Lower highs and lower lows; tight post-flush range below EMA20.
Gold has printed lower highs from Friday's post-payrolls spike at 4227 through Tuesday's 4183.89 week high, and Wednesday's yield- and USD-driven slide into the NY morning set a 4066.52 week low. The rebound stalled at the 4126.92 rebound high, near the 50% retracement of the Wednesday selloff. Since then price has held a 4100–4114 band below EMA(20) through the hawkish FOMC Minutes, with RSI(14) near 41, dips absorbed at the 4100 round number and the weekly open at 4141 overhead.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,126.92, 4,141.32, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4100 round number exposes the 4066.52 week low
Reclaim of the 4126.92 rebound high and the weekly open at 4141 would break the lower-highs sequence
H1 close above the 4183.89 week high invalidates the downtrend read
Fed's Waller (Thu 08:30 UTC) and Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 200K) could materially shift this read via yields
Lower highs and lower lows; post-spike consolidation 4100–4127 below EMA(20).
Tuesday's London-to-NY rally to 4183.89 was fully unwound on Wednesday. The sharpest leg came in the London-NY transition, printing a week low at 4066.52 as long-end yields and the USD extended, with hawkish FOMC Minutes later in the day adding no fresh downside. The recovery has stalled at the 4126.92 rebound high, near the 50% retracement of the Tuesday-Wednesday drop, leaving price under EMA(20) and EMA(50), against the lower highs line from Tuesday's peak, and with RSI(14) only back to ~42; the 4100 round number has held on two retests since the spike, while the weekly open at 4141.32 sits alongside the 61.8% level.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,117.60, 4,126.92, 4,141.32
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4126.92 rebound high and the lower highs line opens a deeper retrace toward the weekly open at 4141.32
Loss of the 4100 round number puts the 4066.52 week low back in play
H1 closes back above EMA(20) at ~4117.6 would mark the first shift in the lower-high sequence
Thursday's Waller speech (08:30 UTC) and Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
Friday's Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) are the next high-impact risk for the 4066–4100 zone
Since Monday's 4141 weekly open gold has carved lower highs. Tuesday's NY-session high at 4183.89 fell well short of Friday's 4227 spike, and Wednesday's London-to-NY slide extended into an early-NY drop to a 4066.52 week low as yields and the USD resumed rising. The rebound has retraced roughly 38–50% of the 4184–4066 leg; the 4126.92 bounce high was rejected at the 50% level, and EMA(20) near 4118 has capped H1 closes since the hawkish FOMC Minutes, while RSI(14) has recovered from sub-30 to about 44. Price is holding the 4100 area on the post-Minutes low at 4100.37, with the 23.6% fib at 4094 and the week low beneath.
Support: 4,100.37, 4,094.22, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,126.92, 4,141.32
What it said to watch
H1 closes above EMA(20) and the 4126.92 bounce high would negate the rejection read and expose the 4141 weekly open near the 61.8% retrace of the 4184–4066 leg
Failure to hold the 4100.37 minutes low and the fib 23.6 at 4094 puts the 4066.52 week low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Lower-high trendline from Friday's 4227 runs near 4173; only a reclaim of that line would challenge the downtrend structure
Thu: Waller 08:30 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
Mon–Tue range broken lower; lower highs since Tuesday's NY high.
Gold broke the Monday–Tuesday 4104–4184 range during Wednesday's London session, then flushed to a 4066.52 week low near the NY open as yields and the USD climbed. The rebound stalled at 4126.92, the rebound high near the 50% fib of the 4183.89–4066.52 drop, and faded back to the 4100 round number after the hawkish FOMC Minutes. Price sits below EMA(20) near 4118 with RSI(14) around 38, and the lower-high trendline from Tuesday's NY high is intact.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,118.00, 4,126.92, 4,141.32
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4100 round number exposes the 4066.52 week low
Recovery above EMA(20) and the 4126.92 rebound high would break the lower-high trendline, with the 4141.32 weekly open next
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) on Thursday could materially shift this read
H1 has printed lower highs from Friday's post-payrolls 4227 spike to Tuesday's 4183.89 week high. Wednesday's steady slide, as yields and the USD pushed higher, broke the 4123–4125 Monday/Friday floor and swept the tue low into a 4066.52 week low at the NY open. The rebound stalled at 4126.92, near the 50% retracement of the Tuesday–Wednesday leg, where ema20 (~4120) and the broken floor converge. RSI(14) sits near 40, and the FOMC Minutes hour held a contained 4107–4120 range.
