMA20.
Support: 157.80, 157.58, 157.515
Resistance: 157.958, 158.116, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.958 rebound high / 50% fib opens the 158.116 breakdown point (61.8% near 158.04)
Failure to hold the 157.80 base re-exposes the 157.58 Asia low and 157.515 ny low
Day high at 158.365 caps the session; reclaim would negate the NY selloff
Iran / US yield headlines remain the driver; UMich and Collins Fri 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk
20:16 UTC
Short-term downtrend, stalling in late NY · RSI 44 · price 157.857
NY sell-off from 158.365 swept the Asian low; tight 157.80–157.96 consolidation since.
NY ran to a 158.365 high before an 85-pip drop to the 157.515 day low as Trump ruled out Iran strikes and US yields eased. The drop swept the 157.58 Asian low and reversed. The bounce stalled near the 50% fib at the 157.958 bounce high, and price has since compressed above the 157.80 range floor after London close, below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 157.80, 157.58, 157.515
Resistance: 157.958, 158.10, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.958 bounce high and EMA20 reopens the 158.10 London base
Loss of the 157.80 range floor exposes the 157.58 Asian low and 157.515 day low
Retest of the 158.365 NY high needs the London base reclaimed first
Iran headlines or a further US yield move could break the late-NY range; Fri 14:00 UTC UMich data and Collins are the next scheduled risk
20:01 UTC
Down-leg from NY high, now basing · RSI 43 · price 157.882
NY session topped at 158.365, then slid 85 pips to the 157.515 day low, sweeping the Asian low at 157.58 as US yields eased after Trump ruled out Iran strikes before the midterms. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 50% retrace of that slide near 157.96. Price is now compressing above the 157.80 late-NY base, below EMA20, with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 157.80, 157.515
Resistance: 157.96, 158.10
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.96 50% retrace opens a retest of the 158.10 london floor
Failure to hold the 157.80 late-NY base exposes the 157.515 day low
Thin liquidity into the Asia session open can extend the 157.80–157.96 compression
UMich sentiment and inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Range break lower from 158.10–158.37, now basing 157.80–157.96.
The NY session broke the day's 158.10–158.37 range lower. Price fell from the 158.37 day high to a 157.52 NY low after Trump ruled out Iran strikes and US yields eased. Late in NY, the rebound stalled at 157.96 near the 50% fib, and price is coiling above the 157.80 swing low, below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 157.80, 157.58, 157.52
Resistance: 157.96, 158.10, 158.37
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.96 rebound high and 50% fib reopens the 158.10 breakdown level.
Failure to hold the 157.80 swing low exposes the 157.58 Asia low and 157.52 NY low.
Reclaim of 158.10 would negate the range break and put the 158.37 day high back in view.
Iran headlines and US yield moves into the Asia session remain the main driver; UoM inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk.
Lower high at 157.96 after a sweep of the Asian low; tight post-NY consolidation.
The NY afternoon dropped from the 158.365 session high to a 157.515 swing low, sweeping the 157.58 Asian low as US yields eased after Trump's Iran comments. The rebound stalled at the 157.96 rebound high, near the 50% retracement. Price is now holding a 157.80 consol base after the NY close.
Support: 157.80, 157.58, 157.515
Resistance: 157.958, 158.10, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.96 rebound high opens the 158.10 breakdown zone and the 61.8% retracement
Failure to hold the 157.80 consol base exposes the 157.58 Asian low and the 157.515 swing low
Recovery through 158.365 session high needed to negate the down-leg
Thin calendar into Asia; US yields and Iran headlines remain the driver before Friday's UoM
London range broken lower in NY; lower high at 157.96 after the Asian low was swept.
USDJPY fell 85 pips from the 158.365 day high during NY hours as US yields eased after Trump ruled out an Iran strike. The drop broke the London range and swept the asian low at 157.58, reaching a 157.515 swing low. The rebound stalled at the 157.96 bounce high near the 50% retrace of the drop. Price is now drifting toward the 157.80 micro base late in NY, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 157.80, 157.58, 157.515
Resistance: 157.958, 158.04, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.96 bounce high reopens the 158.04 fib 61.8 retrace
Failure to hold the 157.80 micro base exposes the 157.58 asian low and the 157.515 swing low
Fri 14:00 UTC UoM sentiment and inflation expectations are the next scheduled driver for this read
London range broken lower, NY low below Asian low, lower high at 157.96.
Late NY: after a 158.37 session high, USD/JPY broke below the 158.10 london low and fell 85 pips to the 157.52 ny low, sweeping the 157.58 asian low as US yields eased on Trump's Iran comments. The bounce met rejection at the 157.96 bounce high near the 50% fib, and price now sits on the 38.2% at 157.84 with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 157.80, 157.58, 157.515
Resistance: 157.96, 158.10, 158.365
What it said to watch
A break of the 157.80 minor low exposes the 157.58 asian low and the 157.52 ny low
An M15 close above the 157.96 bounce high and the falling trendline weakens the lower-high read
A return above the 158.10 london low puts the breakdown in question
Fri 14:00 UTC UoM sentiment and inflation expectations are the next event risk; a shift in US yields drives the pair until then
18:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend after sharp late-NY drop · RSI 40 · price 157.869
Day range broken lower, lower high forming under 50% fib.
A NY-hours slide after Trump ruled out Iran strikes and US yields eased took USD/JPY out of the 158.05–158.36 day range from the 158.365 session high. It swept the asia low at 157.58 to a 157.515 session low. The rebound high at 157.958 stalled near the 50% fib of the drop, and price is fading back under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 157.705, 157.58, 157.515
Resistance: 157.958, 158.10, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.10 breakdown level negates the range break read
Failure to hold the 157.705 higher low exposes the asia low and the 157.515 session low
Clearance of the 157.958 rebound high opens a retest of 158.10
Thin JPY calendar into Asia; US yield moves remain the main driver of this read
Late-NY retrace of the 158.365–157.515 drop, stalling near 50% fib.
NY sold off from the 158.365 NY high, breaking the London range and its 158.10 London low, then swept the Asian low at 157.58 down to 157.515 as US yields pulled back and Trump's Iran comments eased haven USD demand. The late-NY rebound is capped at the 157.96 rebound high, near the 50% fib retracement, with price just under EMA20.
Support: 157.70, 157.58, 157.515
Resistance: 157.96, 158.10, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.96 rebound high and 50% fib opens a retest of the 158.10 London low
Failure to hold the 157.70 higher low exposes the 157.58 Asian low and 157.515 NY low
Thin post-NY liquidity: US 10Y yield moves or Iran headlines could shift this read
Range break lower, sweep of Asian low, now retracing.
A selloff from the 158.365 day high broke the 158.05–158.30 London/NY range. It swept the asian low at 157.58 to a session low of 157.515 as US yields pulled back and Trump ruled out pre-midterm Iran strikes. The rebound has stalled at the 50% fib near 157.94 after London close. Price is below both EMAs, with RSI(14) around 41.
Support: 157.70, 157.58, 157.515
Resistance: 157.94, 158.05, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ny swing low at 158.05 (61.8% fib) would put price back inside the prior range
Failure to hold the 157.70 rebound base reopens the asian low at 157.58 and the session low at 157.515
US yield direction and Iran headlines remain the driver into Fri 14:00 UTC Michigan sentiment / UoM inflation expectations
London range broken lower; Asia low swept, shallow bounce.
NY session reversed from the 158.37 session high and broke the 158.05–158.30 London range. Price slid through 158.00 and swept the 157.58 Asia low to a 157.52 NY low as UST yields pulled back and Trump's Iran comments trimmed the haven USD bid. The late-NY bounce is stalling at the 157.76 bounce high, below the 38.2% NY selloff fib near 157.84, with RSI(14) back to ~37 after dipping below 30.
