Lower high at 4219 under the 4275 open; rising lows broken.
Monday's NY-session sell-off took gold from the 4,271 weekly open to a 4,110.84 week low. Tuesday's rebound built rising lows into the 4,185 Tue high. Wednesday's soft Core PCE spike to the 4,219 PCE high, just past the 61.8% retrace of Monday's leg, was rejected on the next bar as strong GDP and Chicago PMI prints lifted yields; price slipped back below 4,200 and through the rising lows line, and now sits at 4,154 under EMA(20) near 4,165 and EMA(50) near 4,175, with RSI(14) at 43 and Monday's lower highs intact.
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 4,147 session low and the 4,142 swing low exposes the 4,110.84 week low
Reclaiming ema20 near 4,165 and the 4,185 Tue high would neutralise the post-PCE rejection
Acceptance back above the 4,219 PCE high breaks the lower highs line from Monday's open
Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC Thursday, could materially shift this read via yields
Lower high at 4219 after Monday's drop; higher low held at 4147.
Monday's selloff ran from the 4275 weekly open area through London into NY to a 4110.84 week low, and Tuesday's NY-led rebound built a higher low at 4113. Wednesday's soft Core PCE print spiked gold to a PCE high at 4219, just past the 61.8% of the Monday drop, but rising long-end yields drove a false break of the 4200 psych level and a full rejection back to the 4150s. Price sits at 4159, below EMA(20) near 4167 and EMA(50) near 4173, just above the Wed low at 4147.45 and the higher-lows line, with RSI(14) back to 46 from about 70 at the spike.
Support: 4,147.45, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,167.00, 4,200.00, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4147.45 Wed low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 4110.84 week low
Acceptance back above the 4167 ema20 and the 38.2% fib near 4174 would ease pressure on the lower-highs structure
Reclaiming 4200 psych and the 4219 PCE high would break the lower-highs line from the weekly open
Kashkari tonight and ISM Manufacturing/Waller at 14:00 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read via yields
Lower high at 4219 inside a 4110–4220 range after Monday's impulse down.
Monday's slide from the 4275 open ran from the Asia session into NY and bottomed at the 4110.84 week low. Tuesday's retest near 4113 held, and the rebound stalled at the 4185 tuesday high. The soft Core PCE print drove a spike to 4219.26 during NY hours today, just above the 61.8% of Monday's drop. That pce high was a false break of 4200 and was rejected as long-end yields climbed. Price has since slipped under EMA(20) near 4170 to the 4147 ny low, with RSI(14) back near 39.
Support: 4,147.45, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,170.00, 4,185.22, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4147 ny low exposes the 4110.84 week low
Reclaim of ema20 near 4170 and then the 4185 tuesday high needed to neutralise the lower-high read
Acceptance above the 4219 pce high breaks the lower-highs trendline from Monday
Kashkari 22:00 UTC tonight and ISM Manufacturing / Waller at 14:00 UTC Thu could materially shift this read via yields
Lower high at 4219 below Monday drop origin; rising line broken.
Monday's drop from the 4271 weekly open to the 4110.84 week low set the week's direction, running from the Asia session through London into NY. The Tuesday-Wednesday recovery tracked a rising line off the 4113 retest and pushed through 4200 psych to the 4219 Wednesday high, close to the 61.8% fib of the Monday drop, on the soft core PCE print. That move was fully rejected in the first hours of NY as beats in ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI lifted long-end yields; price now sits below EMA(20) near 4167 with RSI(14) around 44, just above the Wednesday low at 4147 and the Tuesday low at 4142.
Support: 4,147.45, 4,142.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,167.30, 4,200.00, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
H1 close back above EMA(20) near 4167 and the 38.2% fib at 4174 would undo the post-PCE rejection read
Failure to hold the Wednesday low at 4147 and Tuesday low at 4142 exposes the 4110.84 week low
Acceptance above 4200 psych and the 4219 Wednesday high would negate the false break
Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight, then ISM Manufacturing Thu 14:00 UTC (f/c 55, Prices Paid 72.3), could materially shift this read
Lower high at 4219 after PCE spike; recovery higher-low sequence broken.
