USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Friday, 31 July 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum slowing at range lows · RSI 43 · price 159.171
Lower highs since the intervention rebound peaked.
Suspected MoF intervention Thursday yanked USD/JPY roughly five figures from 163 to the 157.96 low, and the rebound above 160 has since faded into a chain of lower highs capped near the 160.70 rebound high. Price is back below EMA(20) with RSI(14) mid-40s after slicing the 159.50 pivot; sellers pressed the 158.16 swing low before this stabilisation near 159.17. The move ties to fading post-BoJ yen gains and returning USD demand off the DXY six-week low.
Support: 158.158, 157.956
Resistance: 159.50, 160.70
What it said to watch
H1 close below 158.00 opens the Thursday intervention low at 157.96
Reclaim of 159.50 needed to break the sequence of lower highs
ISM Manufacturing PMI Mon 14:00 UTC could shift USD-side flows; MoF intervention risk flagged above 162
Thursday's suspected MoF intervention yanked USDJPY roughly five figures from 163 down to 157.96, and the pair has since chopped inside a 158-160 band. A rebound stalled at 160.88 during NY hours before rolling back below 160.00, with price now holding under EMA20 at ~159.7 and RSI(14) mid-40s. Two probes of the 158.16 area have held so far, keeping the post-crash range intact.
Support: 158.158, 157.956
Resistance: 160.00, 160.879, 159.70
What it said to watch
H1 close below 158.16 re-opens the 157.96 week low
Reclaim of 160.00 would ease the downside pressure toward 160.88
Labor Cash Earnings Aug 4 (23:30 UTC) could shift the JPY read
19:02 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after intervention drop · RSI 39 · price 158.895
Post-spike range, testing lower bound.
Suspected MoF intervention drove a violent slide from 163 to the 157.96 spike low, after which price snapped back above 160 on the BoJ hold. That bounce has faded through the NY session, with rejection off the 160.00 pivot leaving lower highs and price back pressing the 158.16 lower bound. RSI(14) near 38 and price under both EMA20 and EMA50 reflect the corrective grind, but the 158.54 intervention floor has so far absorbed the pullbacks.
Support: 158.16, 157.96
Resistance: 160.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 160.00 signals the intervention bid fading
Failure to hold 158.16 re-opens the 157.96 spike low
Labor Cash Earnings Tue 23:30 UTC and ISM Mon could reset this read
Suspected MoF intervention collapsed USD/JPY roughly five figures Thursday from 163.7 to a 157.96 week low, and the corrective bounce to 160.88 has since faded. Price is grinding back lower under EMA20 with RSI(14) mired in the low 40s, printing successive lower highs off the recovery peak. The 160.00 pivot capped the last push before rollover.
Support: 158.54, 157.96
Resistance: 160.00, 160.88
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close back above 160.00 pivot signals the intervention move is fading
Break below 158.54 interv low re-opens the 157.96 week low
Labor Cash Earnings Tue 23:30 UTC could materially shift the JPY read
18:02 UTC
Downtrend, pressing range floor · RSI 35 · price 158.583
Lower highs since Thursday's drop.
Coordinated intervention Thursday drove USDJPY from 163 to sub-158, and the pair has since consolidated below the 160.00 psych level with the BoJ's 1% hold offering no fresh yen support. Price is pressing the range floor into Friday's late session, printing a fresh session low at 158.49 while holding below both EMAs. RSI(14) sits in the mid-30s with no bounce yet off the 157.96 thu low.
Support: 158.49, 157.96
Resistance: 160.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below 157.96 confirms a break of the Thursday intervention low
Reclaim of 160.00 needed to neutralise the lower-high sequence
ISM Manufacturing Mon 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
The week was defined by the suspected BoJ/MoF intervention that dropped USDJPY from 163.90 to 157.96 on Thursday; price recovered to 160.88 but has since rolled over through the NY session, printing lower highs back toward the intervention low. Price trades below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) pinned in the mid-30s after the latest leg lower. The 160.00 psych level capped the bounce and 158.00 is back in focus.
Support: 157.96, 158.00
Resistance: 160.00, 160.88
What it said to watch
H1 close below 158.00 exposes the 157.96 week low and sub-158 area
Reclaim of 160.00 needed to neutralise the lower-high sequence
162-163 remains the flagged intervention-risk zone should any rebound extend
ISM Manufacturing Mon Aug 3 14:00 UTC could materially shift the USD leg
Thursday's suspected BoJ intervention yanked USDJPY roughly five figures from 163 to sub-158; the pair recovered to 160.88 into Friday but has since rolled over, printing lower highs and sliding back toward 159.30. Price trades below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI cycling in the low 40s, and resistance at 160.54 capped the latest push. The bounce off 157.96 is now retracing about half its range.