Support: 157.58, 157.52
Resistance: 157.76, 158.00, 158.37
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 158.00 round number, near the 61.8% NY selloff fib, would undo the range-break read
Failure to hold the 157.52 NY low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.40–157.55 zone
Holding above the 157.58 Asia low keeps the sweep-and-reclaim read intact into the Asia session
Michigan sentiment and UoM inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; US yields and Iran headlines drive until then
London-NY 158.10–158.37 range broken lower; lower highs since 158.365.
Late-NY selling took USDJPY from the 158.365 session high to the 157.515 session low in six bars. The drop broke the London-NY range and the 157.58 asian low as Trump's Iran de-escalation headline sapped haven USD demand. RSI(14) is near 26, ATR has expanded to ~11 pips, and price is pausing just above the asian low.
Support: 157.58, 157.515
Resistance: 157.80, 158.00
What it said to watch
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
A close back above the 157.80 breakdown level, near the 38.2% selloff fib at 157.84, would undo the range break; the 158.00 round number sits above
Failure to hold the 157.515 session low extends the lower-low sequence
False break above Asian high, then lower low below 158.05 inside Asian range.
NY pushed through the asia high at 158.28 to a session high of 158.365. It was rejected and slid 57 pips to a drop low of 157.797 as Trump's Iran de-escalation headline sapped haven USD demand. The ny low at 158.05 has given way, leaving price mid Asian range after London close with RSI(14) near 31, and the asia low at 157.58 is the next reference below.
Support: 157.797, 157.58
Resistance: 158.05, 158.28, 158.365
What it said to watch
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the ny low at 158.05 and the 50% fib near 158.08 would neutralise the lower-low sequence
Failure to hold the 157.797 drop low exposes the asia low at 157.58
Reclaiming the asia high at 158.28 would reopen the session high at 158.365
NY high rejected, lower low through the London-day floor.
Late NY reversed hard from the 158.365 NY high, a brief false break of the 158.30 London high. Price then cut through the 158.10 london floor and 158.00 psych to the 50% fib of the Asia low-to-NY high move near 157.97, a slip that came despite the firm USD backdrop from the FOMC minutes. RSI(14) ~33 is soft but not oversold, and the last hour's bars ran roughly double the ~9-pip ATR.
Support: 157.90, 157.72, 157.58
Resistance: 158.00, 158.10, 158.365
What it said to watch
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 157.90 swing low (61.8% fib) exposes the 157.72 asia pivot and the 157.58 asia low
M15 close back above the 158.10 london floor would turn the breakdown into a false break; 158.00 psych is the first cap
False break above London high, back inside 158.10–158.30 range.
NY broke above the London high at 158.30 to a 158.365 session high, then a sharp rejection returned price to the 158.10 London low, making it a false break of the London-hours range. Price is back below EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) near 44, and the USD bid from the hawkish FOMC minutes has stalled into late NY hours.
Support: 158.10, 158.05
Resistance: 158.30, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.05 ny low breaks the London-NY range floor and the NY swing fib
Recovery and close above the 158.30 london high reopens the 158.365 session high
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
London range 158.05–158.30; NY false break above the range top to 158.365, now back mid-range.
After the Asia session dip to 157.58 was bought, hawkish FOMC-minutes yield support kept the pair boxed between the 158.05 NY low and the 158.30 London high. The NY push to a 158.365 day high failed. The 16:15 UTC bar then reversed about 18 pips to a 158.12 spike low, a false break above the range top that has retraced roughly 62% of the NY leg fib. Price sits at 158.16, below EMA20/50, with RSI neutral near 47.
Support: 158.116, 158.048
Resistance: 158.303, 158.365
What it said to watch
Close below the 158.12 spike low exposes the 158.05 NY low and the range floor
M15 close back above the 158.30 London high negates the false break and reopens the 158.365 day high
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC: October-hike commentary could move yields and this read
Higher low at 158.05 in NY, brief break of the 158.30 London cap.
The 157.58 Asia-session low was fully recovered after the Japan Current Account beat failed to lift the yen. The London cap at 158.30 held through the session, then NY dipped to the 158.05 ny low before a rally to a 158.365 session high on firm USD and yields. Price is back at 158.28, retesting the London cap with the ema20 and the 50% fib of the NY leg near 158.20 below.
Support: 158.20, 158.05
Resistance: 158.30, 158.365, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back under 158.20 (ema20 / 50% fib) turns the NY push into a false break of the London cap
Loss of the 158.05 ny low prints a lower low and returns price to the London range
Clearance of the 158.365 session high exposes the 158.50 round number
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
16:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, fresh 24h high in NY · RSI 61 · price 158.323
Higher low at 158.05, break above London high.
NY session cleared the London high at 158.30 to print a 24h day high at 158.365, after buyers defended the NY low near 158.05. The early Asia flush to 157.58 is fully retraced along a rising support line as hawkish FOMC minutes and firm US yields keep USD supported. RSI(14) at 61 is not stretched.
Support: 158.30, 158.05
Resistance: 158.365, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.30 london high would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 158.05 ny low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising support line
158.50 prior high, the recent probe level, is the next area to watch for rejection or break
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
15:46 UTC
Sideways after Asia recovery, upper half of range · RSI 59 · price 158.259
158.05–158.30 box since Asia; NY higher low back to range top.
The Asia-session flush to 157.58 was fully reversed, and USD/JPY has since held a 158.05–158.30 box with firm yields after the hawkish FOMC minutes. The NY dip held the 158.05 ny low and has rebounded to retest the range top near 158.30, which has capped five times today. RSI(14) is near 59.
Support: 158.10, 158.05
Resistance: 158.30, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.30 range top opens the 158.50 psych level, today's earlier probe area
Failure to hold the 158.10 london low and 158.05 ny low breaks the box lower
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC, around London close, could materially shift this read
Rebound holding above the 61.8% of the ny rebound fib keeps the range-top retest intact
158.05–158.30 range since Asia rally; price back at range top.
After the Tokyo-open low at 157.58, the Asia rally stalled at the 158.30 range top, which capped London four times. NY dipped to the 158.05 NY low after US claims, then recovered with firm US yields to retest the range top. Price sits just above the ema20 near 158.20, and RSI(14) at 56 is mid-range.
Support: 158.20, 158.10, 158.05
Resistance: 158.30, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.30 range top opens the 158.50 prior high
Loss of the 158.10 london low, then the 158.05 ny low, breaks the range floor and puts the Asia rally fib in play
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC, about 2h out, during late NY hours could materially shift this read
Rejection at 158.30 a fifth time keeps the range intact into London close
15:17 UTC
Sideways after Asian V-recovery · RSI 54 · price 158.243
158.05–158.30 range; flat lows, highs capped through London.
Asian session flushed to 157.58, then fully reversed. London met rejection at the 158.30 london high three times, and the NY dip held the 158.05 ny low. The rebound has retraced ~78% of that pullback to 158.24, with firm US yields after the FOMC minutes keeping the pair supported.
Support: 158.05, 157.90
Resistance: 158.30, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.30 london high breaks the range and opens the 158.50 range cap
Loss of 158.05 ny low exposes the 157.90 prior low
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
ATR ~7 pips during late NY hours; a stall below the 78.6% retracement keeps the range intact
15:02 UTC
Intraday range, recovering from NY dip · RSI 56 · price 158.229
158.05–158.30 range after Asia rally; NY lower highs broken.
