USDJPY ran from the 160.10 base to a 161.81 week high through Thursday's NY session as the dollar extended on the record-hawkish Fed dot-plot. Price has since stalled into a tight band, with 161.46 capping the last push and rising lows from 161.01 holding under it. RSI(14) has cooled back toward the midline as the move consolidates just below the 2024 peak at 161.95.
Support: 161.01
Resistance: 161.46, 161.81, 161.95
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.46 opens the path to the 161.81 week high and the 161.95 2024 peak
Failure to hold 161.01 breaks the ascending swing lows
Intervention risk asymmetric near the 161.95 2024 peak in thin holiday liquidity
USDJPY ran from the 160.10 area to a 161.81 week high through Thursday's NY session, riding the record hawkish FOMC and a widening US-Japan rate differential. Since that spike the pair has gone sideways between 161.10 and 161.45, holding above EMA20 with RSI(14) settling near 53 as momentum cools into thin Juneteenth-holiday trade. The 161.81 week high and the 161.95 2024 peak remain the structural ceiling.
Support: 161.10, 160.92
Resistance: 161.45, 161.81, 161.95
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.81 opens the path to the 161.95 2024 peak
Failure to hold 161.10 swing low exposes 160.92
MoF intervention risk asymmetric near the 2024 peak in thin liquidity