19:06 UTC
Corrective downtrend from January record high · RSI 37 · price 3,962.88
Lower highs pressing on the 3940–3960 base.
Gold has been in a corrective regime since the January record at 5598, with weekly highs stepping lower at 5419, 4889 and 4697. Price is now retesting the 2026 low at 3942 from beneath the 61.8% fib of the 2025 rally (4067), and the 4000 round number has turned overhead. Price trades below the W1 EMA(50) near 4199, which it reclaimed only briefly in August, so the macro filter now reads reversion rather than trend. The digest describes the latest leg as liquidation-driven, with gold falling alongside the tech/AI equity rout even as December hike odds eased. RSI near 37 sits short of an oversold extreme.
Support: 3,886.48, 3,650.90
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,067.12, 4,199.00
What it said to watch
- A weekly close below the 2026 low at 3942 extends the lower-low sequence toward the oct 25 low at 3886, with the 78.6% fib near 3651 below that
- Reclaiming the 4000 round number and the 61.8% fib at 4067 would be the first structural sign that liquidation is exhausting
- A weekly close back above the ema50 (~4199) and the lower-high trendline would undo the reversion read
- ISM Manufacturing on Monday, the US midterms on Tuesday and ADP on Wednesday could materially shift this read; weekend gap risk follows a close at the lows