Asia session dropped to 157.58, then rallied through 158.20 on the hawkish FOMC minutes and firm yields. London capped at the 158.30 session high. NY slipped through the london low to a 158.05 ny low around Kashkari's remarks, holding just above the 38.2% of the asian rally fib, then reclaimed it and broke the NY descending trendline; price is mid-range at 158.23 with RSI(14) at 56.
Support: 158.05, 157.90
Resistance: 158.30, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.30 session high breaks the range and opens the 158.50 round number
Close back below the 158.05 ny low negates the london low reclaim and exposes 157.90 prior low
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could shift this read via yields
Lower highs and lower lows below the 158.30 London cap.
London stalled three times at the 158.30 london high (rejection), and the NY session has printed lower highs down to a 158.05 ny low. That low is a ~35% retrace of the asia rally from the 157.58 asian low. Price is back at 158.16, below EMA20 and sitting on a flat EMA50, with RSI(14) ~43; firm US yields after the hawkish FOMC minutes have kept dips shallow so far.
Support: 158.05, 157.90, 157.58
Resistance: 158.24, 158.30
What it said to watch
Fed's Kashkari (speaking now, 14:40 UTC) and Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read; pushback on a December hike is the main USD downside risk
M15 close below the 158.05 ny low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 38.2% of the asia rally (~158.03) and the 157.90 prior low
M15 close back above the 158.24 ny high breaks the lower highs trendline and puts the 158.30 london high back in play
14:31 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs through NY · RSI 33 · price 158.079
London range 158.16–158.30 broken lower, LH/LL chain since 12:00 UTC.
London stalled at 158.30, only a marginal rejection above the Asian high near 158.28. NY has since broken the 158.16 london low via a lower-high sequence, testing the 158.055 session low with RSI(14) near 33, while price nears the 38.2% retrace of the Asian rally (~158.03) even as US yields stay firm after the FOMC minutes.
Support: 158.055, 157.95, 157.58
Resistance: 158.16, 158.243, 158.303
What it said to watch
Kashkari 14:40 UTC and Musalem 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 158.055 session low and the 38.2% fib exposes the 157.95 rollover low
Recovery above the 158.16 london low and the lower-highs line negates the NY pullback; 158.243 lower high is next
157.58 asian low remains the overnight floor of the window
14:16 UTC
Range-bound, drifting lower into early NY · RSI 38 · price 158.125
London range 158.10–158.30, lower highs since 12:15 UTC.
The Tokyo-open flush to the 157.58 Asian low was fully reclaimed. London then stalled under the 158.30 London high, with repeated rejection in the 158.29–158.30 area. Early NY is printing lower highs (158.24) into the 158.10 range floor, with RSI(14) near 38 and price below both EMAs, and the firm 197K claims print drew no USD follow-through.
Support: 158.10, 157.90, 157.58
Resistance: 158.24, 158.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.10 range floor opens the 157.90 Asian pivot, the 38.2% retracement of the Asian low–London high leg near 158.03 sitting between
Close back above the 158.24 lower high neutralises the NY fade; 158.30 London high caps the range
Kashkari 14:40 UTC and Musalem 17:40 UTC; pushback on further hikes could extend the slide toward the 157.58 Asian low
14:01 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London · RSI 38 · price 158.128
Lower highs from 158.30, testing London low.
The Asia rebound from 157.58 off the 157.90 asia base, lifted by hawkish FOMC minutes and firm yields, stalled at the 158.30 session high in London. Lower highs have formed since, and price is now pressing the 158.10 London low early in NY. The 197K claims beat produced only a brief bounce; RSI(14) is near 38 and ATR(14) around 6 pips.
Support: 158.10, 158.03, 157.90
Resistance: 158.24, 158.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.10 London low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 158.03 fib 38.2 of the Asia rally
Close above the 158.24 lower high and the descending trendline neutralises the pullback read, with the 158.30 session high back in focus
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC and Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via US front-end yields
13:46 UTC
Range-bound after overnight recovery, drifting lower in NY · RSI 46 · price 158.176
London capped at 158.30 session high; NY printing lower highs into 158.13.
The Tokyo-open dip to the 157.58 overnight low was fully reversed as hawkish FOMC minutes and firm yields pushed the pair back toward 158.30. London repeatedly stalled under the 158.30 session high, and early NY hours show lower highs and a new NY low at 158.13. Price sits just under EMA20, with the claims beat adding no lift.
Support: 158.126, 158.09, 157.58
Resistance: 158.303, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.09 swing low exposes the 38.2% retrace of the Asia rally near 158.03
Break of the NY lower-highs line and a close above the 158.30 session high opens the 158.50 weekly high
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC, roughly an hour out, and Musalem at 17:40 UTC could shift yields and this read
13:31 UTC
Sideways after Asia dip recovery, momentum fading · RSI 41 · price 158.166
158.10–158.30 range, lower highs under range top.
The Asia-session flush to 157.58 was fully reversed on hawkish-FOMC-minutes USD demand. Since then price has held a 158.10–158.30 range, with the range top rejected four times through London. Early NY is now pressing the session low near 158.155 after claims (197K vs 200K) gave little lift; RSI(14) sits near 41 and price is under EMA20.
Support: 158.155, 158.10, 158.027
Resistance: 158.30, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below 158.155 session low exposes the 158.10 london low; losing that opens the fib 38.2 of the Asia rally at 158.03
Close above the 158.30 range top invalidates the lower-high sequence and brings the 158.50 weekly high into view
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC and Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
13:16 UTC
Sideways after Asia V-recovery, momentum fading · RSI 42 · price 158.189
158.10–158.30 range since London open; lower highs into NY.
The Asia session flush to 157.58 fully reversed as hawkish FOMC minutes and firm US yields kept USD bid. Price has since held a 158.10–158.30 range through London. Early NY is printing lower highs under the 158.30 london high, with the 158.16 session low the nearest support and RSI(14) drifting near 42.
Support: 158.16, 158.10, 158.03
Resistance: 158.30, 158.385, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.30 london high breaks the range cap and brings the 158.385 prior high and 158.50 weekly high into view
Failure to hold the 158.10 london low exposes the fib 38.2 of the Asia rebound near 158.03
Lower-highs line from 158.30 caps price unless broken; a loss of the 158.16 session low extends the sequence
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC and Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via Dec hike pricing
13:02 UTC
Flat after Asia recovery, compressing · RSI 50 · price 158.231
Tight 158.16–158.30 range, higher lows under flat cap.
The early-Asia drop to 157.58 was fully reversed as hawkish FOMC minutes and firm US yields kept USD bid. London has compressed under a flat 158.30 session high, with a rising support line from the 158.09 asia pb low. Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC only produced a brief dip to the 158.16 london low, and RSI(14) sits neutral near 50 into the London-NY transition.
Support: 158.16, 158.09
Resistance: 158.30, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.30 session high opens the path to the 158.40 prior high
Break of rising support and the 158.16 london low exposes the 158.09 asia pb low
Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could break the compression
Claims actual is not yet in the feed; a late repricing could shift this read
12:46 UTC
Sideways after Asia recovery, momentum flat · RSI 53 · price 158.232
Tight 158.10–158.30 range through London, flat top capping.
Firm US yields after the hawkish FOMC minutes drove a full Asia recovery from 157.58 to 158.30. Price has since held a 20-pip London range, with the 158.30 session high capping about six tests. The 12:30 UTC claims bar dipped to the 158.16 claims low and recovered; RSI(14) is neutral near 53 and ATR(14) has compressed to about 7 pips.