Monday's Asia-to-NY-open slide from the weekly open near 4271 to the 4110.84 week low set the tone, and the Tuesday–Wednesday recovery stalled once the soft core PCE spiked price to a 4219 pce high, just through the 61.8% level of the Monday drop fib. The 4200 psych level failed to hold during NY hours as strong GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI prints lifted long-end yields and the USD, printing a lower high versus the week open. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 4172, has broken the recovery trendline and the 4165 higher low, and is pressing the day low at 4147 with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 4,147.45, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,172.00, 4,200.00, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4147 day low exposes the 4110.84 week low, where demand stepped in on both Monday and Tuesday
Reclaiming EMA(20) near 4172 and then the 4200 psych level would neutralise the lower-high read; the 4219 pce high marks the top of this week's bounce
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight, then Thursday's ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
US 30y yield holding above 5.64% has tracked the rejection from 4200
Lower high at 4219 after higher-low recovery; rising line broken.
Monday's slide from the 4271 weekly open to the 4110.84 week low set the tone, and Tuesday's higher-low recovery carried into Wednesday's soft PCE print, which spiked price to the 4219 PCE high near the 50% retracement of the Monday drop fib. The push above the 4200 round number failed within the hour as the ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats restored the USD bid. NY hours have since erased Wednesday's gains, breaking the rising higher-low line and leaving price below EMA20 (~4170) and EMA50 (~4178), with RSI(14) near 41 and the Wed low at 4147.6 being tested.
Support: 4,147.60, 4,142.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 4170 ema20 and the broken higher-low line would undo the rejection read
Failure to hold the 4142 Tue pullback low exposes the 4110.84 week low
Acceptance back above the 4200 round number and the 4219 PCE high would neutralise the false break
Fedspeak tonight (Cook, Goolsbee, Kashkari) and Thu ISM Manufacturing 14:00 UTC (prices paid vs 72.3) could materially shift this read
Tue–Wed higher-low sequence broken after PCE spike rejected.
Monday's slide from the 4275 open to the 4110.84 week low set the tone. The Tuesday–Wednesday rebound built higher lows along a rising higher-low line until the soft core PCE print spiked price to the 4219.26 PCE high, just past the 61.8% retrace of Monday's drop. Beats in GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI turned that into a false break of 4200: three NY-session bars erased the rebound, broke the higher-low line and pushed price back under the converged EMA20/EMA50 near 4175. Price now sits on the 4151.40 session low with RSI(14) near 41, and Tuesday's 4142.31 swing low is the next reference below.
Support: 4,151.40, 4,142.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,175.00, 4,200.00, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 4142.31 swing low exposes the 4110.84 week low and a full retrace of the rebound
Recovery back above the ema20 near 4175 would put 4200 psych and the 4219 PCE high back in focus
Fedspeak tonight (Cook 19:25, Goolsbee 20:05, Kashkari 22:00 UTC) and Thursday's ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
16:05 UTC
Corrective bounce within a downtrend, rolling over · RSI 41 · price 4,157.41
Monday's London-to-NY liquidation took price from the 4,275 area to the 4,110.84 weekly low and set the week's tone. The Tuesday–Wednesday recovery then climbed a rising trendline of higher lows into the 4,200 round number. The core PCE miss spiked price to a 4,219.26 pce high, just above the 50% fib of the 4,315–4,110 drop. Strong GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats saw that spike rejected through the NY session, breaking the trendline and the 4,165.77 prior low. Price now sits below EMA(20) and just under EMA(50), with RSI(14) back near 41; the NY session low at 4,151.40 is the first test, then Tuesday's 4,142.31 swing low.
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 4,165.77 prior low and broken rising trendline would soften the rejection read
Acceptance above the 4,200 round number and the 4,219.26 pce high negates the false break
Failure to hold the 4,142.31 swing low exposes the 4,110.84 weekly low
Fedspeak tonight (Cook, Goolsbee, Kashkari) and Thu ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Surging US yields drove the week's open into a ~$165 slide from 4275 to the 4110.84 week low by Monday's NY session. Price has since built a sequence of higher lows back to the 38.2% retrace of Monday's slide, with the latest swing low at 4165.77. The soft core PCE print spiked gold through psych 4200 to the 4219.26 pce high, just past the 61.8% level, but the bar reversed fully within the hour. That leaves a false break, with price back under ema20 (~4183) and EMA(50), RSI(14) cooled to ~50, and price retesting the rising higher-low line from Tuesday.
Support: 4,165.77, 4,142.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,183.00, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
H1 acceptance back above psych 4200 and the 4219 pce high would neutralise the PCE rejection and open Monday's 4271 week open
A close below the 4165.77 swing low breaks the higher-low line; the 4142 higher low from Tuesday is the next reference
Loss of the 4110.84 week low would resume Monday's downtrend structure
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight, plus Thursday's ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 4110 double bottom, NY break above 4200.
