Lower highs since Monday; tight shelf at the week low.
The week opened at 60.83 and printed its high at 61.44 in Monday's Asia session. Highs then stepped lower Monday through Wednesday, with silver churning between 58.40 and 60.70. Wednesday's hot core CPI broke that consolidation in the first hour of NY: price cut through the 58.40 prior lows and the 56.57 August low and fell roughly 3.1 to a 55.39 week low as the USD hit YTD highs. Since then price has compressed in a 55.39–55.80 shelf, well below EMA(20) near 56.80 (ema20), with RSI(14) near 17 holding in oversold territory.
Support: 55.00
Resistance: 56.57, 56.80, 58.40
What it said to watch
Thu 12:30 UTC PPI, Retail Sales and claims could materially shift this read; soft prints against oversold RSI risk a sharp bounce
An H1 close back above the 56.57 August low and the ema20 near 56.80 would mark the first reclaim since the CPI break
Failure to hold the 55.39 week low exposes the 55.00 round number
Any rebound into the 58.40 prior lows, near the 50% fib of the week's drop, tests former support as resistance; the lower highs sequence holds while price stays below it
22:04 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive after CPI, now stalling · RSI 16 · price 55.625
Lower highs all week, post-CPI breakdown basing 55.39-55.80.
The week opened at 60.83 and the Monday Asia high of 61.435 marked the top. Tuesday and Wednesday then printed lower highs at 60.72 and 59.36 while the 58.40–60.70 range held. The hot core CPI beat in Wednesday's NY session broke that range: silver dropped about $3 in four bars, through the 58.40 prior low and the 56.57 August low. Since then price has compressed between the 55.385 week low and 55.80, with RSI(14) near 16 deeply oversold and price well below EMA(20) around 57.10.
Support: 55.385, 55.00
Resistance: 56.57, 57.10, 58.40
What it said to watch
Thursday's 12:30 UTC US PPI, Retail Sales and claims cluster could materially shift this read
An H1 close back above the 56.57 August low would mark the first reclaim of broken structure
EMA(20) near 57.10 is the first dynamic cap on any rebound; the 58.40 prior low sits near the lower-high trendline
Failure to hold the 55.385 week low exposes the 55.00 round number
Lower highs since Monday's 61.435 peak; tight base above 55.39.
Silver printed the week high at 61.435 in Monday's Asia session, just above the 60.83 weekly open, then set lower highs at 60.72 on Tuesday and 59.36 on Wednesday along a lower-highs line, with Tuesday's NY session driving the first leg to 58.88. The hot core CPI print at the NY open broke the 58.40 pre-cpi base and the 56.57 august low, a roughly $3.3 slide in four bars to a 55.385 session low. Since then price has held a 55.39–55.80 band with RSI(14) near 13, about $1.50 below the ema20 at 57.15; the 61.44–55.39 fib places 23.6% at 56.81 and 50% at 58.41, close to the pre-cpi base.
Support: 55.385, 55.00
Resistance: 56.57, 57.15, 58.40
What it said to watch
Thursday 12:30 UTC US PPI and Retail Sales could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 56.57 august low would be the first reclaim of broken support
Failure to hold the 55.385 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 55.00 round number
A rebound into the 57.15 ema20 and the 38.2% fib at 57.70 is the first test of the lower-highs structure; the pre-cpi base at 58.40 aligns with the 50% level
Lower highs all week, pre-CPI range broken, lower-low at 55.39.
Silver opened the week at 60.83 and printed its week high of 61.44 in Monday's Asia session. It then carved lower highs at 60.72 on Tuesday and 59.36 early Wednesday before pinning into a 58.40–58.90 range. The hot core CPI print in the first hour of NY broke that pre-cpi low and the 56.57 aug low, a roughly $3 slide to the 55.39 cpi low. Since 16:00 UTC price has compressed in a tight 55.39–55.80 band, well below EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 16 deep in oversold territory.
