22:08 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs and lower lows since early September · RSI 36 · price 3,930.15
LH/LL chain; October 4100-4200 base broken, rebound capped under broken low.
Two-month downtrend from the 4510.88 early-September high. Price has made a clean lower-high/lower-low sequence and sits below both EMAs, with EMA(50) sloping lower. The 4100-4200 October base gave way on Oct 22, and Friday's liquidation-driven slide set a yearly low at 3870.26 as oil and yield pressure forced selling; this week's rebound has stalled below the broken low at 3975.70, holding a week low of 3895.52, with RSI near 36 and not yet oversold.
Support: 3,895.52, 3,870.26
Resistance: 3,975.70, 4,082.67, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 3870.26 yearly low extends the lower-low chain and the declining lows line toward ~3850
- Daily close back above the 3975.70 broken low undercuts the breakdown read; the 4082.67 lower high is the next pivot in the LH sequence
- Oct high at 4227.28 sits near the 50% retrace of the Sep-Oct decline fib; reclaiming it would end the lower-high structure
- Loss of the 3895.52 week low would leave the rebound as a one-day bounce inside the downtrend
- Midterm results overnight and Wed ADP / ISM Services could materially shift yields and Dec Fed hike odds, and with them this read