Gold printed a fresh YTD low at 3941 mid-week as hawkish Fed repricing and firm yields dominated, then staged a sharp relief bounce that spiked to a 4115 week high before fading. Price has since drifted back to 4043, hovering above EMA20 with RSI(14) reset to neutral near 50 after the surge. The 4068 prior high capped the pullback attempt while dip demand held above the 4000 psych pivot.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,941.00
Resistance: 4,068.00, 4,115.00
What it said to watch
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of 4000 psych re-opens the 3941 ytd low and 3930/3885 zone below
H1 close above 4068 prior high puts the 4115 week high back in view
Sharp bounce from 3942 base, now retracing the impulse.
Gold based twice near the 3942 YTD low before a NY-session surge today drove it to 4108, a short-covering spike as soft ADP and ISM trimmed some of the hawkish-Fed pressure. Price has since faded back to 4035, sitting between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of that impulse while holding above EMA20. RSI(14) has cooled toward 50 after tagging overbought on the spike.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,960.00
Resistance: 4,050.00, 4,070.00, 4,108.00
What it said to watch
US NFP Thu 12:30 UTC is the dominant risk into the next sessions
Loss of 4000 psych opens a retest of the 3960 swing low
Reclaim of 4050 pivot puts the 4070 prior high back in play
Gold has clawed back from Tuesday's 3942 ytd low, carving a rounded bottom before a sharp NY-session impulse broke above the 4030 pivot toward the 4108 week high — short-covering relief after the week's hawkish-Fed repricing pinned bullion sub-4000. Price is now retesting 4030-4050 from above with RSI(14) cooling off the 4108 spike back near 57, holding above EMA20 and EMA50. The 4093 prior high has capped the pullback attempt so far.
Support: 4,030.00, 4,000.00, 3,942.00
Resistance: 4,093.00, 4,108.00
What it said to watch
US NFP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Close back below 4030 breakout negates the recovery and reopens 4000 psych
Sustained move above 4093 prior high exposes the 4108 week high
Sharp bounce off lows, pulling back after rejection.
Gold based near the YTD-low zone around 3942/3960 through Tuesday, then ripped higher in the NY session — a 95-dollar impulse bar drove price through 4034 and up to 4108/4115 on the softer ADP and cooler ISM prints. Price has since faded to 4069, holding above the reclaimed EMA20 but stalling under the 4088–4108 supply that capped the spike. The move fits the stretched-positioning relief-bounce read after four straight losing days.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,941.00
Resistance: 4,088.00, 4,108.00
What it said to watch
US Nonfarm Payrolls Fri 12:30 UTC is the pivotal catalyst and could reshape this read entirely
Sustained hold above 4088 needed to retest the 4108 session high
Close back below 4000 psych reopens the 3941 YTD low
Sharp reclaim from 3941, pulling back after 4115 tag.
Gold carved a YTD low near 3941 mid-week then staged a sharp recovery, the NY session ripping from ~4020 to 4115 on the heaviest-volume bar of the week before rejecting back toward 4070. That reclaim broke back above the 4030 shelf that had capped price, so the near-term structure is a recovery leg, though the broader read stays offered per the hawkish-Fed repricing. RSI cooled off the highs into the 60s as the last two bars faded.
Support: 4,030.00, 4,000.00, 3,941.00
Resistance: 4,115.00
What it said to watch
US NFP Thu Jul 2 12:30 UTC is the decisive catalyst for this read
Hold above 4030 keeps the recovery leg intact
Loss of 4000 psych reopens the 3941 ytd low
Close above 4115 week high extends the bounce
16:02 UTC
Recovery bounce off YTD lows, momentum up · RSI 64 · price 4,085.54
Sharp reclaim of 4000 after basing near 3941/3960.
Gold based twice near the 3941 YTD-low area (3942 then 3960) before a strong NY-session impulse reclaimed both 4000 and 4050, tagging 4115 before easing to 4085. This is a relief bounce against a broader hawkish-Fed, firmer-yield backdrop that pinned metal sub-4000 all week; price now sits above EMA20/50 with RSI(14) pushing into the low-60s. The 4093–4115 band is capping the first pullback after the spike.
Support: 4,050.00, 4,000.00, 3,941.00
Resistance: 4,093.00
What it said to watch
US NFP/AHE Thu 12:30 UTC is the decisive catalyst and can override this read
Rounded base broken to the upside, higher lows building.
Gold carved a rounded base after printing a fresh seven-month low at 3941 and has since rallied hard through the NY session, tagging 4116 on soft ADP and ISM manufacturing misses that took some steam out of the firmer dollar. Price sits at 4091, back above both EMAs with RSI cycling into the high-60s. The 4088 recovery cap has flipped, and the 4000 psych level was reclaimed on the way up.
Support: 4,030.00, 4,000.00, 3,941.00
Resistance: 4,116.00, 4,088.00
What it said to watch
US Nonfarm Payrolls Jul 2 12:30 UTC (~22h) is the pivotal print and can materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 4088 recovery cap on a pullback reopens 4030 breakout base
H1 close above 4116 week high extends the recovery leg
Loss of 4000 psych puts the 3941 seven-month low back in focus
13:03 UTC
Downtrend, basing after selloff · RSI 55 · price 4,021.45
Recovery off week low, back above 4000.