Support: 55.00
Resistance: 56.57, 57.70, 58.40
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 56.57 aug low would be the first reclaim of broken structure since CPI
Failure to hold the 55.39 cpi low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 55.00 psych level
Rebounds into the fib 38.2 at 57.70 (week high to cpi low) and the 58.40 pre-cpi low are areas to watch for rejection
Lower highs trendline from Monday's 61.44 high remains the cap on the week's structure
Thu 12:30 UTC PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims could materially shift this read
19:05 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after impulse · RSI 17 · price 55.592
Lower highs since Monday, range break lower on CPI.
Monday's Asia-session high at 61.435 was the week top. Every session since has printed a lower high, with Tuesday's NY session breaking under 60.00 and Wednesday holding a 58.40 pre-cpi base. The hot US core CPI beat then drove a ~$3 slide from the NY open through the August low at 56.57 to a 55.439 session low, leaving price well below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 17. The last three bars are compressing in a 55.44–55.80 band, and the 38.2% fib of the week's decline sits at 57.73.
Support: 55.439, 55.00
Resistance: 56.57, 57.73, 58.40
What it said to watch
Thu 12:30 UTC US PPI, Retail Sales and Claims cluster (~17h) could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 56.57 august low would mark the first reclaim of the CPI breakdown
Failure to hold the 55.439 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 55.00 psych
Rebound into the 57.73 38.2% fib or the 58.40 pre-cpi base: area to watch for rejection under the lower-highs line
Lower highs from Monday's 61.435 peak; 58.36–59.36 range broken lower.
Silver peaked at 61.435 in Monday's Asian session and has printed lower highs since, giving back the 60.828 weekly open by Tuesday. Wednesday's hot core CPI broke the 58.36–59.36 range in the first hour of NY and drove a seven-bar slide of roughly 5% to a 55.449 session low, below the 56.57 August low. RSI(14) near 12 is deeply oversold, and price sits about 1.9 below the ema20 near 57.39, with no H1 base yet.
Support: 55.449, 55.00
Resistance: 56.57, 57.39, 58.363
What it said to watch
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC is due now and could shift the post-CPI read
Thursday 12:30 UTC Retail Sales, PPI and jobless claims could materially move silver
An H1 close back above the 56.57 aug low would mark the first repair of the CPI breakdown
Failure to hold the 55.449 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 55.00 psych level
A reclaim of the ema20 near 57.39 would end the impulsive leg; the 58.363 pre-cpi low is the next former-support cap
17:05 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg after CPI · RSI 13 · price 55.631
Lower highs since Monday's 61.435 week high; pre-CPI 58.40–59.35 range broken.
Silver has printed lower highs since Monday's 61.435 week high, with the 60.721 and 59.359 peaks forming a falling ceiling. During the NY session the hot core CPI (0.3% m/m vs 0.2%) knocked price out of Wednesday's 58.40–59.35 range and through the 56.57 aug low in four straight bearish bars, to a 55.506 session low. Price now sits about 200 pips below EMA(20) near 57.66 with RSI(14) deeply oversold, and the stretch from the week high to the CPI low gives a 38.2% fib near 57.77.
Support: 55.506, 55.00
Resistance: 56.57, 57.66, 58.396
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 56.57 aug low would mark the first repair of the CPI breakdown
Failure to hold the 55.506 session low extends the leg toward the 55.00 psych handle
Recovery stalling at EMA(20) or the 58.396 prior low keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
Oversold RSI(14) forming a bullish divergence on a new low would signal fading downside momentum
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 UTC and Thursday's 12:30 UTC Retail Sales/PPI could materially shift this read
16:04 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating after CPI · RSI 11 · price 55.667
Lower highs since Monday; range floor broken.
Silver opened the week at 60.83 and topped at 61.435 in Monday's Asia session. Lower highs followed at 60.72 on Tuesday and 59.36 on Wednesday, with the 59.56 Tuesday low giving way in NY hours. The hot core CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke Wednesday's 58.36–58.88 range floor, and four straight bearish bars through the NY session sliced through the 56.57 August low to a 55.648 session low. RSI(14) near 10 is deeply oversold and price sits far below both EMAs, though there is no divergence yet and no bar has closed back above the prior one.
