Lower highs from 4146.92 week high; post-NFP range 4027–4081.
The week's dominant leg ran through Asia hours on Wednesday and Thursday as the Democratic midterm sweep hit the dollar, lifting gold from Tuesday's 3895.50 low to the 4146.92 week high before a sequence of lower highs set in. Friday's blowout NFP spiked price to the 4027.52 nfp low, a false break of the Asian low between the 38.2% fib (4050.90) and 50% fib of the week impulse, and price has since ranged under a 4077–4081 range top, with the late NY push poking through the lower-highs line. Sunday's reopen at the 4061.50 weekly open has price pinned to the EMA(20)/EMA(50) cluster near 4063–4067, with RSI(14) at 51 reflecting neutral compression.
Support: 4,061.50, 4,050.90, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,081.20, 4,106.87, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4081.20 range top opens a test of the 4106.87 friday high, then the 4146.92 week high
Loss of the 4061.50 weekly open and the 38.2% fib at 4050.90 turns focus back to the 4027.52 nfp low
A break below the 4027.52 nfp low exposes the 50% fib near 4021 and confirms a deeper correction of the week impulse
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%), plus Fed speakers Mon and Waller Tue 09:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Thursday's week high; Friday range 4027–4081.
Gold climbed from Tuesday's 3896.30 London low to a 4146.92 week high in Thursday's Asia session as the post-midterm USD slide played out, then printed lower highs at 4128, 4106.87 (fri high) and 4081.20. Friday's 165K NFP beat sent price briefly under the Asia low to 4027.52 (nfp low), near the 50% retracement of the week's impulse. NY hours then reclaimed EMA(20) near 4067 and broke the lower-high line, but 4078–4081 capped the recovery with RSI(14) flat near 48.
Support: 4,067.00, 4,027.52, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,081.20, 4,106.87, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
H1 close above 4081.20 (lower high) ends the sequence of lower highs and opens 4106.87 (fri high), then the 4146.92 week high
Failure to hold EMA(20) near 4067 returns price to the Friday range floor
A break of the 4027.52 nfp low exposes the 50% fib near 4021 and the 4000 round number
Fed speakers Mon, Waller Tue 09:00 UTC and US CPI Tue Nov 10 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
20:21 UTC
Weekly uptrend, correcting since Thursday's high · RSI 56 · price 4,071.51
Post-impulse flag, lower highs since Thursday.
Gold's midterm-driven impulse ran from Tuesday's 3895.50 low to Thursday's 4146.92 week high. It has since corrected in a flag of lower highs, with Friday's high at 4106.87 and the 4081.20 lower high from London both capping. The blowout NFP print dragged price to a 4027.52 nfp low just above the 50% retracement, but the dip below Friday's Asian low was reclaimed into the NY close, leaving price back above EMA(20) near 4060, just under EMA(50) around 4080, and RSI(14) recovered to the mid-50s.
Support: 4,060.00, 4,027.52, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,081.20, 4,106.87, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4081.20 lower high and the flag trendline breaks the corrective sequence and puts the 4106.87 fri high back in focus
Failure to hold the 4027.52 nfp low exposes the 50% retracement near 4021 and the 4000 round number
Repeated H1 closes back below the ema20 near 4060 would mark the post-NFP rebound fading
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM), with Waller at 09:00 UTC the same day, could materially shift this read
19:27 UTC
Uptrend on the week, correcting from 4147 · RSI 54 · price 4,071.51
The week's impulse ran from Tuesday's 3896 low to the 4146.92 week high in Thursday's Asia session as the midterm result sank USD. Since then, gold has printed a sequence of lower highs (4128, 4106.87, 4081.2), and the blowout NFP drove a drop to the 4027.52 nfp low. That low sits between the fib 38.2 at 4051 and the 50% at 4021.6, and it held the rising support line from Wednesday's low. A recovery into the NY session left price closing the week at 4071.5, just above EMA(20) near 4068 and EMA(50) near 4065, with RSI(14) around 54 and the Friday high at 4081 capping the bounce.
Support: 4,051.18, 4,027.52, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,081.20, 4,106.87, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue Nov 10 13:30 UTC, with Waller at 09:00 UTC the same day, could materially shift this read.
An H1 close above the 4081 friday high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 4106.87 lower high back in focus, ahead of the 4146.92 week high.
Failure to hold the 4027.52 nfp low and the rising support line opens the 50% retracement at 4021.6 and the 4000 round number.
Price slipping back below the fib 38.2 at 4051 and EMA(20) would turn Friday's bounce into a lower high inside the correction.