Support: 4,103.93, 4,066.52, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,120.30, 4,125.00, 4,141.32
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the broken floor near 4125 and ema20 neutralises the rejection and exposes the week open at 4141
Failure to hold the tue low at 4104 puts the 4066.52 week low back in play, with the 4000 round number below
A break of the lower highs trendline (~4175) would end the downtrend structure
Minutes digestion, then Thursday's Waller (08:30 UTC) and jobless claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 200K), could materially shift this read
Mon–Tue range broken lower; bounce capped at 50% fib.
Lower highs have stacked up since Friday's NFP spike to 4227.28 and Tuesday's 4183.89. Wednesday's slide began in the Asia session and accelerated in the first hour of NY to a 4066.52 week low, as long-end yields and the USD extended higher, breaking below the Mon–Tue range and the tuesday low. The rebound stalled at a 4126.92 bounce high near the 50% fib of that leg, leaving price below the ema20 and the weekly open with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 4,103.93, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,126.92, 4,141.32
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 4126.92 bounce high / 50% fib opens the weekly open at 4141.32
Failure to hold the tuesday low at 4103.93 puts the 4066.52 week low back in play
A break of the lower highs trendline would undercut the downtrend read
Lower highs from Tuesday's 4183.89 peak; bounce stalling under EMA(20).
Wednesday's selloff erased Tuesday's rebound to the 4183.89 week high. A roughly $58 bar at the London-NY transition printed the 4066.52 week low as Treasury yields and the USD extended, and the post-drop low at 4082.44 has held since. The recovery has stalled near the 38.2% retracement around 4111, below the H1 EMA(20) near 4123 and the weekly open at 4141.32, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s and price sitting just above Tuesday's low at 4103.93.
Support: 4,103.93, 4,082.44, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,123.00, 4,141.32, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back below the tuesday low at 4103.93 exposes the post-drop low at 4082.44 and the 4066.52 week low
Reclaim of the ema20 near 4123 and the 50% retracement at 4125 would break the lower-high sequence, with the weekly open at 4141.32 above
Thursday's Waller remarks and Initial Jobless Claims add follow-through risk
16:04 UTC
Downtrend, bounce stalling under broken range · RSI 36 · price 4,107.42
Lower highs since Friday; Mon–Tue 4104–4184 range broken lower, retesting floor.
Gold broke out of the 4104–4184 range that held Monday and Tuesday. The decline ran from the Asia session through London and accelerated into the NY open, printing a 4066.5 week low at 12:00 UTC as US yields and the dollar extended gains. The rebound has stalled at the old range floor near 4113, which coincides with the 38.2% of the tue-wed fib leg, while price holds below EMA(20) near 4124 and RSI(14) sits in the mid-30s. Lower highs since Friday's post-payrolls spike to 4227 keep the H1 downtrend structure intact.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,113.00, 4,124.00, 4,141.32
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 4113 range floor and EMA(20) near 4124 would mark a reclaim of the broken range, with the weekly open at 4141 above
Failure to hold the 4100 psych level exposes the 4066.5 week low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
A close above the lower highs trendline from 4227 would invalidate the downtrend read
Lower highs from 4183.89; flush below Tuesday low, rebound stalling at the broken level.
Gold has printed lower highs since Tuesday's 4183.89 NY-session peak. Wednesday's London-session slide extended into the first hour of NY, and a flush to the 4066.52 week low undercut the 4103.93 tue low as the USD and long-end yields firmed. The rebound has stalled back at that broken tue low, below EMA(20) near 4123, with RSI(14) recovering to ~31. The weekly open at 4141 lines up with the 61.8% retracement of this week's down-leg, and the lower-highs trendline caps the bounce overhead.
Support: 4,082.44, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,103.93, 4,123.00, 4,141.32
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 4104 tue low and the ema20 near 4123 (50% retracement zone) eases the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 4082 rebound low exposes the 4066.52 week low again
Reclaim of the 4141 weekly open breaks the lower-highs trendline sequence
Broke Tuesday's low, rebounding into it from below.