Support: 55.648, 55.00
Resistance: 56.57, 58.363, 59.359
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 56.57 august low would mark the breakdown as a false break
Failure to hold the 55.648 session low exposes the 55.00 round number
A rebound toward 57.86 (38.2% week fib) or the 58.36 range floor would test the lower highs trendline structure
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 UTC today could extend or reverse the post-CPI move
Thu 12:30 UTC Retail Sales and PPI could materially shift this read; a soft pair would raise the odds of a squeeze into the august low
A break above the 59.36 lower high would invalidate the lower-highs sequence
Lower highs since Monday; two-month low broken, trading at fresh session low.
The week opened near 60.83 and the 61.435 Monday Asia-session high has capped the move since. Lower highs followed at 60.72 on Tuesday and 59.36 on Wednesday, and the hot core CPI beat (0.3% vs 0.2%) at 12:30 UTC then broke the 58.40 broken low (two-month low) and cleared the 56.57 august low in two NY-session bars. Price sits about $2 below EMA(20) at the 56.08 session low with RSI(14) near 20, deeply oversold after a ~$5.35 drop from the week high, and the 57.37 cpi bar low near the 23.6% retracement is the first overhead reference.
Support: 56.083, 56.00
Resistance: 56.57, 57.372, 58.396
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 56.57 august low would flag the post-CPI break as a false break
Failure to hold the 56.08 session low and the 56.00 round number extends the post-CPI leg
The lower-highs trendline from Monday stays intact unless price reclaims the 58.40 broken low, near the 38.2%–50% fib zone
The Beige Book at 18:00 UTC and Thursday's 12:30 UTC PPI and retail sales could materially shift this read
14:05 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating after CPI · RSI 12 · price 56.305
Lower highs since Monday, two-month low broken.
Silver has printed lower highs since Monday's 61.435 week high. The Tuesday NY session took price back below 60.00, and Wednesday's hot core CPI (0.3% m/m vs 0.2%) broke the 58.40 2-month low within two hours of NY trade, with a firmer USD and yields behind the move. The slide has already cut through the 56.57 August low and sits well below EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 12 deeply oversold and the 56.30 session low the latest reference ahead of the 56.00 round number.
Support: 56.305, 56.00
Resistance: 56.57, 57.45, 58.40
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 56.57 august low would turn the post-CPI extension below it into a false break
Failure to hold the 56.30 session low and the 56.00 round number extends the lower-high, lower-low sequence
A rebound into the 57.45 post-cpi high and the 58.40 2-month low (near the 38.2% of the week's drop fib at 58.27) tests whether the breakdown holds
A close back above the lower highs trendline from Tuesday would challenge the downtrend read
Bowman at 14:55 UTC and the Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could shift yields and the USD during NY hours
Thursday 12:30 UTC PPI and Retail Sales could extend or unwind the CPI repricing
Lower highs from Monday's 61.44 week high; two-month low broken on CPI.
Silver has printed lower highs since Monday's Asia-session peak at 61.44. The dominant legs came in Tuesday's NY session and again on today's hot core CPI (0.3% m/m vs 0.2% f/c), which broke Wednesday's 58.36–58.89 London range and the 58.49 two-month low, now a broken low overhead. Price sits well below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 21, and the 57.02 CPI low is the immediate reference ahead of the 56.57 August low.
Support: 57.017, 56.57
Resistance: 58.494, 58.705, 59.359
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 58.49 broken low would mark a false break of the two-month low
38.2% fib of the 61.44–57.02 drop at 58.71 sits just above the broken low as the first retracement marker
A move through the 59.36 lower high from Wednesday's Asia session breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 57.02 CPI low exposes the 56.57 August low
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 UTC and the Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could extend or fade the CPI move
Thursday 12:30 UTC PPI and retail sales could materially shift this read
12:05 UTC
Downtrend, below both EMAs · RSI 33 · price 58.511
Lower highs since Monday, testing two-month low.
Silver has printed lower highs since Monday's 61.435 Asian peak, at 60.72 on Tuesday and 59.36 at Wednesday's Asian high, as hawkish Fed pricing, high yields and firmer oil pressured the metal. Tuesday's NY session drove the main leg lower, and today's sell-off undercut Thursday's 58.494 low to a 58.363 week low. Price now sits just above the thu low, with EMA(20) near 58.94 capping bounces and RSI(14) near 33 without a divergence.
