AI Market Pulse, Wednesday, 4 November 2026

The AI’s last read of the day on each major currency, gold, silver, oil and bitcoin.

• USD

  USD heavy after the Democratic midterm sweep, with DXY near 101.00 at five-week lows. Resilient labor data caps losses into Friday's NFP (f/c 65K).

  USD sold broadly after Democrats' stunning congressional win.

• EUR

  EUR firm near 1.1235 on post-midterm USD selling plus a 4.0% HICP that keeps a December ECB hike live. It is capped at 1.1270-1.1280 ahead of Lagarde's two speeches Thursday.

  EUR/USD rallied more than 0.6% to an intraday high of 1.1273, just shy of four-week highs near 1.1280.

• GBP

  GBP near 7-week highs (~1.35 vs USD) on a USD slump after the US midterms and a fully priced BoE hike. The BoE guidance is now the swing factor; sell-the-fact risk is high.

  GBP/USD hit a seven-week high of 1.3503 before slipping just below 1.3500.

• JPY

  JPY soft and lagging: failed to gain on the post-midterm USD drop. Intervention talk caps USD/JPY near 158.50-158.60. Wages and Ueda are the next tests of the BoJ-hawk story.

  Democrats taking both chambers in the midterms pushed the USD to five-week lows.

• CHF

  CHF firm after the hot 1.5% CPI and soft-USD post-midterms. USD/CHF bounced off 0.8127 to ~0.8172 but bearish momentum holds; Schlegel must validate the SNB tightening repricing.

  USD/CHF hit a near two-month low of 0.8127 as the dollar was sold after Democrats won the House in the midterms, with US-Iran tensions keeping haven demand for CHF and JPY alive.

• AUD

  AUD rebounding from the post-RBA two-week low (0.6961) toward 0.70 as US midterm results weaken the USD. RBA's dovish hike is priced and shorts are crowded, so the risk skews to the upside.

  AUD/USD bounced from around 0.6965 to near 0.6977 as US midterm results (Democrats taking the Senate, leading the House) hit the USD and lifted risk appetite.

• CAD

  CAD at a 7-week high (USD/CAD ~1.3933) as US midterms and falling yields hit the USD and Macklem talks hikes. Gains are USD-led, and soft Canadian data is a soft spot into Friday's jobs.

  USD/CAD fell ~0.5% to seven-week lows near 1.3933, below Friday's 1.3941 low.

• NZD

  NZD/USD's bounce to ~0.5620 is borrowed from post-midterm USD weakness. NZ fundamentals softened after a 5.7% jobless rate and RBNZ hold; 0.5560 is the line.

  NZ Q3 labour data missed across the board: unemployment 5.7% vs 5.5% f/c, employment -0.1% vs +0.4%, LCI 0.4% q/q vs 0.5%.

• XAU/USD

  Gold reclaims $4,000 (~$4,047) on a post-midterm USD slump and oil plunge, but 79% December Fed hike odds and the $4,074 20-day SMA cap it into Friday's NFP (f/c 65K).

  Democrats swept both houses in the midterms, sending the USD to late-September lows on fiscal concerns and dragging the US 10Y down 6bp to 4.904%.

• XAG/USD

  Silver squeezed ~5% off one-year lows to ~$52.40 on a Democratic midterm sweep that hit the USD and yields. It is still inside a downtrend below $53.50, with a ~75% December Fed hike priced into NFP.

  The Democratic sweep of both Houses sent bonds higher and the USD lower.

• BTC/USD

  BTC in a fragile post-hack rebound, capped near the $79k resistance flagged in news. Firm US labour data trims easing hopes into NFP; ETF outflows and 18,270 stolen BTC remain overhangs.

  No fresh BTC-specific headlines in the last ~24h; the newest news items are ~62h old, so the read leans on the calendar.

• USOIL

  WTI sold hard below $90 (-9% Wed) as the Democrats' midterm win revived end-of-Iran-war bets. The de-escalation premium is unwinding fast, but no deal exists and headline risk is two-sided.

  WTI traded around $95-96 in Asia and Europe, then collapsed about 9% to below $90 in the US session as Democrats' capture of Congress raised expectations of pressure on Trump to end the Iran war.