Support: 158.90, 157.96
Resistance: 160.54, 160.88
What it said to watch
H1 close below 158.90 exposes the 157.96 week low
Reclaim of 160.88 negates the lower-high sequence
ISM Manufacturing PMI Mon Aug 3 could reset the dollar tone
Renewed MoF intervention headlines near 162 remain a two-way risk
USDJPY collapsed roughly five figures Thursday from 162.95 toward 157.96 on suspected coordinated MoF intervention, dragging the pair well below EMA20 and EMA50. Price has since based between 158.90 and the 160.88 bounce high, but the recovery stalled and rolled over into the NY session with lower highs printing. RSI(14) sits in the low 40s, reflecting the heavy tone without an oversold reset.
Support: 158.90, 157.96
Resistance: 160.88
What it said to watch
H1 close below 158.90 swing low re-exposes the 157.96 week low
Reclaim of 160.88 bounce high would neutralise the lower-high structure
Renewed MoF intervention risk flagged near 162 could sharply reset this read
ISM Manufacturing (Mon) is the next major USD catalyst into a data-sensitive dollar
USD/JPY was pinned in a 163.3–163.9 range from Monday's open until a suspected BoJ intervention Thursday hammered price ~480 pips, sweeping to 157.96 before a snap-back to 160.88. Since that bounce peak the pair has carved lower highs into week-end, sliding back through 160.00 to test the 158.90 area. RSI(14) sits mid-40s with price trading well below both EMA(20) and EMA(50).
Support: 158.90, 158.54, 157.96
Resistance: 160.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 158.90 confirms a fresh lower low toward the 158.54 intervention low
H1 close back above 160.00 challenges the lower-highs sequence off 160.88
Renewed MoF intervention risk flagged near 162.00 caps upside
ISM Manufacturing PMI Mon 14:00 UTC could reset the read via USD
USDJPY collapsed roughly five figures from 163 into a 157.96 low on Thursday's suspected coordinated MoF intervention, capping the week's yen weakness. The subsequent bounce stalled at the 160.88 bounce high and price has since rolled over, slipping back under the EMA(20) near 160.20 with RSI(14) fading toward 40 as the session low at 158.85 is being retested.
Support: 158.85, 157.96
Resistance: 160.20, 160.88, 162.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below 158.85 session low exposes the 157.96 intervention low
Recovery back toward the 162.00 intervention zone raises fresh MoF headline risk
ISM Manufacturing PMI Mon 14:00 UTC could reset the USD leg of this read
Suspected BoJ intervention Thursday drove a ~480-pip collapse from 162.95 to a 157.96 spike low, resetting the whole week's structure. The bounce stalled at the 160.88 recovery high and price has since rolled back under EMA(20), settling near 159.14 with RSI(14) in the low-40s. Trade is now boxed in a 158.90–160.88 range with sellers capping each rally attempt.
Support: 158.903, 157.956
Resistance: 160.879
What it said to watch
H1 close below 158.90 recent low reopens the 157.96 week low
Reclaim of 160.88 recovery high needed to challenge the ~162 intervention threshold
ISM Manufacturing (Mon) and Labor Cash Earnings (Aug 4) could reset this range
Fresh MoF intervention headlines would drive spiky, outsized moves
15:02 UTC
Downtrend after intervention, consolidating · RSI 42 · price 159.143
Sharp breakdown, ranging 158–161.
USDJPY collapsed roughly 480 pips Thursday on suspected MoF/BoJ intervention, printing 157.96 before a bounce that stalled at the 160.88 bounce high. Price has since rolled back to 159.14, holding above the 158.54 range low with RSI(14) sub-45 and trading under both EMA20 and EMA50. Follow-through has been two-way and headline-sensitive rather than trend-clean.
Support: 158.54, 157.96
Resistance: 160.88
What it said to watch
H1 close below 158.54 range low exposes the 157.96 intervention low
Recovery above the 160.88 bounce high needed to challenge the ~162 intervention cap
Fresh MoF/BoJ intervention headlines could trigger violent yen strength and reshape this read
The week's dominant move was Thursday's suspected BoJ intervention that dropped USDJPY roughly 480 pips off the 163.90 area into a 157.96 low, before a Friday rebound stalled at the 160.88 week high. Price has since rolled back below EMA20 near 160.10 and is pressing the lower end of the post-crash range into the 159.40s, with RSI(14) fading back toward the mid-40s. The 158.54 swing low and 157.96 intervention low mark the shelf under the current pullback.