Support: 158.16, 158.10, 157.94
Resistance: 158.30, 158.40, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.30 session high opens the 158.40 prior high, then the 158.50 weekly high
Failure to hold the 158.10 london low breaks the range and exposes the fib 50% of the Asia recovery near 157.94
Jobless claims actual (not yet in feed) and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could break the compressed range
12:31 UTC
Sideways after Asia recovery, momentum flat · RSI 49 · price 158.216
158.09–158.30 range; rising higher-low trendline broken at 12:15 UTC.
Asia flushed to 157.58 at the Tokyo open, then reversed from the 157.90 Asia base. London held a 158.09–158.30 range with three rejections at the range top while lows stepped higher along a rising trendline. The 12:15 UTC bar broke that line to a 158.16 pre-NY low as US Claims hit, with USD still underpinned by the hawkish FOMC minutes and firm yields.
Support: 158.16, 158.09, 157.90
Resistance: 158.30, 158.40, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.30 range top opens the 158.40 prior high, then the 158.50 round number
Failure to hold the 158.16 pre-NY low exposes the 158.09 London low and range floor
Reclaim of the broken rising trendline restores the higher-low sequence
Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 200K) and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
12:16 UTC
Recovered from Asia dip, now flat and compressing · RSI 56 · price 158.276
Tight 158.20–158.30 range with higher lows under a flat cap.
Asia's early slide to 157.58 was fully retraced, and London has since compressed into a 10-pip band, with the 158.30 session high rejected five times while higher lows build off the 158.20 range floor. The hawkish FOMC minutes and firm US yields keep USD supported into the London-NY transition, but price has not cleared yesterday's NY prior high at 158.40.
Support: 158.20, 158.10
Resistance: 158.30, 158.40
What it said to watch
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) is the immediate catalyst for a break of the 158.20–158.30 range
M15 close above the 158.30 session high opens the 158.40 prior high from yesterday's NY session
Loss of the rising lows and a close below the 158.20 range floor exposes the 158.10 london low
Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could shift the read during NY hours
12:01 UTC
Recovering, compressing under session high · RSI 60 · price 158.291
Higher lows into flat 158.30 cap.
Asia sold off to 157.58 and then fully recovered. Through London, price has compressed beneath the 158.30 session high on a chain of rising lows from the 158.10 London low, with hawkish FOMC minutes and firm US yields keeping the pair underpinned. RSI(14) sits near 60 and ATR is about 5.5 pips, so bars are tight ahead of NY.
Support: 158.22, 158.10
Resistance: 158.30, 158.40, 158.50
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) is the likely catalyst to resolve the compression; a sub-190K print puts the 158.40 prior high in play
M15 close above the 158.30 session high opens the 158.40 prior high, then the 158.50 round number
Loss of the rising lows near 158.22 and then the 158.10 London low exposes the 50% retrace of the Asia rally near 157.94
Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could shift the read later in NY hours
11:47 UTC
Asia recovery stalled, sideways in London · RSI 54 · price 158.232
Higher lows pressing a flat 158.30 cap.
USD/JPY rebounded from the 157.58 Asia low on hawkish FOMC minutes and firm UST yields. London has compressed into a 158.10–158.30 box, with a rising-low line from the london low under a session high at 158.30 rejected four times. Price is now testing the 158.20 higher low and sits on EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and ATR about 6 pips into late London.
Support: 158.20, 158.10, 158.03
Resistance: 158.30, 158.40, 158.50
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could break the box in the first hour of NY
M15 close above the 158.30 session high opens the 158.40 prior high, then the 158.50 range cap
Loss of the 158.20 higher low and the rising-low line exposes the 158.10 london low; below that sits the 158.03 fib 38.2
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC is a second NY-session catalyst
11:31 UTC
Uptrend, compressing under session high · RSI 63 · price 158.286
Higher lows since the Asian low, flat cap at 158.30.
USDJPY has fully recovered the Asia-session dip to the 157.58 asian low and is pressing the 158.30 london high. Higher lows at 158.10 and 158.20 sit on a rising trendline as firm USD on the hawkish FOMC minutes outweighs Japan's current account beat. RSI(14) is near 63 and ATR about 6 pips, a tight late-London box ahead of US claims.
Support: 158.20, 158.10, 157.58
Resistance: 158.30, 158.397, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.30 london high opens the 158.40 prior high, then the 158.50 range top
Loss of the 158.20 higher low and the rising trendline puts the 158.10 london low back in play
A slide back through 158.03, the 38.2% retrace of the asian low rebound, would undo the session's higher-low chain
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
11:16 UTC
Uptrend, compressing under session high · RSI 59 · price 158.264
Higher lows beneath a flat 158.30 cap.
USDJPY has retraced the whole early-Asia drop to the 157.58 asia low as hawkish FOMC minutes and firm Treasury yields kept USD bid. London has built rising lows from the 158.09 london low toward the 158.20 swing low, while the 158.30 session high has capped three tests. RSI(14) near 59 and ATR(14) about 6 pips point to compression ahead of US claims.
Support: 158.20, 158.09, 157.58
Resistance: 158.303, 158.397, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.30 session high opens the 158.40 prior high, then the 158.50 range top
Break of the rising lows trendline and the 158.20 swing low exposes the 158.09 london low
Fib 38.2% of the asia low to session high leg sits near 158.03, below the london low
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and Fed's Kashkari 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows through London, capped near session high.
USD/JPY has retraced the entire early-Asia drop to the 157.58 overnight low, with hawkish FOMC minutes and firm US yields keeping USD bid. Late in the London session, price is coiling just under the 158.30 session high on a higher-low chain from the 158.10 London low. ATR is compressed near 5.5 pips and RSI(14) sits around 59, holding above the 158.20 swing low.
Support: 158.201, 158.101, 157.58
Resistance: 158.303, 158.397
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.30 session high opens the 158.40 prior high
Break of the 158.20 swing low, then the 158.10 London low, breaks the higher-low trendline
Fib 38.2% of the Asia low to session high move sits near 158.03, the next reference below 158.10
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
10:46 UTC
Recovered from Asia dip, compressing below 158.30 · RSI 56 · price 158.244
Tight 158.09–158.30 box since 03:00 UTC, rising lows.
USDJPY reversed the early-Asia dip to the 157.58 asia low as hawkish FOMC minutes kept US yields bid, and has held a 158.09–158.30 box since. London set a marginal new london high at 158.30 on a line of rising lows, while RSI(14) near 56 and an ATR of about 7 pips show compression into the NY session.
Support: 158.20, 158.09, 157.58
Resistance: 158.303, 158.397, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the london high at 158.30 opens the prior high at 158.40, then the 158.50 range cap
Break of the rising lows line and the london low at 158.20 shifts focus to the range floor at 158.09, near the 23.6% of the asia rebound fib
Loss of the 158.09 range floor exposes the 38.2% asia rebound fib near 158.03, with the asia low at 157.58 below
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Sideways after Asia V-recovery · RSI 56 · price 158.219
Tight London range 158.10–158.30 beneath prior high.
The Asia sell-off to 157.58 fully reversed on the firm post-FOMC USD tone, and London has since held a tight range between the 158.10 range low and the 158.30 session high. The 10:00 UTC push to the session high met rejection, and RSI(14) sits mid-50s with ATR near 6 pips.
Support: 158.10, 157.90
Resistance: 158.30, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.30 session high puts the 158.40 prior high from yesterday's London session in play
Break below the 158.10 range low exposes yesterday's 157.90 NY low and the 38.2% retracement of the Asia low rebound near 158.03
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and Kashkari 14:40 UTC could break the London range
10:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since Asia · RSI 58 · price 158.264
HL chain off the 157.58 Asian low, London pressing the Asian high.