Monday's slide from the 4271 weekly open started in Asia and bottomed at 4110.84 in NY hours. Tuesday's retest at 4113 held, forming a double bottom, and a string of higher lows has followed since. Wednesday's London session was capped at 4202, then the soft core PCE print (3.0% y/y vs 3.3%) drove a NY-session break through the pre-pce high to the 4219 pce high, stalling at the 50% fib of the 4315–4110 drop. RSI(14) is near 67, and price sits above EMA(20) at about 4188 and above EMA(50).
Support: 4,202.29, 4,188.00, 4,165.77
Resistance: 4,219.26, 4,237.40, 4,271.17
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the pre-pce high at 4202 would mark the post-data move as a false break
Acceptance above the 4219 pce high opens the 61.8% fib at 4237, with the 4271 weekly open next above
A break of the higher-low trendline and the 4166 wed low would undercut the rebound structure; ema20 near 4188 is the first pullback reference
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC, Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight, and Thursday's ISM (f/c 55, prices paid 72.3) could materially shift this read
Monday's slide from the 4271 weekly open into the NY open set the 4110.84 week low, driven by 10y yields at 5.27% and a firm USD. Since Tuesday's Asia session H1 has printed a run of higher lows as oil eased and Williams cooled October hike pricing. The recovery stalled at the 4202 wed high in London this morning, just above the 50% fib of Monday's drop, and price is now rotating around ema20 with RSI(14) near 55.
Support: 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,202.29, 4,212.40, 4,271.17
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC land within the hour and could materially shift this read
An H1 close above the 4202 wed high and the 61.8% fib at 4212 opens the path toward the 4271 weekly open
A break of the higher-lows trendline and the 4165 wed low would expose the 4110 week low
Higher lows off the 4110.84 week low, capped just above 4200.
Gold gave up Monday's 4271 weekly open in a ~160-point slide that began in Asia, extended through London and bottomed at the 4110.84 week low in the NY session as US 10y yields spiked to 5.27%. Since then a rising higher-low trendline (4113, 4142, 4166) has tracked the rebound as oil and yields eased and Williams struck a softer tone. Today's London push set a day high at 4202, just above the 50% retracement of Monday's decline, before a rejection pulled price back toward a flattening EMA(20) near 4176, with RSI(14) at 57 off a 63 peak.
Support: 4,176.00, 4,165.77, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,202.29, 4,212.40, 4,271.17
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC, about 1h out, could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 4202 day high and the 61.8% fib at 4212 opens the path toward the 4271 weekly open
Break of the ema20 and higher-low trendline near 4175, then the 4166 asia low, ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 4110.84 week low
A renewed spike in US 10y yields toward 5.27% would test the recovery structure
10:34 UTC
Corrective recovery within a weekly downtrend · RSI 58 · price 4,188.13
Higher lows off Monday's 4110.84 low, highs capped at the 4200 psych area.
Gold fell from the 4271 weekly open to a 4110.84 week low on Monday. The sell-off started in the Asia session and bottomed at the NY open on the yield-driven USD bid. Since Tuesday it has retraced into the 38.2–50% fib zone of that drop, printing higher lows along a rising trendline, while Williams' softer tone and cooler oil eased pressure. Two London-session probes of the 4200 psych area stalled at 4201–4202 and faded toward the ema20 near 4181, with RSI(14) cooling from the low 60s to about 58 into ADP and Core PCE.
Support: 4,181.00, 4,165.77, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,202.29, 4,212.40, 4,271.17
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE (f/c 3.3%) at 12:30 UTC could break the 4175–4200 compression either way
H1 close above the 4200 psych area opens the 61.8% fib at 4212 and then the gap back toward the weekly open at 4271
Break of the rising trendline and the 4165.77 swing low undoes the higher-low sequence and exposes the 4110.84 week low
Repeated rejection at 4200 with price losing the ema20 keeps the recovery a shallow retracement of Monday's drop
Higher lows off the week low; stalling under the 4200 break level.
Monday's selling ran from the 4271 weekly open through Asia, London and into the NY open, bottoming at the 4110.84 week low. Since Tuesday, as WTI slipped below $90, price has printed higher lows at 4113, 4142 and today's 4165.77 Asian low, and it is now holding above EMA(20) near 4175. The early London push today tagged the 4200 break level, which is also the 50% retracement of Monday's drop, and the bounce has stalled there for three bars with RSI(14) near 63, short of overbought.