Support: 58.494, 58.363, 58.00
Resistance: 58.94, 59.359, 60.00
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC, with core m/m the swing factor, could materially shift this read
An H1 close below the 58.363 week low extends the lower-lows sequence below the two-month low
A reclaim of EMA(20) and the 59.36 asian high breaks the lower-highs pattern
59.90 week drop fib 50% sits next to the lower highs trendline and the 60.00 psych level, a confluence area for rejection or break
A round number test at 58.00 comes into view if the thu low fails on a closing basis
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's peak; tight base near 58.40-58.65.
Silver has printed lower highs from Monday's 61.435 Asia-session peak. Tuesday's NY-hours slide, driven by hawkish Fed repricing and firm yields, pushed price under 59.00. Wednesday's Asian bounce stalled at the 59.36 wed high, below the 38.2% fib of the week's decline, and the move into London open set a week low at 58.396, just under last Thursday's 58.494 thu low; price now sits below EMA(20) near 59.00 with RSI(14) around 31 into US CPI.
Support: 58.396, 58.494
Resistance: 59.00, 59.359, 59.557
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC: core m/m vs 0.2% f/c could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the ema20 near 59.00 and the 59.36 wed high would break the lower-high sequence
Sustained trade under the 58.40 week low confirms acceptance below the 58.494 thu low
A recovery into 59.56 (fib 38.2) tests the first retracement of the week's decline
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 61.435 high.
Silver has stepped lower since Monday's 61.435 Asia high, well above the 60.828 weekly open. Tuesday's NY session drove the main leg from 60.38 to 58.88 as hawkish Fed repricing and firmer oil lifted yields. A late-Asia drop today printed a week low at 58.396, slipping under Thursday's 58.494 two-month low; price sits below EMA(20) near 58.95 with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 58.396, 58.494
Resistance: 58.95, 59.359, 60.00
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~2.5h): core at 0.3%+ vs 0.2% f/c could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 58.396 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above EMA(20) and the 59.359 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of 60.00 psych puts price inside the 50% fib zone of the Monday-to-today decline
Lower highs since Monday's 61.435 peak, testing Thursday's low.
Silver has printed lower highs since Monday's Asian-session peak at 61.435. Tuesday's NY session drove the slide below the 60.00 psych level as the oil rebound revived Fed hike pricing. Wednesday's Williams-led Asian bounce stalled at the 59.359 lower high, a rejection at the descending line, and reversed into the London open to a week low of 58.396 just under the 58.494 Thursday low (thu low). Price is back near 58.53, below EMA20 (around 58.95) and EMA50, with RSI(14) near 30.
Support: 58.494, 58.396
Resistance: 58.95, 59.359, 60.00
What it said to watch
US September CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read. Core is forecast at 0.2% m/m; a beat or miss sets direction around the 58.40–58.50 lows.
An hourly close below the 58.396 week low extends the lower-low sequence beyond Thursday's low.
Recovery above EMA20 near 58.95 and the descending line near 59.03 would challenge the lower-high read.
A close above the 59.359 lower high breaks the sequence and puts the 50% fib near 59.92 and the 60.00 psych level in view.
Lower highs since Monday; sweep below Thursday's low, closes back above.
Silver has printed lower highs since the Monday Asia peak at 61.435. Tuesday's NY session drove the main leg from 60.40 to 58.88 as oil-led yield pressure revived hike fears. The Williams-driven Asia bounce stalled at a lower high near 59.36, below the 38.2% fib of the week's decline. A late-Asia drop then swept the thursday low at 58.494 to a fresh week low of 58.396 before hourly closes recovered above it. Price holds below the EMA(20) near 59.05 with RSI(14) around 29, a higher RSI low against Tuesday's NY trough that amounts to a bullish divergence into CPI.
Support: 58.494, 58.396
Resistance: 59.05, 59.359, 60.00
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~4.5h): core m/m vs the 0.2% forecast could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 58.396 week low negates the sweep and extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the EMA(20) and the 59.36 lower high breaks the lower-highs structure, with the 60.00 round number next above the 50% fib
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC is the first event risk before CPI
Lower highs since Monday's 61.435 week high, now below two-month low.