Lower highs run from Friday's post-payrolls spike at 4227 to Tuesday's NY-session high at 4184. Wednesday's steady slide through Asia and London then broke Tuesday's 4104 low into the NY open, printing a week low at 4066.5 as the USD and long-end yields firmed. Price has recovered to 4099, just under the broken low and the 23.6% retracement of the Tuesday-Wednesday drop, with EMA(20) near 4127 overhead and RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 4,066.52, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,103.93, 4,127.00, 4,141.32
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 4104 broken low, which sits near the 4111 38.2% retracement of the Tuesday-Wednesday drop, keeps the retest-from-below read intact
H1 close back above the broken low and EMA20 (~4127) would neutralise the range-break read
Weekly open at 4141 is the next level above EMA20; the lower-highs trendline from 4227 sits near 4176
A break of the 4066.5 week low extends the lower-low sequence and opens the 4000 round number
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
13:06 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into oversold · RSI 27 · price 4,091.90
Lower highs since Friday's 4227 spike; Tuesday low 4103.93 broken, new week low.
Wednesday's slide from Tuesday's 4183.89 NY-session high has run one-way through the Asia and London sessions under a falling line of Wednesday lower highs. Into the London-NY transition, the 12:00 UTC bar broke the tuesday low at 4103.93 and the $4,100 handle to a 4066.52 week low, as firmer yields and USD weighed ahead of the FOMC Minutes. Price sits well below the ema20 (~4129) and the 4141 weekly open with RSI(14) near 27, extending the lower highs since Friday's payrolls spike to 4227; the 50% retracement of the Tuesday high to week low move sits at ~4125, beside the ema20.
Support: 4,066.52, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,103.93, 4,129.00, 4,141.32
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read; the 10y yield near 5.34% remains the main driver
H1 close back above the tuesday low at 4103.93 would mark the $4,100 break as a false break
Failure to hold the 4066.52 week low exposes the 4000 round number
A rebound capped at the ema20 / 50% fib zone near 4125–4129 keeps the Wednesday lower-highs line intact; a reclaim of the 4141 weekly open would neutralise it
Waller (Thu 08:30 UTC) and Initial Jobless Claims (Thu 12:30 UTC) are the next scheduled risk
12:05 UTC
Downtrend, pressing the range low · RSI 41 · price 4,123.45
4104–4184 weekly range, lower highs since Friday's spike.
After a rejection at the 4,183.89 week high late Tuesday, gold has given back more than three-quarters of the Tuesday rally from the 4,103.93 week low, grinding lower through Wednesday's Asia and London sessions as the USD and Treasury yields resumed their advance ahead of the FOMC Minutes. Price trades below EMA(20) near 4,137 and the 4,141 weekly open with RSI(14) around 41, while lower highs since Friday's post-payrolls spike to 4,227 keep a descending cap over the week's range. Today's low at 4,109 sits just above the week low and the 4,100 psych handle.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4,103.93 week low and 4,100 psych handle breaks the weekly range floor
Recovery above EMA(20) and the 4,141 weekly open would return price to the middle of the Tuesday rally fib
Lower-highs trendline sits near the 4,183.89 week high; a close above it invalidates the lower-highs read
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with Waller and jobless claims due Thursday
4104–4184 weekly range, Wednesday lower highs pressing the range floor.
Gold has held a 4104–4184 range since Friday's payrolls spike to 4227 met rejection. Tuesday's London-to-NY rally from the 4104 week low stalled at the 4184 week high. Wednesday's slide from Asia through London has printed a run of lower highs, retraced more than 78.6% of that rally and pushed back below the 4141 weekly open and both EMAs, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s as the USD firms into the FOMC Minutes. Price now sits just above the 4109 session low, the 4104 week low and the 4100 psych level.
Support: 4,109.13, 4,103.93, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,134.50, 4,141.32, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 4104 week low and 4100 psych extends the lower-low sequence through the two-month floor
Reclaim of the 61.8% fib at 4134.5 and a break of the lower highs trendline would ease the intraday down-leg read
Close back above the 4141 weekly open returns price to mid-range
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (21:00 broker) could materially shift this read; jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC
Through Wednesday's Asia and London sessions, an unbroken run of lower highs from the Wed high at 4169.93 has unwound most of Tuesday's rally from 4103.93 to 4183.89. That leg was rejected at the week high. Price is now below the 78.6% retracement and back under the week open at 4141, with EMA(20) near 4140, while RSI(14) slides toward 34. The fade tracks a firmer USD and long-end yields back above 5.30%, leaving the week low at 4103.93 (the two-month low) and the 4100 round number as the floor of a 4104–4184 range that has held since Friday's NFP spike to 4227 reversed.
