Lower highs since post-FOMC 54.605 spike; range floor broken Thursday.
Silver has printed lower highs along a descending trendline since Wednesday's post-FOMC spike to 54.605. Thursday's break of the 52.48–52.66 floor came after the Q3 GDP beat firmed Fed hike pricing, and the drop picked up through Friday's London and NY sessions to a week low at 48.851, even with the dollar softer at times. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 28 and oversold. The late NY bounce capped at 49.38, beneath the 50.00 psych level, which lines up with the 23.6% retracement of the week's drop.
Support: 48.851, 48.64
Resistance: 49.383, 50.00, 51.092
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 49.38 bounce high and the 50.00 psych level would mark the first higher high since Thursday
Failure to hold the 48.85 week low exposes the 48.64 nov support
Reclaim of the 51.09 fri asia low (38.2% fib) and the lower-highs trendline would invalidate the downtrend read
ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.7, Prices Paid f/c 77.5) could materially shift this read; a miss leaves oversold price prone to a sharp short-covering bounce
17:40 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 27 · price 49.118
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's post-FOMC high.
Silver has printed lower highs and lower lows since the post-FOMC spike to 54.605 late Wednesday. The 52.60 range floor gave way Thursday as the Q3 GDP beat kept December hike pricing firm, and Friday's London and NY sessions extended the slide through the 50.00 psych/ema20 zone to a week low at 48.851. RSI(14) sits near 27, and the late bounce into Friday's close stalled at 49.383, well short of the lower-highs trendline near 50.40.
Support: 48.851, 48.64
Resistance: 49.383, 50.00, 51.05
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 50.00 psych/ema20 zone would be the first break in the lower-high sequence since Wednesday
Failure to hold the 48.851 week low exposes the 48.64 nov support
A recovery to the 38.2% fib of the post-FOMC drop at 51.05 would mark a deeper retracement
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid Mon 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read