Gold sold for a third straight session into the week's $3,941 low before dip-buyers stabilised it above the $4,000 handle, capping an ugly quarter on hawkish-Fed repricing. Price has since reclaimed EMA20 and pushed to 4035 with RSI cycling back to mid-range, though the broader H1 structure remains a series of lower highs from the 4096 peak. The recovery is finding acceptance around 4020 — the 50% retrace of the 4096-3941 leg.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,941.00
Resistance: 4,035.00, 4,063.00, 4,096.00
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh (13:00 UTC) and ISM PMI (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read within the next bars
H1 close back below 4000 reopens the 3941 week low
Close above 4035 session high exposes 4063 and the 4096 week high
Gold spent most of the week offered into its worst quarter in years, printing a fresh seven-month low near 3941 before dip-buyers stabilised it. The last two sessions have clawed back above the 4000 psych pivot, with the latest H1 candle breaking sharply higher to 4032 and RSI(14) recovering toward 60. Price now sits at roughly the 59% retracement of the 4096-3941 decline, with 4050 the immediate recovery cap.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,960.00, 3,941.00
Resistance: 4,050.00, 4,088.00
What it said to watch
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Warsh (13:00 UTC) due — could materially shift this read within the next bar
H1 close back below 4000 psych re-exposes the 3960 swing low and 3941 weekly low
Acceptance above 4050 prior high opens the path toward the 4088 week high
11:03 UTC
Downtrend this week, stabilizing near 4000 · RSI 54 · price 4,001.24
Basing off 3941 low, higher low at 3960.
Gold sold off from this week's 4079 open to a fresh low of 3941 before basing and reclaiming the 4000 psychological pivot into today's session. Price recovered off a higher low near 3960 with RSI(14) lifting back toward the mid-50s, but it remains capped below the 4034 prior high and EMA(50). The rebound follows repeated dip-buying at the 4000/3941 zone against a hawkish-Fed, firmer-USD backdrop.
Support: 3,960.00, 3,941.00
Resistance: 4,034.00, 4,079.00
What it said to watch
Loss of 3960 reopens the 3941 ytd low
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Warsh (13:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Reclaim of 4034 needed to challenge the 4079 week open
Lower highs off 4090; 7-month low at 3941 then bounce.
Gold sold off through the week from ~4090 to a fresh 7-month low of 3941 on the hawkish Fed repricing and firmer USD, then dip buyers lifted it back toward 4063 before that bounce faded. Price now sits below EMA20 and EMA50 around 3984, coiling between the 3960 swing low and the 4000 psychological pivot after tapping the 61.8% retrace of the relief leg. RSI(14) has recovered off oversold but remains sub-50, matching the corrective-bounce read.
Support: 3,960.00, 3,941.00
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,063.00
What it said to watch
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Warsh (13:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
A clean break below 3941 opens 3930/3885
Hourly close back above 4000 psych would ease downside pressure
Gold has rolled over through the week on the hawkish Fed repricing, sliding from the 4096 high to the 3941 YTD low before a short-covering bounce to 4034 faded during the NY session. Price now sits back below EMA20 (~3998) and the 4000 psych level, consolidating in a 3960–3985 band with RSI cycling in the low 40s. The structure remains a series of lower highs, with the 3960 recent low and 3941 YTD floor the immediate downside pivots.
Support: 3,960.00, 3,941.00
Resistance: 3,998.00, 4,034.00
What it said to watch
Break of 3941 YTD low confirms a lower-low and opens the SocGen 3930/3885 zone
Reclaim of 4034 bounce high needed to challenge the lower-high sequence
ADP 12:15 UTC and ISM 14:00 UTC could drive the next impulse; NFP block Thursday 12:30 UTC
Gold remains under pressure in the hawkish-Fed repricing that dragged it from this week's 4096 high to the 3941 YTD low; the bounce to 4063 has since faded through a string of lower highs and price is drifting back below the 4000 psychological level. RSI(14) sits in the low-40s and price is below both EMA20 and EMA50, keeping the intraday tone heavy, though the 3960 area has so far absorbed the decline. This is a wait for the labor-data impulse.
Support: 3,960.00, 3,941.00
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,063.00
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 could materially shift this read
Loss of 3960 support opens the 3941 YTD low
H1 close back above 4000 psych challenges the lower-highs sequence
Downtrend intact since the week's high near $4,096, with price printing a fresh YTD low at $3,942 before dip buyers defended the $4,000 psych level. The relief bounce to $4,034 was rejected and price has rolled back below $4,000, EMA20/50 stacked overhead. The grind reflects hawkish-Fed repricing that drove gold's worst quarter in 13 years.
