Multi-month uptrend intact: USDJPY has climbed off the mid-February 152.27 low and reclaimed 160.00, holding above a rising EMA(50) throughout the advance. The pair is now grinding in a tight consolidation just under the April 160.75 high, with price pinned near multi-decade levels as a BoJ hike to 1.0% is largely priced and yen weakness stays the consensus. The wedge-like compression of the last two weeks shows the daily range narrowing even as price drifts higher.
Support: 160.00, 159.60
Resistance: 160.75, 161.15
What it said to watch
BoJ decision Jun 16 — hawkish surprise or intervention could snap price back below 160.00 toward 159.60
US CPI Wed could extend the move if hot or trim the dollar bid if cool
Daily close above 160.75 opens the path to the 161.15 wedge top
Higher highs since April low, pressing multi-decade highs.
Multi-month uptrend, price holding above EMA(50) on D1 and clearing 160.00 to print fresh highs at 160.44. The late-March flash drop from 160.72 to the mid-155s fully recovered through April-May in a slow grind back up, and the last two weeks have ground higher into the 160-handle on a firm-USD/soft-JPY mix following Friday's blowout NFP and steady Japanese data being overwhelmed by energy and geopolitics. Demand stepping in on dips near 159.60 keeps the ascending base intact.
Support: 160.00, 159.60
Resistance: 160.72, 161.15
What it said to watch
BoJ rate decision Jun 16 (hike to 1.0% near-priced) makes the reaction asymmetric — a hawkish surprise could break 159.60 support
Intervention risk near multi-decade highs caps extension toward 160.72 prior high and 161.15 wedge top
US CPI Wed could shift the USD leg of this read
Daily close back below 160.00 psych puts the ascending support in question