Support: 158.541, 157.956
Resistance: 160.10, 160.879
What it said to watch
H1 close below 158.54 swing low confirms a lower-low and re-opens the 157.96 interv low
Reclaim of 160.88 week high needed to reassert the rebound
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift the USD read into the next bars
Renewed MoF/BoJ intervention risk if price grinds back toward 163
14:02 UTC
Downtrend after intervention, consolidating · RSI 44 · price 159.423
Post-crash range below 160.9, lower highs.
USDJPY was pinned in a tight 163.5-163.9 range from Monday's open until Thursday, when a suspected MoF intervention drove a violent ~480-pip collapse from the 163 area to a 157.96 flash low. Since then price has consolidated below 160.9, printing a series of lower highs and rejecting near the 50% retrace of the crash around 160.85. RSI(14) sits mid-range and price trades below both the EMA20 and EMA50 dragged down from the pre-crash shelf.
Support: 158.54, 157.96
Resistance: 160.88
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 160.88 negates the lower-high structure and the crash-retrace rejection
Failure to hold 158.54 re-opens the 157.96 flash low
Renewed MoF/coordinated intervention risk on any grind back toward the 163 area
UoM sentiment & inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift the USD leg
13:02 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off lows · RSI 54 · price 160.395
Spike low near 158, grinding higher-lows.
Suspected BoJ/MoF intervention slammed USDJPY from ~163.95 to 157.96 late Thursday before Friday's BoJ hold sparked a recovery back toward 160.40. Price has carved higher-lows off the 158 shelf and now sits above EMA(20) but well below EMA(50), with RSI(14) climbing back to the mid-50s from oversold. The 160.88 recovery high has capped the last push; the 158.0–158.5 zone marks the intervention shelf.
Support: 158.54, 157.96
Resistance: 160.88, 161.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above 160.88 opens the 161.00 psych and the 38.2%/50% fib band
Failure to hold the 158.54 recovery low reopens the 157.96 spike low
Renewed intervention/jawboning risk grows as price grinds back toward 163
US UoM sentiment + inflation expectations (~14:00 UTC) could shift the USD leg
13:02 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off lows · RSI 52 · price 160.395
Sharp break lower, consolidating above 160.
Suspected MoF intervention slammed USDJPY ~480 pips Thursday from the 163.00 area to 157.96, the dominant move of the week. Since then price has clawed back above 160 and holds over EMA(20) near 160.05, with RSI(14) recovering to the mid-50s; the session high at 160.88 has capped the bounce so far. The 42% retrace of the intervention drop is being tested from below while price consolidates.
Support: 159.85, 158.54, 157.96
Resistance: 160.88, 161.48, 163.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above 160.88 opens the 61.8 fib at 161.48
Loss of 159.85 session low exposes the 158.54 intervention shelf
Renewed MoF intervention risk if price grinds back toward 163.00
12:02 UTC
Volatile two-way range post-intervention · RSI 53 · price 160.218
Wide 158.50–160.90 range after sharp break lower.
Thursday's suspected MoF intervention collapsed USD/JPY roughly 500 pips from the 163 pre-intervention high to a 157.96 spike low, and price has since carved a volatile 158.50–160.90 range. Buyers based twice near 158.50 to form a double bottom, and the pair now hovers just above EMA(20) but is capped below EMA(50), with the 160.88 recovery high still unbroken. RSI(14) is cycling mid-range as the intervention-driven swing settles into two-way trade around the 160.50 pivot.
Support: 158.54, 157.96
Resistance: 160.50, 160.88
What it said to watch
H1 close above 160.88 recovery high reopens the path toward the 163 pre-intervention area
Loss of the 158.54 double btm exposes the 157.96 intervention low
Holding above the 160.50 pivot keeps the recovery intact; renewed intervention headline risk near recent highs
V-recovery off intervention low, consolidating under 160.80.
USD/JPY crashed roughly 480 pips into Thursday's suspected-intervention flush at 158.00 before snapping back above 160.00 as the BoJ's on-hold decision underwhelmed yen bulls. Price is now consolidating just below the 160.50-160.80 recovery zone with RSI(14) climbing back toward the midline after the oversold spike. The 160.00 psych level is acting as a near-term pivot following the bounce off the 158.54 thu low.