Asia session swept below yesterday's 157.90 swing low to 157.58, then fully recovered as the USD stayed firm after the hawkish FOMC minutes. The strong Japanese current account print did not lift the yen. London has held a london low near 158.09–158.10 and is pressing the Asian high at 158.28, with the session high at 158.30 and RSI(14) at a neutral 58.
Support: 158.09, 157.896, 157.58
Resistance: 158.303, 158.397, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 prior high opens the 158.50 range top, the cap flagged in the macro digest
Failure to hold the 158.09 london low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 157.90 swing low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, early in NY hours, could materially shift this read
Intervention rhetoric near the 158.50–158.70 range top could trigger sharp yen spikes
10:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, grinding higher in London · RSI 63 · price 158.293
Higher lows through London, pressing the Asian high.
USDJPY has recovered the entire early-Asia drop to 157.58, helped by a firm USD after the hawkish FOMC minutes. London has printed a higher-low chain from 158.10 to 158.19 along the rising trendline and is now edging just past the 158.28 Asian high, with yesterday's 158.40 prior high next overhead.
Support: 158.28, 158.19, 158.10
Resistance: 158.40, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.19 higher low breaks the London trendline and HL chain
Close above the 158.40 prior high clears the window top toward the 158.50 range cap
Failure to hold above the 158.28 Asian high would mark the break as a false break
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and Kashkari 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia rally fib 38.2% near 158.03 is the deeper reference if the London low at 158.10 gives way
09:46 UTC
Recovery uptrend, compressing below the Asian high · RSI 58 · price 158.24
Higher lows from 158.10 under a flat 158.28 cap.
The Asia-session rebound from 157.58 stalled at the 158.28 Asian high. Mid-London, the pair is compressing in a 158.10–158.28 band on a firm USD and post-minutes yields, with a higher low at 158.14 and price holding above the 23.6% retrace of the Asian rally.
Support: 158.14, 158.10
Resistance: 158.28, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.28 asian high opens the 158.40 prior high from yesterday's session
Loss of the 158.10 london low breaks the higher-low line and points to the 38.2% retrace near 158.01
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and Kashkari 14:40 UTC could break the London compression either way
09:31 UTC
Sideways after Asia V-recovery · RSI 55 · price 158.219
Tight 158.10–158.28 range in upper half of Asian range.
The early-Asia drop to the 157.58 asian low was fully retraced by 03:00 UTC on the firm USD backdrop from the hawkish FOMC minutes. Price has since held a 158.10–158.28 range. In the London session, the range high capped two pushes and the range low held at the London open. RSI(14) is neutral near 55, and ATR is compressed around 7 pips.
Support: 158.10, 157.90, 157.58
Resistance: 158.28, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.28 range high opens the 158.40 prior high from yesterday's London session
Failure to hold the 158.10 range low shifts focus to the 38.2% fib near 158.01, then the 157.90 ny low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could break the London range
A break below the 157.90 ny low reopens the 157.58 asian low
09:16 UTC
Recovered from Asia flush, now flat · RSI 53 · price 158.224
Tight 158.09–158.28 range after V-shaped rebound.
The early-Asia drop below the ny low to 157.58 was fully reversed. Since then price has compressed between the 158.09 range low and the 158.28 asia high, holding above the 23.6% of the asia rebound fib. London is about two hours in, with a higher low at 158.14 but no test of the asia high, as firm US yields after the hawkish FOMC minutes keep dips shallow.
Support: 158.14, 158.09, 157.90
Resistance: 158.28, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.28 asia high opens the path to the 158.40 prior high
Failure to hold the 158.09 range low turns the read back toward the 157.90 ny low
Loss of the 158.14 higher low would flag London fading the range top
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and Kashkari 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Recovered from Asia low, now compressing · RSI 53 · price 158.228
Higher lows vs lower highs below 158.28 Asia high.
Asia dipped to 157.58, undercutting yesterday's 157.90 swing low, then reclaimed it and rallied to the 158.28 Asia high as firm US yields outweighed beats in Japan's data. London has held 158.10–158.27, with higher lows and lower highs compressing into a pennant; RSI(14) is neutral near 53.
Support: 158.10, 157.90, 157.58
Resistance: 158.28, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.28 Asia high breaks the pennant top and puts the 158.40 prior high in focus
Loss of the 158.10 London low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 157.90 swing low, near the 38.2% of the Asia rally fib
Below 157.90, the 157.58 Asia low comes back into view
Waller remarks now and US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could resolve the compression
08:31 UTC
Neutral, ranging after Asia rebound · RSI 50 · price 158.19
Tight 158.09–158.28 range capping a V-shaped recovery from the 157.58 Asia low.
USD/JPY flushed to the 157.58 asia low early in the Asia session, then recovered sharply as the yen faded strong current-account data. London has held inside a 158.09 range low to 158.28 range high box, with two rejections near the top and RSI(14) flat at 50.
Support: 158.09, 157.90, 157.58
Resistance: 158.28, 158.40
What it said to watch
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC, now) and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could break the range either way
M15 close above the 158.28 range high opens the 158.40 prior high from yesterday's London session
Loss of the 158.09 range low exposes the 38.2% rebound fib near 158.01, then the 157.90 ny low
Any MoF or Japan fiscal headline could override the range read
08:16 UTC
Sideways after Asia V-recovery · RSI 46 · price 158.163
London holding a tight 158.09–158.28 range in the upper Asian range.
Asia broke below Wednesday's NY low at 157.90, flushed to 157.58, then reversed through a 157.74 swing low back to 158.28. The yen gave back gains despite the current account beat. London has since stayed inside a 158.09–158.28 range, holding above the 23.6% of the Asia rally fib, with supply capping along lower highs under the 158.40 prior high and RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 158.09, 157.90, 157.74
Resistance: 158.28, 158.40, 158.50
What it said to watch
Waller at 08:30 UTC lands mid-range and could materially shift this read
M15 close above 158.28 range high breaks the lower highs line and opens the 158.40 prior high, then the 158.50 half figure
Failure to hold 158.09 range low exposes the 157.90 NY low, near the 50% of the Asia rally fib
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) is the next NY session catalyst
08:01 UTC
Neutral after V-shaped Asian recovery · RSI 49 · price 158.174
Tight 158.09–158.28 range below Asian high, London inside.
Early Asia swept down to the 157.58 asian low, then the full drop reversed by 03:00 UTC as the yen faded the current account beat. Since then price has compressed in a 158.09–158.28 band below the asian high, with London open so far holding above the 158.09 london low. RSI(14) is flat near 49 and ATR(14) is about 8 pips, so momentum is neutral inside the range.
Support: 158.09, 157.90, 157.58
Resistance: 158.28, 158.40
What it said to watch
Waller at 08:30 UTC could break the 158.09–158.28 range
M15 close above the 158.28 asian high exposes the 158.40 prior high
Loss of the 158.09 london low reopens the 157.90 prior low
Holding above the 38.2% fib retrace keeps the Asian recovery intact; below 157.90 the asian low at 157.58 comes back into view
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) is the next scheduled volatility point
07:46 UTC
Range after Asian V-recovery · RSI 55 · price 158.233
158.10–158.28 range under lower highs.
Early Asia broke yesterday's NY low at 157.90 down to 157.58, then fully reclaimed it as US yields stayed supportive despite Japan's data beats. Price has held a 158.10–158.28 range since and sits mid-to-upper range in the first hour of London. The Asian high at 158.28 is a lower high under yesterday's 158.40 prior high.
Support: 158.10, 157.90, 157.58
Resistance: 158.28, 158.40
What it said to watch
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could break the range; Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) are the next test
M15 close above the 158.28 Asian high opens the 158.40 prior high and tests the lower-highs line
Loss of the 158.10 range low, also the asia rebound 23.6% fib, reopens the 157.90 NY low
A return below 157.90 would undo the false break toward the 157.58 asia low
07:31 UTC
Recovered Asia flush, now flat · RSI 54 · price 158.205
Higher low at 158.09, compressing under Asian high.