Support: 4,103.93, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,141.32, 4,169.93, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the week open at 4141 (EMA20 near 4140) breaks the lower highs sequence
Failure to hold the week low at 4103.93 and the 4100 round number ends the range read
Recovery through the Wed high at 4169.93 would return focus to the week high at 4183.89
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read; Waller and jobless claims follow Thursday
08:04 UTC
Range-bound, rolling over from week high · RSI 36 · price 4,131.91
4104–4184 weekly range; Tuesday rebound fully retraced, week high a lower high.
Gold is boxed between Tuesday's Asia-session 2-month low at 4103.93 and the 4183.89 week high. That high stands as a lower high under Friday's post-NFP spike to 4227, which was rejected within the NY session. Tuesday's London/NY rebound as yields eased has been unwound through Asia and early London today as the USD firmed. Price now trades back below the 61.8% fib of that rebound, under the weekly open at 4141 and EMA(20) near 4145, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s.
Support: 4,126.96, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,141.32, 4,145.00, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4127 session low leaves the 2-month low at 4104 as the next reference
Reclaim of the weekly open 4141 and EMA(20) ~4145 would neutralise today's slide back into mid-range
Close above the 4184 week high breaks the lower-highs sequence from the NFP spike
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~10h) and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
Lower high below Friday's NFP high; 4104–4184 range this week.
Friday's NFP high at 4227.28 reversed hard through the NY session, and this week has held a 4103.93–4184 range beneath it. Tuesday's rebound from the Asia-session week low stalled at the 4183.89 tuesday high, near the 61.8% retracement of the NFP high-to-week low drop, setting a lower high. Wednesday's Asia session erased that bounce on renewed USD and yield strength, leaving price below the weekly open at 4141.32 and EMA(20) near 4147, with RSI(14) sliding toward 38.
Support: 4,126.96, 4,103.93, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,141.32, 4,183.89, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 4126.96 session low exposes the 4103.93 week low and the 4100 psych level
Reclaim of the weekly open and EMA(20) around 4141–4147 returns price to mid-range
Close above the 4183.89 tuesday high breaks the lower-high sequence from Friday's NFP high
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via long-end yields and the USD
06:04 UTC
Lower highs within a broad weekly range, momentum fading · RSI 33 · price 4,129.24
4104–4184 range; Wednesday Asia selloff has erased most of Tuesday's rally.
Friday's NFP-driven spike to 4227 was rejected inside the same NY session, and Tuesday's rally from the Asia false break at the 4104 week low stalled at 4184, a second lower high on the lower-highs line as firming yields and a stronger USD capped gold. Wednesday's Asia session has printed eight straight lower highs back below the weekly open at 4141 and the H1 EMA(20) near 4148. Price now sits beyond the 61.8% retracement of the Tuesday rally, just above the Monday low at 4123, with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 4,123.30, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,141.32, 4,148.00, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4123 Monday low exposes the 4104 week low and the $4,100 area
Reclaim of the 4141 weekly open and the ema20 near 4148 would neutralise Wednesday's slide
Close above the 4184 week high breaks the lower-highs sequence
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
05:06 UTC
Range-bound, rolling over from a lower high · RSI 39 · price 4,134.95
Lower high at 4183.89 under Friday's 4227 spike; 4104–4184 weekly range.
Friday's NFP spike to 4227 fully reversed, and this week has traded a 4104–4184 range. Tuesday's rally off the 2-month low in Asia ran through London and NY as yields eased, but it stalled at the 4183.89 week high, a lower high on the descending line of lower highs from 4227. Wednesday's Asia session has given back the move as yields and the USD firmed again. Price is sitting on the 61.8% retracement of the Tuesday rally fib near 4134, below the weekly open and ema20, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,141.30, 4,152.00, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4123–4125 monday low cluster exposes the 2-month low at 4103.93
Reclaim of the weekly open at 4141 and ema20 near 4152 returns price to mid-range
Break above the 4184 week high and the lower highs line from 4227 invalidates the lower-high read
FOMC Minutes today 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
4104–4184 range under a lower-high line from Friday's NFP high.
Friday's spike to the 4227 NFP high reversed during NY hours as 10y yields climbed. Since then H1 has held a 4104–4184 range, with Tuesday's Asia dip below the Monday low to the 4104 week low snapping back into a London-NY rally to the 4184 week high as long-end yields eased. Wednesday's Asian session has given back half of Tuesday's rally, leaving price on the 50% retrace and the weekly open near 4141, below EMA(20) at ~4153, with RSI(14) back near 47.