Support: 160.00, 158.54
Resistance: 160.88, 160.50
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 158.54 reopens the intervention flush toward the 158.00 area
Reclaim of the 160.88 recovery high needed to extend the bounce
Fresh intervention or verbal-confirmation headlines could trigger sharp two-way spikes
USDJPY collapsed roughly 480 pips from the 163.9 area into Thursday's 157.96 flush on suspected coordinated MoF/Korea intervention, then recovered above 160 after Friday's BoJ hold at 1% underdelivered. Price is now consolidating between the 158.54 shelf and the 160.50–160.80 recovery zone, sitting well below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) rebounding off oversold toward the mid-40s. Recovery highs have been stepping lower into the NY-to-Asia transition.
Support: 158.54, 157.96
Resistance: 160.80
What it said to watch
H1 close above 160.80 negates the lower-high sequence off the bounce
Failure to hold 158.54 reopens the 157.96 flush low
Renewed intervention or US-Iran headlines could trigger sharp two-way spikes
10:01 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after sharp drop · RSI 44 · price 159.974
Range break lower, now chopping 158.5–160.9.
USD/JPY collapsed roughly 480 pips out of the 163.5 range on suspected Japanese intervention Thursday, tagging 157.96 before recovering above 160.5. Since then price has consolidated between 158.5 and 160.9, easing back to 159.97 with RSI(14) recovered from oversold but still capped below the 50 mid-line. Price trades well below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), keeping the near-term structure heavy after the break.
Support: 158.54, 158.00, 157.96
Resistance: 160.50, 160.88
What it said to watch
H1 close below 158.00 reopens the 157.96 flash low
Reclaim above 160.90 would negate the lower-high sequence
USDJPY held a tight 163.3–163.9 range from Monday's open until Thursday, when suspected BoJ/MoF intervention collapsed the pair from the 163s to a 157.96 intervention low. Price recovered into the 160.80 pivot as the rate-gap carry reasserted, but the latest NY-session bars rejected there and sold back sub-159, closing at 158.72 below both EMA20 and EMA50. The 159.84 prior high now caps, and the session low at 158.54 is the immediate floor.
Support: 158.54, 157.96
Resistance: 159.84, 160.80
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 160.50 pivot reasserts the carry bid
Break of 158.54 session low reopens the 157.96 intervention low
US ECI / Michigan (12:30–14:00 GMT) plus fresh MoF headlines could shift this read
09:02 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower · RSI 41 · price 158.724
Lower highs after intervention flush.
USDJPY collapsed roughly 480 pips Thursday into the NY session on suspected BoJ/MoF intervention, tagging 157.96 before a rebound stalled at 160.88 — a clear lower high. Friday's Asia-into-London tape has rolled over again, breaking back below 159.00 with price now printing 158.72 under both EMAs. The rebound off the intervention low failed to reclaim the 160.50 pivot, and RSI(14) has cycled back toward the low-40s.
Support: 157.956
Resistance: 160.50, 160.879
What it said to watch
Loss of 157.96 swing low would extend the intervention flush
Reclaim of 160.50 pivot would negate the fresh lower-high rollover
US ECI and Michigan data 12:30-14:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Fresh MoF/BoJ intervention headlines remain a two-way risk
08:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing after sharp drop · RSI 46 · price 160.302
Intervention flush, recovering off 157.96 low.
USD/JPY collapsed roughly 480 pips below 160 on suspected BoJ intervention and a hot Tokyo CPI print, the sharpest single-session drop since 2022, spiking to a 157.96 low before recovering. Price has since based above 159.50 and clawed back toward the 160.88 week recovery high, retracing about 40% of the crash. Both EMA(20) and EMA(50) sit overhead as the market consolidates the flush, with RSI(14) rebuilding off its post-drop lows.
Support: 160.00, 159.50, 157.96
Resistance: 160.88, 161.53
What it said to watch
H1 close above 160.88 week high extends the recovery leg toward the 161.53 fib
Failure to hold 160.00 psych reopens the 159.50 base
US ECI/Chicago PMI at 12:30-13:45 UTC could shift the USD side of this read
Vertical break lower, now consolidating above 160.
USDJPY collapsed roughly 480 pips from the 163.70s to 157.96 on suspected BoJ intervention, coinciding with the soft US Q2 GDP and cooler core PCE that broadly weighed on the dollar. Price has since clawed back above 160.00, stalling at 160.88 which aligns with the 50% retracement of the intervention drop. Recovery lows have stepped higher off 157.96, but price sits well below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI still recovering from oversold.
