Lower highs from 61.85 to 58.59 to 54.56; 52.66–54.55 range.
The lower-high sequence from 61.85 through 58.59 to 54.56 is intact. Since last week's selloff, price has compressed into a 52.66–54.55 consolidation, with the range top capping three rebounds and a double low near 53.00 above the 52.66 YTD low. The final bar reclaimed the ema20 and pressed back into the range top as USD eased after the Fed presser, while price stays below EMA50. ATR(14) near 700 pips has contracted from the selloff, and the 38.2% fib at 54.92 is the next level overhead, with the 50% fib at 55.62 beyond.
Support: 53.95, 53.00, 52.66
Resistance: 54.55, 54.92, 55.62
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 54.55 range top would break the consolidation and expose the 38.2% fib at 54.92, then the 50% fib at 55.62
Loss of the ema20 near 53.95 would return price to the middle of the range
Failure to hold the 53.00 double low and the 52.66 YTD low would extend the lower-low sequence
Thu 12:30 GMT core PCE (f/c 0.3% MoM / 3.1% YoY) and Q3 GDP could materially shift this read
FOMC presser tone on December hike pricing (~84% priced) remains a live driver into the next bars
Lower highs and lower lows since 62.07; tight base 52.66-54.54.
Silver has printed lower highs at 62.07, 61.44 and 58.59 and lower lows down to the 52.66 YTD low. The 55.38 prior low gave way in the oil-driven, hawkish-Fed selloff, with a firm USD adding to the pressure. Since then price has compressed into a 52.66-54.54 range below both EMAs, with EMA20 still under EMA50, the 53.00 round number tested repeatedly and ATR(14) easing from the breakdown expansion.
Support: 53.00, 52.657
Resistance: 54.538, 55.385, 58.592
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 54.54 range high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 55.38 prior low and the 38.2% fib of the 58.59-52.66 leg (54.92) in focus
Failure at the 53.00 round number and a break of the 52.66 ytd low extends the lower-low structure
Rallies stalling at the lower-highs trendline keep the downtrend read intact; the 58.59 lower high is the bigger structural cap
FOMC decision at 18:00 GMT today and the press conference could materially shift this read, with Thursday's core PCE as the follow-through test
13:06 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 43 · price 53.759
Lower highs from 58.59; tight 52.66-54.55 range after breakdown.
Silver has made lower highs at 58.59 and 58.03 since mid-month. The slide through the 55.38 prior low came amid equity-stress liquidation, firm US data and hawkish Fed pricing. Since then price has built a tight range: the range floor near 53.00 held on repeated tests ahead of the 52.66 YTD low, and the range cap at 54.55 has capped three rallies. Bar ranges are narrowing into the Fed, and price sits below both EMAs with EMA20 well under EMA50.
Support: 53.00, 52.66
Resistance: 54.55, 55.38
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 53.00 range floor and the 52.66 YTD low resumes the lower-low sequence
H4 close above the 54.55 range cap, near the 38.2% fib, opens a retest of the 55.38 prior low at the 50% fib
Fed decision 18:00 GMT and the 18:30 GMT press conference could break the range either way
Thu Core PCE as follow-through on the Fed reaction
A break above the lower-highs trendline would ease the downtrend read
Lower highs from 62.07; tight 52.66-54.54 base after second leg down.
Silver has printed lower highs along the lower-highs line from 62.07, with the 58.59 rebound failing before a second leg broke the 55.38 broken low on rising oil and hawkish Fed pricing. Since then price has based between the 53.00 double low and the 52.66 YTD low, with the bounce capped at the 54.54 swing high. Price is also back below the EMA20 near 54.24 and well under the 23.6% fib of the 58.59-52.66 drop. ATR(14) has eased to roughly 715 pips from the breakdown bars, so the range is compressing beneath declining EMAs.
Support: 53.00, 52.66
Resistance: 54.24, 54.54, 55.38
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An H4 close below the 52.66 YTD low extends the lower-low sequence
Acceptance above the 54.54 swing high and the 38.2% fib near 54.92 would challenge the 55.38 broken low
Failure to hold the 53.00 double low puts the base edge under pressure
Thursday 12:30 UTC PCE and claims are a second volatility event for the consolidation
05:05 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight base · RSI 44 · price 54.019
Lower highs from 58.03; consolidating 52.66–54.54 above the YTD low.
Lower-high structure has held since the 58.03 swing, with the break of the 55.38 prior low last Thursday extending the slide as higher oil and a firm USD weighed on silver. Over the past week price has been boxed between the 53.00 base, defended three times, and a 54.54 range high, with the latest dip setting a YTD low at 52.66. Price sits just under the ema20 and near the 23.6% retracement of the 58.59–52.66 leg. ATR(14) is compressing from the breakdown expansion.
Support: 53.004, 52.657
Resistance: 54.54, 55.385
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC today and press conference 18:30 UTC could break the 52.66–54.54 consolidation either way
H4 close below the 52.66 YTD low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 50.00 psych level
Acceptance above the ema20 and the 54.54 range high breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the 54.92 (38.2%) to 55.38 prior low zone
Thu 12:30 UTC core PCE (f/c 0.3% m/m) as follow-through or reversal of the FOMC move
01:05 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 52 · price 54.419
Lower highs and lower lows since 62.07, now ranging 52.66-54.55.
Silver has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 62.07 peak. Last week's oil- and Fed-hike-driven breakdown through 55.38 broken support ran to the 52.66 YTD low, and that low marks a quick false break of the 53.00 twin lows that reversed within two bars. Price now presses the 54.55 range high, holding above the ema20 but below a falling EMA50 with the EMA20 still under the EMA50, while ATR(14) near 720 pips has compressed from the breakdown legs ahead of the Fed.
Support: 54.05, 53.00, 52.66
Resistance: 54.55, 55.38, 58.59
What it said to watch
H4 close above 54.55 range high opens the 54.92 fib 38.2% and 55.38 broken support
Failure back below 53.00 twin lows puts the 52.66 ytd low back in play and resumes the lower-low sequence
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC and Powell presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Thu core PCE is the follow-through test
Downtrend read holds while price stays under the lower-high line near 57.2 and the 58.59 lower high
Slip back under the ema20 near 54.05 returns price to the middle of the range