Gold gapped higher into the new week after basing above 4170 and recovering from the 4023 six-month low, with a soft USD and Iran de-escalation underpinning the bounce. The opening bar tagged a session high at 4309 before settling near 4285, retracing roughly three-quarters of the prior week's ~$400 selloff. Price now sits above both EMA(20) and EMA(50), but the broader structure off the 4363 area remains a downtrend with this leg corrective.
Support: 4,218.00, 4,170.00, 4,023.00
Resistance: 4,309.00
What it said to watch
FOMC rate projections and Retail Sales on Jun 17 are the dominant catalysts and could reset this read
An H1 close back below 4218 would fade the gap and reassert the prior range
Acceptance above the 4309 session high opens the path toward the 4363 region
Gold collapsed roughly $400 this week to a six-month low near 4023 on sticky inflation and Fed-hike bets, then based and recovered through Friday's NY session. The new week opened with a gap higher to 4285 as Iran de-escalation sapped the USD safe-haven bid, leaving price above both EMAs with RSI(14) lifting into the low 60s. The 4309 session high and prior 4340 supply zone now cap the rebound.
Support: 4,218.00, 4,023.00
Resistance: 4,309.00, 4,340.00
What it said to watch
A close back below 4218 fills the weekend gap and reopens the downside
Jun 17 Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and FOMC dot plot (18:00 UTC) are the dominant catalysts for this read
Acceptance above 4309 opens the path back toward the 4340 prior high
Gold bounced off the $4,023 six-month low after a brutal ~$400 weekly slide, recovering to $4,218 on the back of softer US data and Iran de-escalation. The advance has been built on higher lows but is now stalling into the 61.8% retracement of the down-move near $4,219, with the $4,246 bounce high capping progress. RSI(14) sits mid-range and price holds above H1 EMA(20) since the recovery began.
Support: 4,180.00, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,246.00, 4,250.00
What it said to watch
Close above 4246 bounce high opens path toward 4250 psych
Failure to hold 4180 swing low exposes 4150 then 4023 week low
Retail Sales and FOMC projections Jun 17 could materially shift this read
Gold cratered roughly $340 from Monday's 4363 high to a 4023 six-month low as in-line CPI and a hot PPI kept Fed-hike bets alive, then staged a corrective bounce now stalling near 4220. Price has reclaimed and is holding above EMA20 with RSI(14) cycling mid-range, while the 4246 bounce high has capped the recovery twice. The week's sequence of lower highs still frames the broader picture.
Support: 4,177.00, 4,023.00
Resistance: 4,246.00, 4,300.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above 4246 would extend the recovery toward the 4300 round number
Loss of 4177 reopens the path back to the 4023 week low
FOMC rate projections Jun 17 18:00 UTC are the dominant catalyst and could reset this read
Gold cratered roughly $400 from Monday's $4,340 open to a six-month low near 4,023 as in-line CPI and hot PPI kept Fed-hike bets alive, then staged an oversold bounce back above EMA(20). Price is now consolidating 4,185–4,235 around the 61.8% retrace of that selloff, with supply at 4,235 capping and the week high at 4,250 above. The recovery has lifted price over EMA(20) and EMA(50), but RSI cycling mid-50s shows momentum flattening into the consolidation.
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close above 4,235 supply opens the path back toward the 4,250 week high
Loss of 4,185 swing low reopens the 4,131 prior low and 4,023 week low
Retail Sales (Jun 17, 12:30 UTC) and FOMC dot plot (18:00 UTC) are the dominant catalysts and could materially shift this read
Recovery off six-month low, consolidating below week's open.
Gold shed roughly $400 this week from Monday's 4340 open to a six-month low at 4023 as in-line CPI and a hot PPI kept Fed-hike bets alive. A late-week relief bid, helped by a softer USD on Iran de-escalation, has lifted price back above EMA(20) and EMA(50), now consolidating in a 4170–4246 band. RSI(14) is back to mid-range near 55 after basing at oversold during the slide.
Support: 4,170.00, 4,124.00, 4,023.00
Resistance: 4,246.00, 4,340.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below 4170 reopens the path toward the 4124 prior low and 4023 week low
Reclaim and hold above 4246 swing high extends the corrective bounce toward weekly open at 4340
Retail Sales (Jun 17 12:30 UTC) and FOMC dot plot (Jun 17 18:00 UTC) are the dominant catalysts and can override this structure