22:27 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since late-August peak · RSI 33 · price 48.691
LH/LL chain from 71.165; testing the late-Oct/early-Nov lows.
Silver has been in a downtrend since the 71.165 late-August peak. Lower highs at 67.53 and the 53.70 swing high sit along a falling lower-high line, and price is below both declining EMAs, the ema20 at 52.97 and ema50 at 56.89. Hot October CPI and hawkish Fed repricing drove a >5% weekly drop that retested the lows and printed a new low at 48.475, just under the 48.60 prior low. RSI at 32.6 holds above its late-October 23.7 trough, a bullish divergence not yet confirmed by price, with the 50.00 psych level the first cap and the 53.70 swing high near the 23.6% retracement of the Aug–Nov decline.
Support: 48.475, 48.599
Resistance: 50.00, 52.966, 53.701
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 48.475 new low extends the lower-low sequence and voids the RSI divergence
- Recovery back above 50.00 psych would be the first sign the retest of the prior low is holding
- Close above the 53.70 swing high breaks the lower-high line and the LH/LL chain; ema20 at 52.97 caps before it
- Fed Chair Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC and Retail Sales Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Jefferson speaks tonight