Support: 3,941.00
Resistance: 4,034.00
What it said to watch
Close below 3941 ytd low exposes the 3930/3885 zone
Reclaim of 4034 needed to challenge the descending lower highs
ADP 12:15 UTC and Warsh 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Gold has bled from the ~4096 high into a fresh YTD low at 3941 this week, in line with hawkish-Fed repricing and its worst quarter in years. A relief bounce into the NY session tagged 4063 before being rejected, and price has since rolled back under the 4000 psych level, printing lower highs. RSI(14) sits in the low 40s with price trading below both EMA(20) and EMA(50).
Support: 3,960.00, 3,941.00
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,034.00, 4,063.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below 3960 support exposes the 3941 ytd low
Reclaim of the 4000 psych level needed to challenge 4034 prior high
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed Chair Warsh (13:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
05:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs · RSI 41 · price 3,976.26
Sequence of lower highs, holding above 3941 base.
Gold has printed lower highs since the week's 4096 peak, sliding to a fresh 3941 low before dip buyers lifted it back to 4034. That bounce failed and price has rolled back below 4000, sub EMA20 and EMA50, as the hawkish-Fed/higher-yields backdrop keeps rallies shallow. Rejection at the 4034 area leaves the near-term structure heavy, with RSI(14) cycling in the low-40s.
Support: 3,960.00, 3,941.00
Resistance: 4,034.00, 4,096.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below 3960 opens the 3941 week low and SocGen's 3930/3885 zone
Reclaim above 4034 swing high negates the lower-high sequence
ADP 12:15 UTC and Warsh 13:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
Gold rolled over from the 4096 week high into a steady sequence of lower highs, driven by the hawkish-Fed repricing weighing on the metal all week. A sweep of the 3941 YTD low sparked a NY-session bounce to 4037, but that lower high was rejected and price has faded back below the 4000 psych level, sitting under both EMAs with RSI(14) sub-45.
Support: 3,960.00, 3,941.00
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,037.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below 3960 swing low reopens the 3941 ytd low
Reclaim of 4037 lower high needed to challenge the downtrend structure
ADP (12:15 UTC), Warsh speech (13:00) and ISM Mfg (14:00) could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower · RSI 41 · price 3,980.21
Lower highs, pressing 4000 psych.
Gold is grinding out lower highs on the week after the hawkish-Fed repricing drove its worst quarter in over a decade; the mid-week peak near 4096 gave way to a fresh 3942 low before a bounce. That recovery stalled at 4063 into the last NY session and price has since rolled back below EMA(20) and EMA(50) toward the 4000 psych level. RSI(14) sits in the low-40s, with the earlier bullish divergence at the 3942 low still on the tape.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,960.00, 3,941.00
Resistance: 4,034.00, 4,063.00, 4,096.00
What it said to watch
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed Chair Warsh (13:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Loss of 4000 psych opens the path to 3960 and the 3941 ytd low
H1 close back above 4034 swing high would negate the lower-high sequence
02:02 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower · RSI 34 · price 3,977.80
Lower highs, rolling back under 4000.
Gold has resumed its slide this week on the hawkish-Fed repricing, printing a seven-month low near 3941 before a bounce to 4063 stalled and reversed. Price rolled back through the 4000 psychological level into the NY session and is now pinned below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI sub-35. The 4096-to-3941 impulse still frames the structure; each rally has met supply at successive lower highs.
Support: 3,941.00
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,063.00
What it said to watch
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed Chair Warsh (13:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Clean break of 3941 ytd low opens the path toward 3930/3885
H1 close back above 4000 psych challenges the lower-high sequence
01:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold near lows · RSI 43 · price 3,997.07
Lower highs, retesting 4000 pivot.
Gold's worst quarter in 13 years extended as price flushed to the 3942 YTD-low area during the NY session before short-covering lifted it back toward 4063. That bounce faded and H1 has printed a series of lower highs, slipping back below the 4000 pivot with RSI(14) sub-45 and price under both EMAs. The 3960–3941 zone is the near-term floor being retested as bargain buying meets a firm dollar.
Support: 3,960.00, 3,941.00, 3,885.00
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,063.00
What it said to watch
Close below 3941 ytd low opens SocGen supports at 3930/3885
Reclaim of 4000 pivot needed to challenge the lower-highs line
ADP 12:15 UTC, Warsh 13:00 UTC and ISM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:03 UTC
Near-term pullback, below EMAs · RSI 43 · price 4,007.79
Lower highs off 4063 bounce.
Gold bounced off the YTD low near 3941 to 4063 through Tuesday's NY session but has since faded into a series of lower highs, slipping back under the EMA20 at ~4022 as a firmer Dollar capped the move. Price is now pinned to the 4000 psych pivot with RSI(14) sagging into the low 40s; the 3941 swing low and 4063 bounce high frame the week's range. The retracement has retraced roughly half of the 3941–4063 leg.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,941.00
Resistance: 4,022.00, 4,063.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 4022 ema20 re-engages the 4063 swing high
Failure to hold 4000 psych opens the 3941 ytd low
ADP/Warsh/ISM on Wed 12:15–14:00 UTC could materially shift this read