AI Market Pulse, Tuesday, 10 November 2026

The AI’s last read of the day on each major currency, gold, silver, oil and bitcoin.

• USD

  USD bid after hot Oct CPI (0.4% m/m, core 0.3%) and Waller's 50bp hint. A Dec hike is ~99% priced, so the next leg needs 50bp to gain traction. Fri PPI is the test.

  Oct CPI ran hot: headline 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% f/c and core 0.3% vs 0.2%.

• EUR

  EUR heavy in lower half of the 1.1100-1.1300 range after hot US CPI lifted Fed hike odds to ~99%; ECB hawks offer support, but rate divergence favours USD.

  Hotter US October CPI (headline 0.4% vs 0.3%, core 0.3% vs 0.2%) pushed Fed December hike odds to ~99% and put DXY back above 102.00.

• GBP

  GBP heavy vs USD after hot US CPI and Waller's 50bp talk push cable to late-Oct lows near 1.3300-1.3350. Sterling sturdier on crosses on hawkish BoE. UK Q3 GDP Thu is the test.

  GBP/USD stalled above 1.3450 and then gave back all of Monday's gain.

• JPY

  JPY on the back foot as US 10y yields hit 5% and a hot CPI revive Fed hikes; USD/JPY presses the 159.00 range top, where intervention risk and a hawkish BoJ cap the selloff.

  US October CPI beat (0.4% MoM vs 0.3%). Fed's Logan called for at least two more hikes and Bowman flagged firm price pressure.

• CHF

  CHF soft vs USD as a hot US CPI and hawkish Fedspeak firm December hike bets and the haven bid fades. Against EUR the franc stays underpinned by SNB tightening risk after 1.5% Swiss CPI.

  USD/CHF rose about 0.74% in Tuesday's North American session on a high US inflation report and hawkish Fed commentary.

• AUD

  AUD heavy below 0.6900 after hotter US CPI cemented ~84% Dec Fed hike odds; dovish-leaning RBA and soft China data cap rebounds, but crowded shorts limit follow-through.

  AUD/USD gave back part of Monday's rebound and slipped from ~0.6925 to below 0.6900 (~0.6905, -0.3%).

• CAD

  CAD on the back foot. Hot US CPI and NFP cement Fed December hike bets while weak Canadian jobs and sliding oil erode the BoC hike case. USD/CAD at 1.4167, highest since Oct 16.

  US October CPI beat forecasts. That revived the USD and firmed pricing for a December Fed hike, lifting USD/CAD 0.34% to around 1.4167, above the 1.4140 descending-channel top flagged earlier.

• NZD

  NZD heavy near 0.5600 after hot US CPI erased about half the election pop. The Fed-RBNZ divergence dominates, and domestic data must surprise strongly to revive RBNZ hike bets.

  NZD/USD probed above 0.5630 on Iran-diplomacy USD softness and eyed the 0.5640-0.5645 confluence.

• XAU/USD

  Gold down ~3% to ~$4,020 as hot CPI and 10y yields above 5% lock in a Dec Fed hike. $4,000 is the line into Fri PPI; central-bank buying and haven demand are the only offsets.

  US CPI beat across the board: headline MoM 0.4% vs 0.3% and core MoM 0.3% vs 0.2%.

• XAG/USD

  XAGUSD heavy near $51.20 after a hot October CPI and Waller's warning of a bigger hike. Bearish while below the $53.50 channel top, with $49.00/$48.96 the next support shelf.

  Silver slid ~4% to around $51.23. The selling started when Fed Governor Waller warned of a bigger rate hike in the European session, pushing the price to ~$52.20.

• BTC/USD

  BTC heavy near an 11-week low below $74K after the hot October CPI. A December Fed hike is the base case, so $73K support and Friday's PPI are the near-term fulcrum.

  October CPI beat (headline 0.4% vs 0.3% f/c, core 0.3% vs 0.2%), cementing December rate-hike expectations and knocking BTC below $74,000 alongside equities.

• USOIL

  WTI bearish, below $83 at its lowest since late August as US-Iran peace hopes strip out war premium. A hot US CPI and firmer USD add a mild headwind. Mixed talk signals are the main brake.

  WTI kept sliding from about $85.30 through Monday's 10-week low of $84.25 and then below $83.