Higher highs since Q2-2025, coiling under cycle top.
Macro uptrend intact: USDJPY has climbed relentlessly off the April-2025 low near 139.89 to press the 40-year high at 162.84, with JPY pinned near multi-decade lows on the rate-differential regime. Price holds well above a rising W1 EMA(50), confirming the trend, but the last several weeks are coiling in a tight 161-163 band as the 163.00 ceiling caps. The 162.84 cycle top marks the level that invites actual MoF/BoJ intervention.
Support: 161.00, 160.00
Resistance: 162.84, 163.00
What it said to watch
Weekly close above 163.00 clears the cycle top but sharply raises intervention risk
National CPI (Jul 23) and BoJ+Fed (Jul 28-29) could break the 161-163 box
Loss of the 161.00 pivot and 160.00 psych level would mark the first lower low of the trend
19:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended near cycle top · RSI 64 · price 161.885
Higher highs, capped below 162.84.
USDJPY has trended higher without interruption since the April 2025 low near 141.60, and now sits at 161.89 pressing 40-year highs. Price is boxed in the 161.00-162.84 upper range with EMA(50) rising well below — a firmly intact macro uptrend anchored to the wide US-Japan rate gap. The 162.84 cycle top and 163.00 psychological ceiling cap the advance, the zone flagged as inviting actual MoF/BoJ intervention.
Support: 161.00
Resistance: 162.84, 163.00
What it said to watch
Decisive W1 close above 163.00 extends the cycle top and raises intervention risk
Loss of 161.00 pivot shifts the near-term structure lower
National CPI (Jul 23) and BoJ/Fed (Jul 28-29) are the eventual break catalysts for this range