Support: 4,141.32, 4,123.30, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,153.40, 4,183.89, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H1 close below the weekly open at 4141 and the 61.8% retrace near 4134 puts the Monday low at 4123 back in play
Failure to hold the 4104 week low breaks the range and confirms a lower-low
Reclaim of EMA(20) at 4153, then a close above the 4184 week high, would breach the lower-high line from the NFP high
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4227; Tuesday's leg off 4104 half retraced.
Friday's NFP miss spiked gold to the 4227 nfp high, but the move fully reversed to 4125 by the NY afternoon as long-end yields climbed. This week has held a 4104–4184 range: Tuesday's Asia session printed the 2-month low, and NY hours drove a recovery to the Tuesday high as yields and the USD eased. Wednesday's Asia session has given back about half of that leg. Price sits on the weekly open and the 50% retracement, below EMA(20), with RSI(14) rolling down to ~39.
Support: 4,141.32, 4,134.47, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,155.00, 4,183.89, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 61.8% fib at 4134 exposes the 2-month low at 4104
Reclaiming EMA20 near 4155 and then the Tuesday high at 4184 would break the lower-highs sequence from the 4227 nfp high
Holding the weekly open at 4141 keeps the 50% retracement intact
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via long-end yields
02:06 UTC
Range-bound, pulling back from week high · RSI 46 · price 4,146.42
Higher lows off Tuesday's 4103.9 low, testing 4143.6.
Gold has traded a 4104–4184 range since the NFP high at 4227.3 was rejected on Friday. Tuesday's London-led rally off the 4103.9 week low came as yields and the USD eased, but it stalled at the 4183.9 week high during NY hours. The Asian session today has slipped back below EMA(20) at 4155.7, with RSI(14) near 46, and price now sits on the 4143.6 higher low, the 50% retracement of Tuesday's leg, just above the 4141.3 week open.
Support: 4,143.60, 4,141.30, 4,103.90
Resistance: 4,155.70, 4,183.90, 4,227.30
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4143.6 higher low and the 4141.3 week open breaks Tuesday's higher-low sequence and exposes the 61.8% retracement at 4134.5
Failure to hold 4103.9 week low would mark a range break to the downside
Recovery above EMA20 at 4155.7 and the lower-high line from the NFP high would put the 4183.9 week high back in focus
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with Fed's Waller and Musalem on Thursday
Lower highs from 4227 NFP high; higher lows off 4104 since Tuesday.
Gold bounced from Tuesday's Asia-session two-month low at 4104 as yields eased, with London and the NY open driving the move to a 4184 week high, but the rally stalled under the lower-highs line from Friday's 4227 NFP high. Wednesday's Asian range has slipped back below EMA(20) near 4158 to the 38.2% fib of Tuesday's leg at 4153, with price sitting on EMA(50) and RSI(14) back at 50. Tuesday's NY higher low at 4143.6, aligned with the 50% retracement and just above the 4141 weekly open, is the next structural reference.
Support: 4,153.35, 4,143.61, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,157.70, 4,183.89, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4143.6 higher low breaks Tuesday's rebound structure and exposes the 4104 week low
H1 close above the 4184 week high and the lower-highs line opens 4200 and the 4227 nfp high
Repeated H1 closes back above the ema20 near 4158 would mark the 38.2% fib as a hold
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via long-end yields
Friday's spike to the 4227 nfp high on the soft 29K payrolls print met a hard rejection. The drop ran to a 2-month low at 4103.93 in Tuesday's Asia session as long-end yields climbed. Easing yields and a softer dollar drove the rebound through London and NY Tuesday, with a higher low at 4143.61 and a tuesday high at 4183.89 just above the 61.8% retracement of the week's decline. Price is holding the 50% level near 4165 above the H1 ema20, with RSI(14) in the mid-50s, inside a 4104–4184 range under the lower highs line from 4227.
Support: 4,143.61, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,183.89, 4,200.00, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read in either direction
H1 close above the 4183.89 tuesday high and the lower highs line opens the 4200 round number and the 4227 nfp high
Loss of the ema20 and the higher lows line through 4143.61 returns focus to the 2-month low at 4103.93
Break below 4103.93 would extend the post-NFP downswing to a fresh lower low
Waller Thu 08:30 UTC and jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC are follow-on risk