Multi-month uptrend intact, price holding above a rising EMA(50) since the early-April recovery off the 155.03 spike low. The last three-plus weeks have consolidated in the 161.30–162.84 band as rate-divergence carry keeps JPY heavy but the 40-year high at 162.84/163.00 caps upside, with MoF intervention rhetoric reinforcing the ceiling. National CPI Thursday is the near-term swing catalyst.
Support: 161.30, 155.03
Resistance: 162.84, 163.00
What it said to watch
Daily close above 162.84 opens the 163.00 intervention zone
Failure to hold 161.30 range low breaks the consolidation lower
National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift the divergence read
USDJPY has ground higher for months on the rate-divergence carry theme, holding above EMA50 on D1 and now pressing 40-year highs. Price is consolidating in the low-162s just below the 162.84 cycle top, with the last two weeks pinned in a tight range as the pair stalls beneath the intervention zone. JPY stays heavy on wide differentials and an energy-swollen import bill.
Support: 161.28
Resistance: 162.84, 163.00
What it said to watch
Approach to 162.84/163.00 raises verbal or actual MoF intervention risk
Japan National CPI (Thu 23:30 UTC) above 1.6% could firm BoJ hike bets and pressure back toward 161.30
Daily close below 161.28 breaks the rising sequence of higher lows