Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:41 UTC
Sideways, coiling after a failed breakdown · RSI 43 · price 157.533
Lower high at 158.35 vs higher low at 156.96, contracting.
The early-month 157.50-158.95 range gave way to a drop to the 156.08 window low, but the break failed and the rebound stalled at 158.35. That lower high sits beneath the 158.95 range high, while the post-BoJ pullback held at a 156.96 swing low near the 61.8% retracement of the rebound, leaving a contracting lower-highs/higher-lows structure. Price is chopping just under converging EMA20 and EMA50. ATR(14) near 43 pips sits mid-regime, and the 157.74 pullback high is the nearest cap.
Support: 156.96, 156.08
Resistance: 157.74, 158.35, 158.95
What it said to watch
- H4 close below the 156.96 swing low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 156.08 window low
- Close above the 158.35 lower high invalidates the contraction read and puts the 158.95 range high back in play
- Reclaim of the 157.74 pullback high with EMA20 turning up would shift the near-term tone inside the triangle
- ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid (Mon 15:00 UTC) and Ueda's speech (Nov 6) could materially shift this read
17:37 UTC
Sideways, range-bound below flat EMAs · RSI 44 · price 157.533
Lower high at 158.35, higher low at 156.96, contracting.
USDJPY has spent three weeks inside a 156.08-158.95 range low to range high span. The recovery from the range low stalled at a lower high of 158.35. The hawkish BoJ hold and softer US yields then pulled price back to a 156.96 swing low, which sits almost exactly on the 61.8% retracement of that rally. The lower-high, higher-low sequence is compressing the swing range. Price is hovering just under a flat EMA20/EMA50 pair, and ATR near 41 pips shows no expansion yet.
Support: 157.12, 156.96, 156.08
Resistance: 157.74, 158.35, 158.95
What it said to watch
- H4 close above the 157.74 rebound high opens the path back to the 158.35 lower high
- Failure to hold 157.12 (post-BoJ low) and then the 156.96 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 156.08 range low
- Sustained trade above 158.35 breaks the lower-high trendline toward the 158.95 range high
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid (Mon Nov 2, 15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via US yields
- BoJ Gov. Ueda speech (Nov 6) on December hike timing is the key JPY-side risk to the range