Multi-quarter uptrend in force since the April 2025 low near 140, driven by the US-Japan rate differential; price holds well above a rising W1 EMA(50) with the recovery channel intact. Price is now pressing the 2024 peak at 161.95, the multi-decade line that capped prior advances, after clearing the 152.27 swing low and the 160.00 round level on the way up. W1 RSI near 58 is not stretched, so momentum is not extreme even with the level directly overhead.
Support: 160.00, 152.27
Resistance: 161.95
What it said to watch
W1 close above 161.95 opens fresh multi-decade highs
Intervention headlines near 162.00 could trigger a sharp reversal toward 157-155
Tokyo CPI Jun 25 is a high-impact read for the rate-differential theme
Macro uptrend intact — USD/JPY has retraced the entire April 2025 selloff to 141.61 and now sits within a whisker of the 161.95 2024 peak. Price holds well above a rising W1 EMA(50), with US-Japan rate-differential dominance keeping the yen pinned near multi-decade lows after the hawkish Fed dots overpowered the BoJ's hike to 1%. RSI is elevated but short of weekly extremes as price probes the 161.95 line.
Support: 159.65, 157.40
Resistance: 161.95, 162.00
What it said to watch
Weekly close above 161.95 opens fresh multi-decade highs
Intervention risk near 162.00 is the live two-way wildcard — a sharp reversal could drag price back toward 159.65
Loss of the 157.40 ascending trendline would break the recovery structure