19:04 UTC
Macro uptrend stalled, correcting lower · RSI 43 · price 4,216.20
Lower highs off the Q1 top, testing the 4000 base.
The macro rally from the late-2024 base near 2580 topped close to 5600 in Q1 2026; since then price has unwound roughly 28% and is now probing the 4000-4023 YTD-low region, with the latest bar wicking to 4023 before closing back at 4216. Price sits below both the W1 EMA20 and EMA50 and is hovering around the 50% retracement (~4090) of the entire two-year advance, marking a shift from trend to reversion. Sticky 4.2% US CPI and a higher-for-longer Fed have capped recovery attempts as inflation-hedge and ETF demand fade.
Support: 4,023.00, 4,000.00, 4,090.00
Resistance: 4,550.00
What it said to watch
- A weekly close below 4023/4000 opens fresh downside below the base
- Reclaiming 4550 is needed to challenge the lower-high structure
- FOMC dot plot Jun 17 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read