AI Market Pulse, Monday, 2 November 2026

The AI’s last read of the day on each major currency, gold, silver, oil and bitcoin.

• USD

  USD on the back foot (DXY ~101.72, back below 102) as oil slides on US-Iran peace hopes and yields ease; strong ISM ignored. Midterms are the immediate binary.

  The dollar slipped about 0.24% to DXY 101.72 despite an ISM Manufacturing beat (55.5 vs 54.6).

• EUR

  EUR bouncing off ~18-month lows near 1.1100 on lower oil and hawkish ECB talk (Kažimír), but France/Fitch keeps 1.1200–1.1250 capping ahead of Wed HICP (f/c 4.0%).

  EUR/USD rose about 0.37% to around 1.1200 and briefly hit a one-week high of 1.1237.

• GBP

  GBP firm near 6-week highs (~1.3420s) into Thursday's BoE; 25bp hike to 4% fully priced, so the vote split and guidance on a February follow-up decide the next leg.

  GBP/USD rose about 0.26% to 1.3423 after a six-week high of 1.3448, then stalled just below 1.3450.

• JPY

  JPY soft and range-bound despite a hawkish BoJ hold; USD/JPY pinned between 157.00 and 158.00. Intervention talk caps the downside while unclear December hike timing caps the upside.

  The yen underperformed most majors on Monday as BoJ timing uncertainty outweighed hawkish signals.

• CHF

  CHF firm vs a soft USD, with USD/CHF near 0.8220 after failing at 0.8313. SNB-hold carry drag and oil exposure cap gains into Swiss CPI (f/c 1.3% y/y).

  USD/CHF slipped back to ~0.8220 as the dollar fell on easing Middle East tensions.

• AUD

  AUD heavy near 0.7010 into RBA: a 25bp hike to 4.85% is largely priced, so the guidance decides direction. Dovish-hike or pause risk outweighs upside, but shorts are crowded.

  AUD was among the weakest majors Monday, slipping from ~0.7035 to ~0.7010 as traders cut exposure before the RBA.

• CAD

  CAD holding near Sept-16 highs vs a soft USD, but rate support is largely priced. Falling oil, 0% GDP and a sub-50 PMI raise the bar for Macklem to stay hawkish.

  USD/CAD chopped around 1.3965–1.3975. Positive US-Iran diplomacy headlines hit both the safe-haven USD and WTI, and the two offset each other for the Loonie.

• NZD

  NZD heavy near 0.5620 after the RBNZ's surprise hold. Hawkish guidance cushions the floor at 0.5600, but rich hike pricing leaves the NZ jobs data skewed to the downside.

  NZD/USD fell for a second straight session to ~0.5620 as the USD clawed back early losses.

• XAU/USD

  Gold rebounding ~2% to ~$3,950 off Friday's $3,870 yearly low as oil and yields slide on US-Iran diplomacy. Rally is oil-led and fragile while ~75% Dec Fed hike odds cap it.

  Gold rallied over 2% to ~$3,954 Monday after positive US-Iran headlines pushed crude sharply lower.

• XAG/USD

  Silver bouncing off oversold YTD lows near $48.5 on a 5% oil slump from US-Iran diplomacy, reclaiming $50–51. Trend still bearish with a ~75% December Fed hike priced; rebound looks fragile.

  XAG/USD gained ~3.5–3.8% to around $51 after Friday's fresh yearly low ($48.47–48.86 depending on feed).

• BTC/USD

  BTC in a fragile three-day relief bounce, $78k–79k, after the $6.3B Binance hack. Short-covering is leading while ETF outflows show weak spot demand. Midterms are the next jolt.

  BTC extended a third straight day of recovery, regaining $78k and testing $79,000 resistance.

• USOIL

  WTI's war premium is partly unwound: a >5% slide to ~$96.65 on US-Iran diplomacy hopes, but Hormuz is still shut, tanker attacks persist, and there is no deal yet. Headline-driven two-way risk.

  WTI broke below $100 and extended to ~$96.65 after Rubio said Trump prefers a diplomatic resolution, Trump was reported giving diplomacy more time, and Iran's Pezeshkian sent positive signals via Qatari mediation.