After the daily open, Asia flushed to a 157.58 low, then retraced the full drop as the yen faded firm Japan data and US yields stayed supportive. Into early London, price is compressing between a 158.09 higher low and the 158.28 Asian high, near the top of the 157.58–158.28 swing. RSI(14) is neutral near 54.
Support: 158.09, 157.90, 157.58
Resistance: 158.28, 158.40, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.28 Asian high opens the 158.40 prior high, then 158.50 psych
Failure to hold the 158.09 higher low puts the 157.90 NY low back in play
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Intraday recovery stalling below Asian high · RSI 54 · price 158.154
Asia swept down to an Asian low at 157.58, then fully recovered to a 158.28 Asian high as firm US yields kept the dollar supported despite Japanese data beats. London opened with a dip to 158.10, leaving price compressing between the 158.09 swing low and a lower high at 158.23. RSI(14) is neutral near 54, with price just under EMA20.
Support: 158.09, 158.01, 157.58
Resistance: 158.23, 158.28, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.09 swing low exposes the fib 38.2 of the Asian rally near 158.01 and the 158.00 handle
Break of the 158.23 lower high and the 158.28 Asian high reopens yesterday's prior high at 158.40, with the 158.50 200-DMA beyond
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could shift the read via US yields
Failure to hold 158.01 would put the Asian low at 157.58 back in focus
07:01 UTC
Recovery from the Tokyo low, now flat below the Asia high · RSI 55 · price 158.198
Higher lows off 157.58, held in a 158.09–158.28 box into London open.
The Tokyo-open drop to the 157.58 asia low broke yesterday's 157.85 low and reversed. The yen failed to hold gains despite the current-account beat, and price has since held in a 158.09 swing low to 158.28 asia high box into London open. RSI(14) near 55 is mid-range, and price is sitting just above the rising trendline from 157.74.
Support: 158.09, 158.00, 157.58
Resistance: 158.28, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.28 asia high opens yesterday's 158.40 prior high, with 158.50 beyond
Break of the 158.09 swing low and the rising trendline puts the 158.00 round number and the 38.2% fib at 158.01 in play
Loss of 158.00 exposes the 157.58 asia low and negates the false break
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Recovery from Asian low, now flattening · RSI 53 · price 158.205
V-shaped rebound from 157.58 into a tight 158.09–158.28 consolidation below the Asian high.
Asia flushed to the 157.58 Asian low early, then a recovery leg retraced the whole drop to 158.28. Firm US yields kept USD bid despite Japan's current account beat. Late Asia is now ranging 158.09–158.28 under the Asian high ahead of London open, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and price holding above the recovery leg's 23.6% retracement.
Support: 158.09, 157.90, 157.58
Resistance: 158.28, 158.40, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.28 Asian high reopens the 158.40 prior high, with the 158.50 200-dma beyond
Failure to hold the 158.09 swing low exposes the 157.90 prior low near the recovery leg's 50% retracement
A break of the 157.58 Asian low would erase the recovery leg
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:32 UTC
Rebound from Asian low, momentum flattening · RSI 52 · price 158.138
V-recovery off 157.58, now ranging 158.09–158.28 below prior high.
Early Asia sold off through the prior low near 157.90 to 157.58, then fully reversed on the yield-driven USD bid to trade back above 158.20. Rejection at the 158.28 Asian high has pulled price to 158.14, sitting just above the 158.09 pullback low into London open, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 158.09, 158.01, 157.90
Resistance: 158.28, 158.40, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.28 Asian high reopens the 158.40 prior high and the 158.50 half-figure
Loss of the 158.09 pullback low exposes the fib 38.2% at 158.01, then the 157.90 prior low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
V-reversal from asia low, now consolidating 158.11–158.28.
Early Asia session broke the 157.896 ny low and dropped to a 157.58 asia low, then fully reversed. Yen is fading the current account and Eco Watchers beats, and price has gone sideways between the 158.112 swing low and the 158.283 asia high into the London open, with RSI(14) neutral near 54. Supply at the 158.39–158.40 prior high capped three tests yesterday, and the 158.50 200-dma sits just above.
Support: 158.112, 157.896, 157.58
Resistance: 158.283, 158.397, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.283 asia high opens a retest of the 158.397 prior high, with the 158.50 200-dma behind it
Failure to hold the 158.112 swing low (23.6% fib) exposes the 157.896 ny low near the 50% fib
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A drop back below the 157.58 asia low negates the false-break reversal
Higher lows off the 157.58 Asia low, pullback testing the latest higher low.
The Tokyo open swept below yesterday's 157.90 prior low to 157.58. Price then recovered in a V-shape to a 158.28 session high, as yen data beats faded against elevated US yields. Late in the Asia session price is pulling back into the 158.17 higher low, with RSI(14) near 56 and the rally stalling below yesterday's 158.40 prior high.
Support: 158.166, 158.112, 157.90
Resistance: 158.283, 158.40, 158.50
What it said to watch
A close below the 158.11 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 38.2% fib near 158.01
A break of the 158.28 session high opens yesterday's 158.40 prior high, then the 158.50 weekly high
Loss of the 157.90 prior low would put the 157.58 Asia low back in play
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could shift US yields and this read
05:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low, momentum moderate · RSI 64 · price 158.26
Higher lows since 157.58; testing the Asian high at 158.28, still under prior high 158.40.
The Tokyo open swept below yesterday's NY low at 157.90 to 157.58, then reversed steadily. Late in the Asia session, price is pressing the Asian high at 158.28 with a higher low at 158.12, RSI(14) near 64, as firm US yields after the hawkish FOMC Minutes keep the yen soft. Yesterday's prior high at 158.40 caps the rally above.
Support: 158.12, 157.90, 157.58
Resistance: 158.28, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 prior high extends the rally beyond yesterday's range
Failure to hold the 158.12 higher low breaks the rising lows and opens 157.90
London open in ~75 min often tests the Asian high or the asian low edges
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Retracement into the 50% asian rally fib near 157.93 overlaps the NY low
05:32 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling under session high · RSI 61 · price 158.219
V-reversal off the 157.58 sweep, now a tight 158.11–158.25 box with small higher lows.
Asia briefly broke below yesterday's NY low near 157.90 to an asian low of 157.58 after the Japan data beats, then reversed fully as firm yields after the hawkish FOMC Minutes kept USD supported. Late in the Asia session, price is compressing between the 158.11 swing low and the 158.245 session high. RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR is about 9 pips.
Support: 158.112, 157.896, 157.58
Resistance: 158.245, 158.40
What it said to watch
A close above the 158.245 session high opens the 158.40 prior high from yesterday's London/NY session
Loss of the 158.11 swing low returns focus to the 157.90 ny low; failure there exposes the 157.58 asian low
London open could expand the tight Asian-late box
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
V-recovery from Asian low, higher lows below session high.
Early Asia dropped through Wednesday's NY lows to an asia low at 157.58 after Japan's data beats, then fully reversed as the firm-USD tone reasserted. Price is now compressing late in the Asia session just under the 158.245 session high, with a swing low at 158.11 holding; RSI(14) is cooling from the low-70s.
Support: 158.11, 158.00, 157.58
Resistance: 158.245, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.245 session high opens the 158.40 prior high from Wednesday's London session
Loss of the 158.11 swing low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 158.00 round number, near the 38.2% asia rally fib
Failure back below 158.00 puts the 157.58 asia low back in focus and weakens the false break read
London open and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Jobless Claims follow at 12:30 UTC
05:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asia low, momentum firm · RSI 66 · price 158.222
Higher-low chain from 157.58, pressing session high.
