Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:02 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into prior high · RSI 68 · price 160.585
Higher highs, retesting April peak.
Months-long uptrend off the February 152.27 low, price grinding to 6-week highs at 160.59 and retesting the April 30 pre-intervention high at 160.72. Trades above EMA20 and EMA50 with both rising; the only material rejection came on the late-April spike that swept 160.72 and reversed to 155.5 in a single session, leaving a potential double top in play. JPY stays soft despite firmer Q1 GDP and earnings as the 25bp BoJ hike is fully priced, with the 159.40 consolidation acting as the latest base before this push.
Support: 159.40
Resistance: 160.72
What it said to watch
- Daily close above 160.72 retests the prior high and raises MoF intervention odds
- BoJ rate decision Tue 16 Jun is the dominant catalyst for this read
- Failure to hold 159.40 prior range breaks the latest rising support
21:02 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into highs · RSI 66 · price 160.585
Chain of higher highs/higher lows, capped near 160.72.
USDJPY has trended higher since the mid-February low near 152.27, holding above a rising EMA(50) and stacking higher lows over the last several weeks. Price is parked at six-week highs around 160.50, just under the April 30 pre-intervention high at 160.72, with JPY structurally soft as a 25bp BoJ hike to 1.00% is already fully priced. The last week has been a tight grind between 160.00 and 160.59 rather than a fresh impulsive leg.
Support: 160.00, 159.00
Resistance: 160.72, 161.00
What it said to watch
- Daily close above 160.72 stretches into the 161.00 zone and raises MoF intervention odds
- BoJ rate decision Jun 16 plus Ueda-absent presser is the dominant catalyst for this read
- Failure to hold 160.00 then 159.00 would break the recent higher-low sequence