20:03 UTC
Downtrend since the Q1 2026 peak, lower highs intact · RSI 38 · price 3,874.85
Lower highs from 5598 through 4697 to 4148; fresh yearly low at 3852.
Gold has been in a downtrend since the late-January 2026 peak at 5598, with each recovery capped at a lower high (5419, 4889, 4697) and the latest weekly rebound rejected at the 4148 weekly cap, which also sits on the 61.8% retracement of the 2025-26 rally. Price is below a now-declining W1 EMA(50) at 4208.25 and has printed a fresh yearly low at 3852.5, as hawkish Fed repricing, 5% 10y yields and a 19-month-high dollar followed hot payrolls and CPI. RSI at 38.1 is mid-range, so the slide is not stretched on this timeframe, and the next structural reference below is the 2025 pivot near 3763, close to the 78.6% retracement.
Support: 3,852.50, 3,763.44
Resistance: 4,208.25, 4,696.74
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the 3852.5 yearly low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 2025 pivot at 3763 and the 78.6% retracement
- Weekly close back above the 4148 weekly cap and the ema50 at 4208 would challenge the lower-high structure
- Only a break above the 4697 lower high, or the lower-high trendline, would end the downtrend read
- Fed Chair Warsh (Mon 17:00 UTC) and US Retail Sales (Tue 13:30 UTC) could shift the weekly close materially
- US 10y yield holding above 5% keeps the macro backdrop for the downtrend in place