Silver has printed a sequence of lower highs since the 61.435 week high set early Monday. The dominant leg came during Tuesday's NY session, a slide from 60.47 to 58.88 as hawkish Fed pricing and elevated yields weighed. Wednesday's Asian rebound stalled at a 59.359 lower high under the ema20 (~59.10), and price has since slipped through the 2-month low at 58.494 to a 58.396 session low into the London open. RSI(14) sits near 33 with no divergence, and the 38.2% retracement of the week's drop sits near 59.56.
Support: 58.396, 58.00
Resistance: 58.494, 59.10, 59.359
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC today; a core miss or beat versus 0.2% MoM could materially shift this read
An H1 close back above the 2-month low at 58.494 would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 58.396 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 58.00 round number
A close above the lower-highs trendline and the 59.359 lower high breaks the sequence of lower highs
Bowman remarks at 09:40 and 14:55 UTC could add volatility around the ema20
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 61.435 week high.
Silver has printed lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 61.435 week high. Tuesday's London-NY transition and NY hours did most of the damage, taking price through the 60.000 psych level on hawkish Fed pricing and firm yields. The Asian bounce stalled at 59.359, a lower high and rejection just under EMA(20). The late-Asia drop back below the 59.000 round number now has price pressing Thursday's 58.494 2-month low, with RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 58.494, 58.00
Resistance: 59.00, 59.359, 60.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 58.494 2-month low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 58.000 round number
Recovery above the 59.359 lower high and EMA(20) would break the lower highs trendline; the 50% fib of the Mon high–Wed low fib sits near the 60.000 psych level
US CPI at 12:30 UTC today (core f/c 0.2% MoM), with Bowman at 09:40 UTC, could materially shift this read
Failure to reclaim the 59.000 round number keeps the 2-month low under repeated test
Lower highs from Monday's 61.44 peak; tight base 58.65–59.36 since Tuesday NY.
The week's dominant leg came in Tuesday's NY session, a slide from 60.38 to the 58.88 tue low on hawkish Fed pricing and elevated yields, extending the lower-high sequence from Monday's 61.44 and Tuesday's 60.72. The Asia session today probed a 58.65 asia low but held above Thursday's 58.49 2-month low, and Williams' dovish remarks have since steadied price into a 58.9–59.36 base. Price sits just under EMA(20) at 59.44, which has capped every bounce since Tuesday afternoon. RSI(14) is near 42, recovering from the lows.
Support: 58.88, 58.651, 58.494
Resistance: 59.44, 60.00, 60.721
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC today is the binary for this read; core above 0.2% m/m could materially shift it
H1 close above the 59.44 ema20 and then the 60.00 psych level would break the lower-high sequence from Monday
Failure to hold the 58.65 asia low and the 58.49 2-month low confirms a fresh lower-low
Descending trendline from Monday's high, near 60.10 now, marks the lower-high ceiling
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 61.44 high.
Silver has printed lower highs and lower lows since Monday's Asia-session peak at 61.44. The heaviest leg came in Tuesday's NY session, when hawkish Fed pricing and ~5.2% 10y yields drove price from 60.38 to the Tuesday NY low at 58.88, back below the 60.00 psych pivot. Wednesday's Asia dip set a fresh week low at 58.65 but stalled above Thursday's 58.49 2-month low, with RSI(14) making a higher low (~34 vs ~28) for a bullish divergence, while the rebound is capped at 59.34 under EMA(20) at 59.44 and EMA(50) near 59.78.
Support: 58.88, 58.651, 58.494
Resistance: 59.44, 60.00, 60.721
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read. Bowman at 09:40 UTC is the earlier risk.
An H1 close above EMA20 at 59.44 and the 38.2% fib of the Monday-to-Wednesday drop near 59.71 would challenge the lower-high sequence.
Losing the Tuesday NY low at 58.88, then the 58.65 week low and the 58.49 2-month low, would extend the downtrend and negate the RSI divergence.