Support: 4,185.20, 4,165.80, 4,110.80
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,231.00, 4,271.20
What it said to watch
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read in either direction
An H1 close above the 4200 break level opens the path to the 4231 breakdown shelf from Monday, then the 4271 weekly open
A slip back below the 4185 Tuesday high and the higher-lows trendline near 4173 would put the 4165.8 Asian low back in play
A close below 4165.8 ends the higher-low sequence and re-exposes the 4110.8 week low
Higher lows since Monday's 4110.84 low, testing the 4200 break level from below.
The week opened on a gap lower at the 4271 weekly open and slid through Asia and London on Monday, as the 10y yield hit 5.27%. It bottomed at the 4110.84 weekly low in the first hour of NY. A double bottom at 4111–4113 has since produced a run of higher lows, helped by Tuesday's oil drop and the JOLTS miss, and price now holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 64. London's open lifted gold to a 4201.34 day high at the 4200 break level, just above the 38.2% retracement of the 4315–4110 decline.
Support: 4,165.77, 4,142.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,201.34, 4,213.25, 4,271.17
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4201 day high and the 50% fib at 4213 would extend the recovery toward the 4271 weekly open
Break of the higher-low trendline and the 4165.77 asia low would put the 4142 swing low back in play
Failure at the 4142 swing low exposes the 4110.84 weekly low and the double-bottom base
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Tuesday Asia, pressing 50% retrace below 4200.
Monday's slide from the 4275 open ran through London and bottomed at the 4110.84 week low in the NY session. Since Tuesday's Asia session the recovery, helped by WTI slipping below $90, has built higher lows at 4113, the 4142.31 higher low and today's 4165.77 session low along a higher-low trendline. Price has reclaimed EMA(20) near 4172 and edged above EMA(50) near 4176. It now presses the 50% retrace of Monday's drop around 4193 with RSI(14) near 61, just under the 4200 break level after a 4195.04 session high.
Support: 4,165.77, 4,142.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,195.04, 4,200.00, 4,212.39
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4200 break level and the 61.8% fib at 4212 would extend the recovery into Monday's breakdown zone
Rejection at the session high and a break of the 4165.77 session low and higher-low trendline would expose the 4142.31 higher low
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the 4110.84 week low back in focus
RSI(14) failing to clear the mid-60s on a push through the session high would mark fading momentum at resistance
Monday's slide from the 4275 weekly-open high ran through London and into the NY open to a 4110.84 week low as the US 10y hit 5.27%. Two retests of that low held, and Tuesday's rebound on softer oil and a JOLTS miss completed a double bottom. Price has reclaimed EMA(20) near 4169 and sits at EMA(50) around 4176, just above the 38.2% fib of Monday's slide. The Asian range is capped at the 4187.59 bounce high, while the 4165.77 Asia low sits on the higher-low trendline. RSI(14) has cooled from ~60 to 56, and the 4200 break level has not been tested.
Support: 4,165.77, 4,142.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,187.59, 4,200.00, 4,212.39
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 4200 break level opens the 61.8% fib at 4212
Loss of the 4165.77 Asia low and the higher-low trendline exposes Tuesday's 4142.31 higher low
Break below the 4110.84 week low negates the double bottom and resumes the downtrend
Higher lows off the 4110 week low; Asia range capped below 4188.
Gold gapped below the 4271 weekly open and fell to the 4110.84 week low during Monday's NY hours as the US 10y yield hit 5.27%. The low was retested at 4113 in Tuesday's Asia session before a recovery as WTI slipped under $90 and yields eased, forming a sequence of higher lows up to 4142. The bounce has stalled in a tight Asia range (4167–4188), with the asia high sitting just under the 38.2% fib of the Fri-Mon drop (~4189) and price holding above EMA(20) near 4167 and EMA(50) near 4174.
Support: 4,167.36, 4,142.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,187.59, 4,200.00, 4,271.17
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 4200 round number extends the bounce past the 38.2% fib and opens the 50% level near 4213
Break of the asia low at 4167 and the higher-lows trendline puts the 4142 higher low back in play
Loss of 4142 ends the higher-low sequence and re-exposes the 4110 week low
Weekly open at 4271 marks the top of Monday's gap-down move
Monday's flush from the 4271 weekly open ran through London and NY to a monday low at 4110.84 as long-end yields and oil drove hike pricing. Tuesday printed a sequence of higher lows off that base. A late-NY leg as WTI slipped below $90 then carried price to the bounce high near 4185–4188. The Asia session has since compressed between the asia low at 4167 and that high. Price is sitting on the 38.2% retracement of the Monday flush fib (~4174), just above EMA(20) near 4166 and pinned to EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 57 and off Monday's oversold readings.
