22:46 UTC
Range-bound inside a lower-highs sequence since July · RSI 49 · price 157.522
Lower highs from 163.98 meet higher lows from the 152.89 Sept low; range compressing.
The pair has printed lower highs since the late-July top at 163.98, but the 152.89 Sept low has held and price has spent five weeks in a 156.08–159.00 range between the range floor and range top. The hawkish Fed hold lifted it to 158.35 midweek before supply capped it below the gently declining ema50 near 158.09. The hawkish BoJ hold then left it heavy into Friday's close at 157.52, which sits on the 61.8% retrace of the Sept swing. RSI near 49 and ATR around 84 pips fit a compressing tape squeezed between the lower highs and higher lows trendlines.
Support: 156.08, 155.23, 152.89
Resistance: 158.09, 159.00, 160.39
What it said to watch
- A daily close above the 159.00 range top and the lower highs line reopens the 160.39 sept high
- Failure to hold the 156.08 range floor and the higher lows line exposes the 155.23 august low, then the 152.89 sept low
- BoJ Ueda speech Nov 6 and Labor Cash Earnings Nov 5 could shift December hike pricing and test the range
- US ISM Manufacturing Mon, midterms Tue and ADP Wed are the near-term USD risk to this range read