Asia session swept below yesterday's 157.90 NY low to 157.58 shortly after Tokyo open, then reversed through a higher-low chain to the 158.25 session high, retracing the full move off that low. With RSI(14) near 66 and US yields at multi-decade highs, price is pressing the session high, with the 158.40 prior high from yesterday's London and NY sessions the next cap and intervention caution flagged near the 158.50 round number.
Support: 158.11, 157.90, 157.58
Resistance: 158.25, 158.40, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.25 session high exposes the 158.40 prior high, with the 158.50 round number above
Failure to hold the 158.11 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and the rebound structure
Loss of the 157.90 NY low reopens the 157.58 Asia low
Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher low in place · RSI 61 · price 158.187
V-reversal off the Asia sweep low, then a higher high at 158.22 and a higher low at 158.11.
After the Japan current account print, early Asia swept below yesterday's 157.90 NY low to 157.58 (asia low), then reversed in a V to a 158.22 asia high. The 158.11 pullback held as a higher low, only about 17% of the rally. Late in the Asia session, price is pressing the high with RSI(14) at 61, and the 158.40 NY high and the 158.50 200-DMA cap above.
Support: 158.11, 157.90, 157.58
Resistance: 158.22, 158.40, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.22 asia high opens the 158.40 ny high, with the 158.50 200-dma beyond
Loss of the 158.11 higher low shifts focus to the 157.98 38.2% fib of the Asia rally and the 157.90 ny low
Break back below the 157.58 asia low negates the V-recovery read
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Intraday rebound, pausing below Asian high · RSI 63 · price 158.187
V-recovery from 157.58 sweep low; higher low at 158.11 under 158.22 cap.
The early-Asia drop on hawkish BoJ Sato comments and intervention caution broke below yesterday's 157.85 London low to the 157.58 asian low, then fully reversed, a false break. Price is now in a tight flag just under the 158.22 asian high, with a higher low at 158.11, as the Asia session winds down ahead of London.
Support: 158.11, 158.00, 157.58
Resistance: 158.22, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.22 asian high opens the 158.40 prior high, capped twice yesterday
Failure to hold the 158.11 higher low puts the 158.00 round number and the rebound trendline in play
A move back under the 38.2% rebound fib near 157.98 would weaken the recovery read
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Rebounding off Asia low, momentum flattening · RSI 63 · price 158.158
V-recovery from 157.58 false break, tight 158.11–158.22 consolidation.
Early Asia flushed below the 157.85–157.90 London/NY lows to an Asia low at 157.58, then reversed to an Asia high at 158.22 as USD stayed firm on multi-decade-high yields. Price has since compressed between the 158.11 swing low and 158.22, holding above ema20. Intervention caution after the round-trip from 158.51 keeps the topside heavy.
Support: 158.11, 157.90, 157.58
Resistance: 158.22, 158.40, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.22 asia high opens the 158.40 london high and 158.45 prior high
Loss of the 158.11 swing low exposes the 157.90 ny low, which sits on the 50% fib of the Asia rally
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
A return below the 157.58 asia low negates the false-break read
04:02 UTC
Intraday V-recovery, pausing below Asia high · RSI 58 · price 158.114
Asia low 157.58 undercut prior lows, higher low at 157.74, now pulling back.
Late in the Asia session, USDJPY dropped to an Asia low at 157.58 on hawkish BoJ Sato remarks, briefly breaking below the London and NY lows near 157.85–157.90. It then recovered in a V-shape to a 158.22 Asia high. Price is easing just above the 158.00 round number, near the 23.6% retrace of the Asia rally, with RSI(14) around 58 and yesterday's London high at 158.40 the next cap.
Support: 158.00, 157.90, 157.58
Resistance: 158.22, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.22 Asia high reopens yesterday's 158.40 London high
Close below the 158.00 round number and the rising support from the 157.58 Asia low brings the 157.90 NY low and 50% of the Asia rally back into view
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia sweep of prior lows reversed; higher lows since 157.58.
Asia session swept yesterday's prior lows near 157.90 to a 157.58 session low, then reversed back through the 158.00 round number to a 158.22 Asia high as DXY eased off its highs. Price is holding just under that high with RSI(14) near 63. Yesterday's 158.40 swing high and the 158.50 cap from BoJ-hike and intervention talk sit above.
Support: 158.00, 157.90, 157.58
Resistance: 158.22, 158.40, 158.50
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.00 round number puts the 157.90 prior lows and 61.8% fib back in play
M15 close above the 158.22 Asia high exposes the 158.40 swing high and the 158.50 cap
A break of the rising support line from the 157.58 session low negates the higher-low sequence
Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Intraday rebound, momentum flattening at session high · RSI 66 · price 158.21
V-shaped Asia recovery from 157.58; higher lows, pressing session high 158.22.
The early-Tokyo spike failed at 158.10. The pair then broke below yesterday's 157.90 prior low to the Asia low at 157.58, before reversing roughly 64 pips to the 158.22 session high. That makes the dip a false break of the prior low. Price has reclaimed the 158.00 round number with RSI(14) near 66, while yesterday's NY high at 158.40 and the 158.50 200-dma, flagged as a repeated cap with intervention caution, sit overhead.
Support: 158.00, 157.90, 157.58
Resistance: 158.22, 158.40, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.00 round number would put the Asia rebound fib 50% near 157.90 prior low in play
A break of the Asia rising lows trendline, anchored at 157.58 and 157.74, would negate the higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the 158.40 NY high exposes the 158.50 200-dma, where supply has capped price repeatedly
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
03:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off Asia low · RSI 58 · price 158.194
V-shaped reclaim from 157.58, pressing session high.
Tokyo open sold through yesterday's 157.85 prior low to a 157.58 Asian low, then reversed in a false break. Rising lows carried the 02:15–03:00 UTC rally back through the 158.00 round number to test the 158.22 session high, RSI(14) neutral-firm near 58.
Support: 158.00, 157.85, 157.58
Resistance: 158.22, 158.40, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.22 session high exposes the 158.40 ny high and the 158.50 cap, the area where the pair has repeatedly failed this week
Loss of the 158.00 round number returns price to the 157.90 fib 50% / 157.85 prior low zone
Break of the rising lows line and the 157.58 asian low negates the false break read
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:01 UTC
V-shaped recovery inside a 24h range · RSI 59 · price 158.16
Tokyo-open flush to 157.58 fully retraced; higher lows from the session low, price testing the 158.20 session high.
Asia session opened with a 52-pip flush through yesterday's NY low of 157.90 to a 157.58 session low. The yen bid on BoJ and intervention caution faded, and the drop was fully reversed into a 158.20 session high. Price is back above the 158.10 asia pivot, the pre-drop high, while yesterday's 158.40 prior high from London and NY is still capping the 24h range.
Support: 158.10, 157.89, 157.58
Resistance: 158.20, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.20 session high exposes the 158.40 prior high, where the pair stalled twice yesterday
Slip back below the 158.10 asia pivot puts the 50% fib of the rebound at 157.89 in focus
Loss of the rising trendline from the 157.58 session low revives the false-break read in reverse
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.40; Tokyo-open sweep to 157.58 reversed into prior Asia range.
The Tokyo-open sell-off took out the ny low at 157.90 and ran to a 157.58 session low on yen demand tied to BoJ hike bets and intervention caution. Price then V-reversed to 158.03, back at the 50% fib of the 158.40-157.58 leg and pressing the descending trendline just under the 158.10 asia high, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 157.90, 157.58
Resistance: 158.10, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.10 asia high breaks the lower-high trendline and exposes the 158.40 prior high
Failure back below 157.90 ny low reopens the 157.58 session low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.40; higher lows since the 157.58 low.