Support: 4,167.36, 4,142.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,187.59, 4,200.00, 4,212.39
What it said to watch
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE/GDP (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; hot prints put the monday low at 4110.84 back in focus
H1 close above the 4200 breakdown level, and then the fib 61.8 at 4212, would challenge the corrective-bounce read
Loss of the asia low at 4167 and the higher-low line (~4162) exposes the 4142 swing low
Repeated failure at the 4187–4188 bounce high would mark a lower high below 4200
Higher lows off the 4,110.84 week low, capped below the 4,200 breakdown.
Monday's slide ran from Asia into NY hours. It took gold from the 4,271 weekly open to a 4,110.84 week low as long-end yields spiked. Tuesday's bounce, extended late in the NY session as oil eased, has retraced just past the 38.2% fib of that drop. Price is holding a run of higher lows and sits above EMA20 near 4,166 and EMA50 near 4,174, with RSI(14) around 60. The Asian range is stalling under the 4,187.59 Asian high, short of the 4,200 breakdown level.
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 4,200 breakdown level and the 61.8% fib at 4,212 would challenge the corrective-bounce read
Continued rejection below the 4,187.59 Asian high keeps price compressed in the Asian range
Loss of EMA20 and the higher-lows trendline near 4,166 exposes the 4,142 NY swing low
A break of the 4,110.84 week low would confirm downtrend continuation
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC today (f/c 3.3% y/y) could materially shift this read
Higher-low bounce retracing Monday's impulse, stalling near the 38.2% fib.
Monday's gap-down open near 4271 ran through Asia and London, then flushed to the 4110.84 Monday low at the NY open as long-end yields and October hike pricing weighed. Tuesday rebuilt a higher low sequence along a rising line, and the late-NY push to 4185 came as WTI slipped below $90. Price now sits at the 38.2% fib of Monday's drop, on EMA(50) near 4174 and above EMA(20) near 4164, while RSI(14) has cooled to ~55 from ~62 at the 4187.59 Asia high.
Support: 4,142.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,187.59, 4,200.00, 4,212.39
What it said to watch
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 4200 round number, clearing the 50% fib at 4193, puts the 61.8% fib at 4212 in view
Loss of EMA(20) near 4164 would put the higher-low line under pressure
Break below the 4142.31 higher low and the higher-low line reopens the Monday low at 4110.84
Monday's 4275–4111 drop began in the Asia session and was completed in the first hours of NY as the 10Y hit 5.27%, leaving the 4271 weekly open well overhead. Tuesday's recovery, helped by WTI slipping below $90, has built a higher-low sequence at 4113, 4122 and 4142, and the late-NY push through the 4175 prior highs lifted price above EMA(20) near 4162 and just above EMA(50). The bounce now sits between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the Monday drop. It has been capped at the 4187.6 bounce high during Asia, with the 4175 prior highs being retested and RSI(14) near 61, short of overbought.
Support: 4,175.00, 4,142.30, 4,110.80
Resistance: 4,187.60, 4,200.00, 4,212.40
What it said to watch
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
An H1 close above the 4200 breakdown level and the 4193 50% retracement shifts the bounce from corrective toward a test of the 61.8% fib at 4212
Failure to hold the 4175 prior highs on the retest puts the higher-low line back in focus
A break of the 4142.3 higher low ends the Tuesday sequence and reopens the 4110.8 week low
Higher lows since Tuesday Asia, capped below Monday's 50% retrace.
Monday's gap-down open ran into a 165-dollar flush from the 4275 week-open high to a 4110.84 week low during NY hours, and later tests at 4111–4113 held to form a double bottom. Tuesday's recovery came as WTI slipped below $90 and JOLTS missed. It built higher lows through London and NY: the NY pullback to the 4142 higher low held near EMA(20), and price then reclaimed EMA(50) around the 38.2% fib at 4174. RSI(14) near 62 has cycled up from oversold, but the bounce still sits below the 50% fib at 4193, the 4200 breakdown level and the 61.8% fib at 4212.
Support: 4,174.00, 4,142.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,193.00, 4,200.00, 4,212.40
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 50% fib near 4193 would keep the bounce at the midpoint of Monday's drop
H1 close above the 4200 breakdown level and the 61.8% fib at 4212 would shift the read beyond a corrective bounce
Loss of the 4142 higher low breaks the Tuesday trendline and reopens the 4111 week low
H1 close back below EMA(50)/38.2% at 4174 would flag the bounce stalling
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC, f/c 3.3%) on Wednesday could materially shift this read