Lower highs since 71.17, three-touch base at 62.30.
H4 has trended lower since the 71.17 peak, carving a sequence of lower highs into a three-touch base at 62.30, but the last two sessions delivered a $3+ rebound that reclaimed the ema20 at 64.34 and cleared the 64.90 cap that had held the mid-window consolidation. Price is now inside the 50-61.8% retracement (65.11-65.78) of the 67.93-to-62.30 impulse, while the ema20 still sits under the ema50 at 64.72, so the bearish cross has not unwound. ATR(14) near 960 pips marks an expanded range regime consistent with the post-FOMC repricing after the hawkish dot plot; 66.14 week high and 66.99 swing high are the next reference points overhead.
Support: 64.34, 63.00, 62.30
Resistance: 66.14, 66.99
What it said to watch
H4 close back under the 64.34 ema20 puts the 63.00 range floor and the 62.30 triple base back in focus
ema20 crossing above the ema50 at 64.72 would end the bearish cross state
Rejection at the 66.14 week high keeps the lower-high sequence intact
S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMIs on 23 Sep could materially shift this read
Double bottom at 62.30 breaking the lower-high sequence.
Three weeks of lower highs from 71.16 built a chain of rejections into 64.88, and that cap has now given way: the last two bars added roughly 1.75 points to close at 65.66, back above both EMA20 (~64.27) and EMA50 (~64.73) for the first time in the window. The 62.30/62.33 double bottom held twice and the reclaim of the 64.10-64.20 neckline area has been extended, with the oil correction easing real-yield pressure after a fully-priced hawkish Fed. ATR(14) near 990 pips shows an expanding range rather than compression, so follow-through is being carried by wide bars.
Support: 64.88, 63.90, 62.30
Resistance: 66.14, 66.99
What it said to watch
Sustained trade above the 66.14 window high would open the 66.99 swing high as the next reference
A close back below the 64.88 prior high would frame this as a false break of the lower-high line
Loss of the 63.90 swing area would return focus to the 62.30 double bottom base
EMA20 still marginally below EMA50 — a cross would confirm the structural shift
US Industrial Production and Bowman remarks in the next session could reprice the move
15:26 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling near range top · RSI 51 · price 64.824
Lower highs since 71.17, but 62.30-65.26 range for ~25 bars.
The dominant sequence is still lower highs from 71.17, but the last 25 bars have carved a 62.30-65.26 range and the current bounce — driven by the crude correction easing real-yield pressure after the hawkish FOMC dot plot — has pushed price back above the EMA50 at 64.53 and into the 38.2% retracement of the 67.93→62.30 impulse. ATR(14) near 916 pips keeps the swings wide rather than compressing, with the 2.59-wide bar into 62.30 the outlier. RSI at 51 is neutral, and the 64.91 prior high / 65.26 swing high band has capped every attempt in this range so far.
Support: 64.53, 63.00, 62.30
Resistance: 64.91, 65.26
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close above the 64.91 prior high, then 65.26 swing high, invalidates the range read
Failure to hold the EMA50 at 64.53 puts 63.00 psych back in play
A close below the 62.30 range floor confirms a lower low and extends the downtrend
Fed's Bowman and US Industrial Production on Friday are the near-term catalysts for this read
13:06 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling at range cap · RSI 55 · price 64.824
Lower highs from 71.16 with a flattening 62.30-64.90 base.
Silver has carved lower highs since the 71.16 spike top — 68.31, then 65.26 — and the last three weeks of bars have compressed into a 62.30-64.90 band, with the 64.83-64.92 cluster capping four separate attempts. The hawkish FOMC dot path and 10y yields near 5% drove the 62.30 flush, but an oil-led rebound has taken price back to 64.82, closing right on the H4 EMA50 near 64.80 and above EMA20. ATR(14) near 940 pips is still elevated by the FOMC bar, so the base is holding without any resolution of the swing-high cap.
Support: 63.00, 62.30
Resistance: 64.90, 65.26
What it said to watch
An H4 close accepted above the 64.90 swing highs would break the lower-high sequence and put 65.26 prior high in play
Failure to hold 63.00 range floor re-opens the 62.30 swing low and confirms continuation of the downtrend
Repeated rejection at 64.90 while EMA50 caps closes keeps the multi-week range read intact
Fed's Bowman Friday 07:30 GMT and US Industrial Production 13:15 GMT are the nearest catalysts that could shift this structure
Lower highs since 67.93, but base holding at 62.30.
Silver remains in the sequence of lower highs that began at 67.93, but the decline has stalled into a two-week range between the 62.30 double bottom and the 64.92 range high, with 63.00 acting as the internal pivot. The hawkish FOMC dot path drove the second test of 62.30 before dip demand reclaimed 64 and lifted the last bar back to 64.82, just under the range high and now above both the EMA20 at 64.07 and the EMA50 near 64.56, though EMA20 still sits below EMA50. ATR(14) near 925 pips shows an expanded, headline-sensitive regime rather than compression, so range edges are being reached quickly in single bars.
Support: 64.07, 63.00, 62.30
Resistance: 64.92, 65.26
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 64.92 range high would break the lower-high sequence and open the path to the 65.26 prior high
Loss of 63.00 pivot on a closing basis would put the 62.30 double bottom base back in play
EMA20 crossing back above EMA50 would confirm the flattening momentum read
Fed's Bowman Fri 07:30 GMT and US Industrial Production Fri 13:15 GMT could materially shift this range read
The H4 sequence of lower highs from the 71.17 peak is intact — 67.93, then 65.26, then 64.91 — but the 62.30 swing low area has now been defended three times, the last on the hawkish FOMC dot-plot flush, and each successive low has come with a higher RSI reading. Price has reclaimed the 64.10-64.20 neckline and EMA20, yet is stalling into the 38.2% retracement of the 67.93-62.30 leg around 64.45, directly beneath EMA50 at 64.60. ATR(14) near 890 pips marks an expanded, headline-driven regime rather than a compressed one, with the whole two-week move confined to a 62.30-64.91 range.
Support: 64.15, 63.00, 62.30
Resistance: 64.60, 64.91, 65.26
What it said to watch
H4 acceptance above the 64.91 swing high would break the lower-high sequence and expose the 65.26 prior high
Rejection at EMA50 (64.60) followed by a close back under the 64.15 neckline restores the downside structure
Loss of the 63.00 range floor confirms a lower low and re-exposes 62.30
US jobless claims and Philly Fed at 12:30 GMT can materially shift this read inside the next bar
11:59 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling in range · RSI 54 · price 64.334
Lower highs since 71.17; three-week base 62.30-64.90.
Silver remains in a broad H4 downtrend from the 71.17 swing high, but the last three weeks have compressed into a 62.30-64.90 band with the 63.00 psych area repeatedly defended and supply capping at the range high. The hawkish Fed dot-plot lift drove the spike low at 62.30 before an oil pullback pulled price back above the 64.15 neckline, leaving it pinned between EMA20 support and EMA50 overhead. ATR(14) near 900 pips is expanding relative to mid-window, so range edges are being tested with force rather than drifting.
Support: 64.15, 63.00, 62.30
Resistance: 64.90, 65.26
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 acceptance above the 64.90 range high would negate the head and shoulders read and open the 65.26 prior high
A close back below the 64.15 neckline keeps the lower-high sequence dominant
Loss of the 63.00 psych area confirms a fresh lower low toward the 62.30 swing low
US jobless claims and Philly Fed at 12:30 GMT can reprice the rate path and materially shift this read