Support: 160.00, 159.34, 157.96
Resistance: 160.88, 160.85
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 160.88 (50% fib) opens path toward the 161 round handle
Close back below 160.00 psych reopens the 159.34 / 157.96 intervention zone
Ueda press conference / any MoF intervention follow-through could reshape this read
US ECI, Chicago PMI and UoM sentiment today could drive the dollar leg
A violent, near-480 pip plunge from the 163.70 area through 160 to a 157.956 week low dominated the window — suspected Tokyo intervention amplified by a soft US Q2 GDP (1.5%) and cooler core PCE print. Price has since based and recovered to 160.88, exactly the 50% retracement of the down-leg, where the bounce stalled. USDJPY now hovers at 160.34, back above the 160.00 handle with RSI(14) cycling around the midline.
Support: 160.00, 159.50, 157.956
Resistance: 160.88
What it said to watch
H1 close below 159.50 reopens the 157.956 week low
Reclaim of 160.88 (50% fib) needed to extend the recovery
US ECI 12:30 GMT and Chicago PMI 13:45 GMT could shift the USD side
Any intervention follow-through or Ueda tone risks a fresh move around 160
06:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing after shock · RSI 49 · price 160.593
Sharp break lower, consolidating above 159.50.
USD/JPY collapsed nearly 480 pips through 160 during the NY session on suspected Japanese intervention, plunging from ~162.95 to a 157.96 spike low before rebounding. Price has since based and clawed back toward 160.60–160.88, holding above the 159.50 area, with RSI recovering off oversold as price sits back under EMA20 and EMA50. The 160.879 session high has capped the recovery so far.
Support: 159.50, 157.96
Resistance: 160.879, 161.00, 162.90
What it said to watch
BoJ Ueda presser (06:30 GMT) is the immediate catalyst and could override this read
Reclaim of 161.00 would extend the recovery toward the 162.90 pre-drop zone
Failure to hold 159.50 reopens the 157.96 spike low
USD/JPY was flushed ~480 pips from the 163.90 weekly high to 157.96 on suspected Tokyo intervention layered over the soft US Q2 GDP miss, printing the week low before demand stepped in. Price has since ground back above the 160.00 psych pivot, tagging a session high at 160.88 with RSI(14) recovering toward 57, though it remains capped well below the 162.83 pre-intervention zone. The bounce is holding a series of higher lows off 157.96 but sits under a still-descending EMA50.
Support: 160.00, 157.96
Resistance: 160.88, 162.83
What it said to watch
BoJ (Ueda) press conference ~06:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 160.00 reopens the 157.96 week low
H1 close back above 162.83 pre-intervention zone would negate the downside break
USD/JPY was crushed ~480 pips through 160.00 to 157.96 on suspected Tokyo intervention, amplified by the soft US Q2 GDP miss. Price has since carved a base and clawed back above the 160.00 pivot, with RSI(14) recovering off oversold as the recovery lows keep stepping higher. 160.88 has capped the bounce so far while EMA(50) sits well above near the pre-intervention 162-163 zone.
Support: 160.00, 157.96
Resistance: 160.88
What it said to watch
BoJ Ueda press conference ~06:30 UTC (in ~2h) is the dominant near-term driver
A close back below 160.00 reopens the 157.96 intervention low
Reclaim of 160.88 exposes the pre-interv 162-163 zone
USDJPY was slammed roughly 480 pips off 163.70 into a 157.96 spike low on suspected BoJ intervention, compounded by broad Dollar weakness after the soft Q2 GDP and cooler core PCE prints into month-end. Since the low, price has clawed back a rising sequence of higher-lows to reclaim the 160.00 pivot and edge back above EMA(20), with RSI(14) lifting off oversold toward the mid-40s. The 160.85–161.50 band, aligned with the plunge fib and EMA(50), is capping the recovery so far.
Support: 160.00, 159.50, 157.96
Resistance: 160.88, 161.50
What it said to watch
BoJ press conference 06:30 UTC (~2.5h) is the dominant near-term driver — a hawkish October signal vs boilerplate reshapes this read
Reclaim vs rejection of 160.00 defines the intervention's staying power
H1 close back below 159.50 reopens the 157.96 spike low
US ECI 12:30 UTC could spark a Dollar squeeze back above 160.88
Vertical break below 160, recovery within new lower range.
