Silver unwound from Tuesday's 58.59 week high, and the heaviest leg came in Thursday's NY session, when oil-driven hike bets and firm US data pushed it through 55.00. Friday's NY session then printed a 53.02 yearly low that was rejected on a long lower wick. Since then H1 has compressed into a 53.71 range floor to 54.56 range top band, with RSI(14) recovering from the teens to the low 40s and the lower-highs line from Wednesday's 58.03 flattened out by the sideways drift. Monday's open gapped above the friday close but has faded back under EMA20 and below the 54.28 session high, short of the 54.33 23.6% level of the week fib.
Support: 53.923, 53.71, 53.016
Resistance: 54.277, 54.557
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 54.56 range top puts the 55.15 38.2% week fib in play
Failure to hold the 53.71 range floor re-exposes the 53.02 yearly low
A fill of Monday's gap back to the 53.92 friday close tests whether the open-hour lift holds
US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC and the FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 58.59; Friday range 53.70–54.25 after 53.02 rejection.
Silver rolled over from Tuesday's 58.59 week high and Wednesday's 58.03 lower high. The dominant leg ran from Thursday's Asia session through NY as oil-fed hike bets and firm US data pressured metals, taking out the 55.00 round number and then Friday's Asian low. Friday's NY-session spike to the 53.02 yearly low around the PMI beat was rejected, leaving a 53.70–54.25 consolidation with RSI(14) back near 47 from oversold, and Sunday's open gapped up to 54.21, above the friday close and EMA(20) and on the 23.6% retracement of the Thursday–Friday impulse.
Support: 53.92, 53.02
Resistance: 54.56, 55.00, 55.95
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the friday close at 53.92 fills the gap and returns price to the 53.70–54.25 consolidation
Loss of the 53.02 yearly low re-establishes the lower-low sequence
Close above the 54.56 friday high and the 55.00 round number would mark the first higher high since Wednesday, with the 55.95 breakdown level next above
Tue US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Wed FOMC (18:00 UTC) December-hike guidance could materially shift this read
21:06 UTC
Downtrend, basing after sharp leg lower · RSI 40 · price 53.923
Lower highs from 58.59; tight 53.45–54.56 band below EMA(20).
The week's high printed at 58.59 during Tuesday's NY session, and Wednesday's 58.03 retest set a lower high. Thursday's Asia-into-London slide cut through the 55.38 broken low on oil-fed hike bets and high yields. Friday's NY open sweep to the 53.02 yearly low, after firm US PMI and Michigan prints, was reclaimed. Price has since compressed between the 53.45 Asia low and the 54.56 swing high, capped just under EMA(20) near 54.10, with RSI(14) recovering to around 40 from oversold.
Support: 53.446, 53.016
Resistance: 54.10, 54.557, 55.38
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 53.45 asia low reopens the 53.02 yearly low
Acceptance below the 53.02 yearly low extends the lower-low sequence
H1 close above the 54.56 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 55.38 broken low in view
Tue US Durable Goods and Wed 18:00 UTC FOMC December-hike guidance could materially shift this read
Weekend Middle East headlines carry gap risk at Monday open