Reclaiming the 60.00 psych pivot brings the Tuesday high at 60.72 and the lower highs trendline near 60.15 into view.
03:05 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading near the lows · RSI 38 · price 59.243
Lower highs and lower lows from Monday's 61.435 high.
Silver topped at 61.435 in Monday's Asia session, just above the ~60.83 week open. It has printed lower highs and lower lows since, with the main leg coming through the London-NY transition into NY hours Tuesday. That move pushed price back under the 60.00 psych level, as hawkish Fed pricing and ~5.2% 10y yields weighed. Wednesday's Asian low at 58.651 held above Thursday's 58.494 two-mth low, and price is back near 59.24, still capped below the ema20 (~59.46) with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 58.651, 58.494
Resistance: 59.46, 60.00, 60.721
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; core m/m vs the 0.2% forecast is the swing variable
H1 close back above the ema20 (~59.46) and the 60.00 psych level would break the lower-high sequence, with the 60.721 lower high and the descending trendline above
Failure to hold the 58.651 Asian low and Thursday's 58.494 two-mth low extends the lower-low structure
Fed's Bowman (09:40 and 14:55 UTC) and the Beige Book at 18:00 UTC are secondary risks around the CPI release
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 61.435 peak.
Silver has printed lower highs since Monday's Asia-session peak at 61.435. Tuesday's London-NY selloff broke psych 60 and took price below EMA(20) and EMA(50) as hawkish Fed pricing and high yields weighed, with bounces since stalling at the 59.35 swing high. Wednesday's Asia low at 58.651 marked a lower low on a higher RSI(14), roughly 32 against about 26 on Tuesday, a mild bullish divergence just above Thursday's 2-month low at 58.494.
Support: 58.651, 58.494
Resistance: 59.349, 60.721
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 59.35 swing high and EMA(20) near 59.46 would interrupt the lower-high sequence; 38.2% of this week's drop sits at 59.72
Failure to hold the 58.494 2-month low extends the downtrend and voids the divergence
Recovery through psych 60 toward the 60.721 lower high would challenge the downtrend read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read, with Bowman and the Beige Book later in the day
01:04 UTC
Downtrend, compressing into CPI · RSI 33 · price 59.031
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 61.44 high.
Silver opened the week at 60.83 and printed a 61.44 high in Monday's Asia session. It has since faded in a lower-high sequence, with the 60.72 Tuesday high capping below the descending trendline. Tuesday's NY session drove the dominant leg, from 60.38 to the 58.88 week low, as hawkish Fed expectations and ~5.2% 10y yields weighed. Since then price has compressed in a 58.90–59.35 band below EMA(20), with the 59.35 bounce high capping and RSI(14) holding near 33 without reaching oversold.
Support: 58.88, 58.49
Resistance: 59.35, 60.00, 60.83
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC today (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Bowman at 09:40 UTC is an earlier risk
H1 close below the 58.88 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 58.49 2-month low from last Thursday
H1 close above the 59.35 bounce high and EMA(20) breaks the compression and opens the 60.00 psych level, near the 38.2% fib of the Mon–Tue drop
Reclaim of the 60.83 weekly open would negate the lower-highs trendline read
Monday's Asia-session push to 61.435 marked the week high. Since then H1 has printed lower highs, including the 60.72 Tue high, and lower lows. The NY session drove Tuesday's decline back under the 60.00 psych level to a 58.88 Tue low as hawkish Fed pricing and high Treasury yields weighed. Price sits below the EMA(20) near 59.57 with RSI(14) around 33, the bounce off the Tue low capped quickly, and Thursday's 58.49 2-month low is the next shelf below.
Support: 58.88, 58.494
Resistance: 59.57, 60.00, 60.721
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; core at or above 0.3% MoM (f/c 0.2%) is the hot-print threshold
H1 close below the 58.88 Tue low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 58.49 2-month low
Recovery above the EMA(20) and the 60.00 psych level (38.2% of the decline near 59.86) would test the lower-highs trendline near 60.2
A push through the 60.72 Tue high breaks the lower-highs structure of the week
Fed's Bowman (09:40 and 14:55 UTC) and the Beige Book (18:00 UTC) add event risk around the CPI reaction