Asia session saw a 52-pip drop from the 158.10 asia high to a 157.58 session low, rejected within the bar. Higher lows near 157.74 have since lifted price back through the 157.90 prior low and the 61.8% of the Tokyo drop fib. Lower highs from the 158.40 london high still define the intraday downtrend, and the 158.00 psych level sits just overhead.
Support: 157.90, 157.74, 157.58
Resistance: 158.00, 158.10, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 psych level opens the 158.10 asia high and the lower-highs trendline near 158.04
Slip back below the 157.90 prior low and the 157.74 higher low re-exposes the 157.58 session low
Waller speech at 08:30 UTC could shift this read via US yields
Lower highs from 158.40; Asian range broken lower, now basing above 157.58.
Selling at the Tokyo open broke the 157.95–158.10 Asian range and yesterday's 157.85–157.90 lows, reaching a 157.58 session low. The rebound stalled at 157.90, the fib 61.8 of the drop, so lower highs from the 158.40 prior high remain intact, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 157.72, 157.58
Resistance: 157.90, 158.10, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.90 fib 61.8 opens a deeper retrace toward the 158.10 asian high
Failure to hold the 157.72 pivot low exposes a retest of the 157.58 session low
A break of the lower-highs trendline from 158.40 would undercut the downtrend read
Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with USD trading closely with yields
Lower highs from 158.40; prior-day lows broken, 157.90 retest from below.
A Tokyo-open slide from the 158.10 Asia high broke yesterday's 157.85–157.90 London and NY lows and ran to the 157.58 Asia low. The bounce has stalled twice under 157.90, the broken prior low that lines up with the 61.8% fib of the drop, with a bounce low at 157.72 below. The pair is drifting lower despite firm US yields.
Support: 157.72, 157.58
Resistance: 157.90, 158.10
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 157.90 (prior low / 61.8% fib) negates the break-and-retest read
Loss of the 157.72 bounce low exposes a retest of the 157.58 Asia low
Recovery through 158.10 Asia high breaks the lower-high sequence
Waller 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could reprice yields and shift this read
Lower highs from 158.10; Asia sweep of the prior low to 157.58, rebound capped at 157.90.
Selling from the 158.10 Asian high at the Tokyo open swept the prior low at 157.90 down to a 157.58 session low, despite a firm USD backdrop after the hawkish FOMC minutes and the 5.30% 10y auction. The rebound has stalled at the 157.90 prior low, which lines up with the 61.8% fib, and price is sitting just above the 157.72 pivot low.
Support: 157.72, 157.58
Resistance: 157.90, 158.10
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 157.90 prior low breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 158.10 Asian high back in view
Failure to hold the 157.72 pivot low reopens the 157.58 session low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since NY; prior-day low broken, retest from below.
The Tokyo open drop ran from the 158.10 asia high through the 157.85 prior low to a 157.58 session low. That extends the lower-highs sequence off the 158.40 ny high, with USD still firm on yields. The rebound stalled near 157.90, the 61.8% of the Tokyo drop, and price is back under the broken prior low with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 157.72, 157.58
Resistance: 157.85, 158.10, 158.40
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above 157.85–157.90 (prior low / 61.8% of the Tokyo drop) neutralises the break and puts the 158.10 asia high back in view
Failure to hold the 157.72 swing low reopens the 157.58 session low
Lower-highs trendline from the 158.40 ny high sits near 158.06; a break above it changes the intraday structure
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Initial Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY · RSI 37 · price 157.787
Tokyo-open break below prior-day lows, bounce capped at old support.
The Tokyo open sold USDJPY through the 157.85–157.90 London and NY lows to a 157.58 swing low. The yen firmed despite USD support from the FOMC minutes, and the move extends a lower-high chain from the 158.40 session high. The wick rebound stalled at the old ny low near 157.90, around 61.8% of the Tokyo drop fib, and price now sits in the 157.75–157.80 area with ATR near 10 pips.
Support: 157.58, 157.41
Resistance: 157.90, 158.10, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 157.90 ny low turns the break into a false break and reopens the 158.10 asian high
Failure to hold the 157.58 swing low exposes the 157.41 range low cited in the yen digest
Lower-high trendline from the 158.40 session high stays intact while price holds below 158.10
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Any MoF or BoJ headlines during Asia session could extend yen moves quickly
01:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY · RSI 38 · price 157.823
Prior-day low broken in Asia, rebound stalling at 50% fib.
Lower highs from the 158.40 NY high carried into the Asia session. The first hour of Asia broke the 157.90 prior low and printed a 157.58 session low, though the digest flags no Japan release behind the move. A sharp rejection from the low has lifted price back to the 50% level of the asia drop fib from the 158.10 drop high, just under the broken prior low.
Support: 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 157.90, 158.10, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.90 prior low reopens the 158.10 drop high and the lower highs line near 158.07
Failure to hold the 157.58 session low extends the break toward the 157.50 round number
Clearing the lower highs line and the 158.40 NY high would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read via yields
Lower highs from 158.40, Asian range broken to the downside.
Early in the Asia session, a rejected pop to the 158.10 Asian high gave way to a break of the Asian range and yesterday's 157.85 London prior low, printing a session low at 157.66 with RSI(14) near 25. The lower-high sequence from the 158.40 NY high is intact, and the drop runs against a firm USD backdrop as BoJ normalisation talk lends the yen support.
Support: 157.66, 157.50
Resistance: 157.85, 158.10
What it said to watch
Recovery above the 157.85 prior low, back into the Asian range, negates the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 157.66 session low exposes the 157.50 round number
M15 close above the 158.10 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.40; London low 157.85 broken early Asia.
After the 158.51 200-DMA tag faded, the pair printed lower highs from the 158.40 NY high. Early Asia, a spike to the 158.10 asian high was rejected and the drop broke the 157.85 london low to a new session low at 157.80, RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 157.80, 157.41
Resistance: 157.85, 158.10, 158.40
What it said to watch
A reclaim of the 157.85 london low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 157.80 session low exposes Monday's 157.41 low (monday low)
A close above the 158.10 asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline from the 158.40 ny high
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
Since the early-Asia tag of the 158.51 200-dma tag, the pair has printed lower highs at 158.40 and 158.10 along a falling lower highs line. The Asia high at 158.10 was rejected around the Japan current account release, dropping price to 157.87 to retest the 157.85 London low, with RSI(14) near 34 and price under both EMAs despite the firm post-FOMC Minutes USD backdrop.
Support: 157.85, 157.41
Resistance: 158.10, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.85 london low confirms a lower low and exposes the 157.41 monday low
Reclaim of the 158.10 asia high breaks the lower highs line and neutralises the intraday downtrend read
158.40 lower high caps any recovery; only a move through it reopens the 158.51 200-dma tag
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
Lower highs from 158.51; early-Asia range 157.95–158.10.
Highs have stepped lower since Wednesday's 158.51 Asian top. The London open flush to 157.85 was followed by a 157.90 NY low that held as a higher low after the hawkish FOMC Minutes. Early Asia is compressing between the 157.95 Asian low and the 158.10 session high, which sits at the 38.2% of the NY decline; RSI(14) is flat near 50.
Support: 157.95, 157.90, 157.85
Resistance: 158.10, 158.21, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.10 session high opens the fib 61.8 at 158.21 and the 158.40 NY high
Break of the 157.95 Asian low exposes the 157.90 NY low and 157.85 London low; failure there extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read