The multi-week downtrend that broke the 200-day SMA bottomed at the YTD low of 61.49 before a violent ~6% rebound, driven by US-Iran de-escalation hopes, carried price back into the 67.25-69.00 resistance band. Higher lows have formed since the low and price now sits above the H4 EMA20 but remains below the EMA50, leaving the recovery a retest of broken structure rather than a confirmed trend turn. ATR is elevated after the crash, keeping swings wide and two-way.
Support: 67.25, 64.00, 61.50
Resistance: 69.00, 70.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 69.00 opens the path toward 70.00
Failure to hold the 67.25 200d sma reopens 64.00 then the 61.50 ytd low
FOMC dot-plot Wed 18:00 UTC and Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Silver collapsed to a YTD low near 61.50 mid-window as hot CPI cemented Fed-hike pricing, then ripped roughly 6% on US-Iran de-escalation hopes to reclaim the 200-dma pivot at 67.25, closing 68.04. Rising lows since the low mark a counter-trend recovery, but the broader structure remains a downtrend below the EMA50 with the 69.00 cap untested. ATR is elevated, reflecting the violent two-way swings.
Support: 67.25, 64.00, 61.50
Resistance: 69.00, 70.00
What it said to watch
FOMC dot plot Jun 17 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Close back below 67.25 reopens 64.00 then the 61.50 ytd low