Suspected Tokyo intervention collapsed USDJPY roughly 480 pips through 160.00 during US hours, spiking to a 157.96 low before a stair-step recovery. Price has since reclaimed the 160.00 psych level and tagged a 160.74 session high, with RSI(14) lifting off oversold as higher lows build off the spike. The pair trades well below EMA20/EMA50, both dislodged higher by the crash; the 162.83 gap and pre-spike 163.60 mark the shelf the market fell from.
Support: 160.00, 157.96
Resistance: 160.74, 162.83, 163.60
What it said to watch
BoJ press conference 06:30 UTC — October-hike language vs boilerplate is the swing risk
Sustained trade below 160.00 keeps the bearish tone; failure back under invalidates the reclaim
H1 close back above 162.83 gap needed to challenge the pre-spike 163.60 shelf
Vertical break below 160, recovering off 157.95 low.
USD/JPY plunged roughly 480 pips from the 163.5 shelf on suspected Tokyo intervention, tagging 157.95 before buyers stabilised and dragged price back to reclaim the 160.00 pivot. The recovery has carved a series of higher lows into the 160.74 session high, though price sits well below the EMA(20) and EMA(50) after the collapse. Softer US GDP and cooling core PCE amplified the broad USD weakness behind the move.
Support: 160.00
Resistance: 160.74, 162.95
What it said to watch
BoJ decision at 03:00 UTC (~1h) will materially reset this read
Hold above 160.00 keeps the recovery structure intact; loss reopens 157.95
H1 close back above 162.95 breakdown point would repair the intervention drop
Multi-decade high reversed, recovering toward 160.
USDJPY collapsed over 400 pips through the 160.00 pivot to 157.96 on suspected MoF intervention, compounded by USD softness after this week's GDP miss and cooling PCE. Price has since clawed back above 160.00 on a series of higher lows into the Asia session, but sits below EMA20 with RSI(14) recovering from oversold near 46. The 157.96 week low and 160.00 line frame the current recovery attempt.
Support: 160.00, 157.96
Resistance: 161.53, 162.94
What it said to watch
BoJ decision + Outlook at 03:00 UTC (~2h) can materially reset this read — hawkish October signal vs boilerplate is the swing
Failure to hold 160.00 reopens the 157.96 week low
H1 close above 161.53 (fib 61.8) points toward the 162.94 pre-crash shelf
USD/JPY was violently squeezed lower into the NY session, breaking the 160.00 intervention line to a 157.96 crash low on suspected MoF action, compounded by broad USD softness after the US GDP miss and cooler PCE. Price has since carved a series of higher lows off the recovery low near 159.34 and reclaimed 160.00 into the Asia session. RSI(14) has lifted off oversold but price still sits well below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 160.00, 159.34, 157.96
Resistance: 162.90
What it said to watch
BoJ decision at 03:00 UTC — October-hike guidance could materially shift this read
Loss of 160.00 reopens the 157.96 crash low
Reclaim of 162.90 prior range needed to unwind the intervention move
USD/JPY collapsed roughly 2.4% from near 163.7 into 157.96 during NY hours on suspected Tokyo intervention, tearing through this week's 163.5–163.9 consolidation. Price has since clawed back above the 160.00 pivot to a 160.25 session high, with RSI(14) lifting off oversold as the initial spike fades. A wide gap sits between spot and the pre-intervention 162.70–163.00 zone.
Support: 160.00, 157.956
Resistance: 160.25, 162.70, 163.00
What it said to watch
BoJ decision in ~3h (03:00 UTC) — Outlook Report/October-hike guidance is the swing factor for this read
Failure to hold 160.00 reopens the path toward the 157.96 intervention low
Recovery back above the 162.70 gap would signal a retrace toward the pre-intervention 163 area
Broke below week range, lower-low then basing above 160.00.
USDJPY was smashed from the pre-intervention 163.50 area to a 157.956 session low during NY hours on suspected MoF/BoJ intervention, a violent range break after days grinding near 163.60. Price has since based and reclaimed the 160.00 psych pivot, with RSI(14) lifting off oversold as a sequence of higher-lows forms off the low. Price sits well below EMA20/50, which cap any recovery back toward the 163 pre-intervention zone.
Support: 160.00, 158.514, 157.956
Resistance: 160.25, 163.00
What it said to watch
BoJ statement/Outlook Report ~03:00 UTC (~3h) is the dominant catalyst for this read
H1 close back above 160.25 session high opens room toward 163.00 pre-intervention area
Failure to hold the 160.00 psych pivot re-exposes 158.51 and 157.956 session low