AI Market Pulse, Thursday, 29 October 2026

The AI’s last read of the day on each major currency, gold, silver, oil and bitcoin.

• USD

  USD firm after a hot Q3 GDP (3.4%) and sticky core PCE (3.1% y/y) fed December Fed-hike bets. EUR/USD hit a 17-month low near 1.11 and DXY holds above 102.00. ECI tomorrow is the test.

  Thursday's data dump leaned USD-positive.

• EUR

  EUR heavy at 17-month lows (EUR/USD 1.1104) after a hawkish-leaning ECB hold failed to lift it. Energy-driven stagflation and US PCE/Fed-hike pricing dominate into Friday's GDP and CPI.

  The ECB unanimously held the deposit rate at 2.50% (MRO 2.65%).

• GBP

  GBP outperforming on crosses as a Nov 5 BoE hike is fully priced and the Budget proved neutral; cable range-bound near 1.3340 because the Fed (81% Dec hike odds) is also tightening.

  GBP/USD rose ~0.19% to 1.3340 despite strong US data.

• JPY

  JPY soft but range-bound into the BoJ. USD/JPY is pinned in 157.50–158.50 with a ~86% hold priced, so the yen's move hinges on the December-hike signal and on Tokyo CPI against 2.6%.

  USD/JPY chopped around 157.80–158.00 and hit session highs just above 158.00 before mixed US data.

• CHF

  CHF soft but stabilising: USD/CHF stuck in a 0.8265–0.8305 range below the 0.8320 cap after a hawkish Fed hold; carry and a ZEW slump weigh on the franc ahead of Swiss CPI Tue.

  The Fed held rates as expected, but two officials dissented in favour of an immediate hike.

• AUD

  AUD firm near one-month highs (~0.7040-0.7055) on hot CPI and RBA hike bets, but capped below 0.7070. A Nov 3 hike is ~80%+ priced, so it needs hawkish guidance to extend.

  AUD/USD held its post-Fed gains after jumping ~0.5% to 0.7054 when Warsh left rates at 3.75-4.00% without a clear December steer.

• CAD

  CAD steady post-BoC hike: firm on crosses, capped vs a hawkish-Fed USD. USD/CAD pinned near 1.40 into Canada GDP; aggressive BoC pricing limits further CAD upside.

  USD/CAD dipped to 1.3970 after Macklem's hawkish-leaning comments narrowed yield spreads.

• NZD

  NZD heavy after the RBNZ's surprise 4-3 hold. NZD/USD is pinned near 0.5600 just above the 0.5550-67 multi-month floor. Hawkish guidance limits damage, but a December hike is already ~90% priced.

  NZD/USD bounced from the post-RBNZ 0.5584 low but stalled at 0.5635-0.5640 and slipped back to ~0.5615-0.5620.

• XAU/USD

  Gold heavy near $4,016 after strong GDP and sticky core PCE cemented December Fed hike bets. Equity selling is triggering liquidation, not haven buying, and $4,000 is in focus.

  Gold fell over 1.2% to $4,016 (low $4,005) after a hot Q3 GDP (3.4% vs 3.2%) and core PCE steady at 3.1% y/y kept December hike odds around 81%.

• XAG/USD

  XAGUSD breaking down to fresh 2026 lows (~$52.3) on a priced December Fed hike. It is falling even as USD softens, so rates are the driver. Oversold but no buyers yet.

  Silver fell ~2.4–3% Thursday from ~$53.98 to fresh YTD lows at $52.32–52.34, the lowest since November 2025, piercing the $52.60 yearly range floor.

• BTC/USD

  BTC has no crypto-specific news. Macro reads mildly restrictive: Fed held at 4%, core PCE sticky at 3.1% and growth firm. Two-way into ECI and four Fed speakers Fri.

  No BTC-specific headlines. US data was mixed but leaned firm.

• USOIL

  WTI pinned in a ~$100–103 range on a sizeable geopolitical premium. Iran's reply to the Qatari peace draft (due by Fri) is the swing factor. Hormuz attacks and the Saudi refinery strike cushion dips.

  WTI eased from Wednesday's high near $103.00 to about $100.50–100.80.