AI Market Pulse, Saturday, 31 October 2026

The AI’s last read of the day on each major currency, gold, silver, oil and bitcoin.

• USD

  USD on the back foot into the weekend: a tech sell-off and falling yields are offsetting a hawkish Fed. DXY is off its ~102.50 weekly high near 101.65-102.00, with ISM, midterms and payrolls ahead.

  DXY fell for a third straight day as disappointing tech earnings drove a bond bid and lower Treasury yields.

• EUR

  EUR heavy: 1.1214 high faded to ~1.1140 despite a GDP beat and a hawkish ECB pause. Specs add shorts, EUR/GBP at 19-month lows, and the 1.1105 low is in view.

  EUR/USD rebounded above 1.1200 to 1.1214 on an EZ Q3 GDP beat (0.4% vs 0.2%), hot Italian CPI (5.4% vs 4.6%) and Nagel's 'decisive action' rhetoric.

• GBP

  GBP bid across the board at GBP/USD 6-week highs near 1.3420 and EUR/GBP 19-month lows. A Nov 5 BoE hike to 4.00% is fully priced, so the vote split and guidance now drive the next move.

  GBP/USD rose a third straight day to about 1.3400-1.3420, helped by firm BoE hike bets and December Fed hike odds slipping to ~70% from ~81% despite strong US data (Q3 GDP 3.4%, Core PCE 3.1%).

• JPY

  JPY modestly firmer after BoJ's hawkish 1.25% hold, but USD/JPY stays heavy around 157.1–157.7. A December hike is nearly priced and the dollar is recovering, so yen upside looks capped.

  The BoJ held at 1.25% in an 8-1 vote; Takata dissented for 1.5%.

• CHF

  CHF firmer on the week vs USD as the post-Fed dollar fade pulled USD/CHF off 0.8313. Friday's oil-driven pullback to 0.8230 and weak Swiss data cap it; Tue CPI (f/c 1.3% y/y) is next.

  USD/CHF fell for a third day toward ~0.8220 as easing Middle East tensions and US-led diplomacy hit the dollar.

• AUD

  AUD treading water near 0.7030 after hot CPI. An ~80% November RBA hike is priced, so Tuesday's RBA guidance and US midterms matter more than the hike itself.

  AUD/USD was rejected at the 50/200-day SMA confluence and broke below the 100-day SMA at 0.7032 to 0.7020 after strong US GDP and elevated Core PCE.

• CAD

  CAD firm. USD/CAD is at 1.3963, its lowest since mid-September, on WTI above $103, a soft USD and a hawkish BoC hike, despite a stalled August GDP. Upside hinges on oil, with BoC hike pricing already rich.

  USD/CAD fell for a third straight day to around 1.3963, its lowest since mid-September.

• NZD

  NZD rebounding to ~0.5650 after the RBNZ's dovish-surprise hold. A December hike is ~90% priced, so next week's NZ jobs data is the test of whether that hawkish pricing survives.

  NZD/USD extended its post-RBNZ recovery from the low 0.5600s to near 0.5650.

• XAU/USD

  XAUUSD in liquidation mode after breaking $3,886 to a YTD low near $3,880. Selling ignored softer hike odds (70%); bias stays lower into ISM and the midterms.

  Gold dropped more than 3.3% on Friday, slicing through $4,000, $3,965 and $3,900 before breaking the $3,886 floor to a new YTD low around $3,880, its lowest since October 2025.

• XAG/USD

  XAG capitulating below $50 on Dec-hike bets and broad precious-metals liquidation. Deeply oversold into month-end, so bounce risk is rising even as the trend stays firmly down.

  Silver extended its third straight daily loss on Friday, falling more than 5% and breaking below $50 to its lowest since November 2025, after earlier bases near $51.00 and $50.50 failed.

• BTC/USD

  BTC lacks a crypto-specific driver (no news supplied). US macro reads hot growth with sticky core PCE at 3.1% YoY, a mild rates headwind into thin weekend liquidity and Monday's ISM.

  No crypto-specific news was supplied. Friday's US data was mixed-to-soft at the margin.

• USOIL

  WTI bid near five-month highs ($103-104) on Hormuz attacks and post-midterm strike risk. Diplomacy headlines only produce shallow dips toward $100. Weekend gap risk is high.

  WTI posted a third straight daily gain and tagged $104.00, its highest since May 19, after Houthi strikes on Ras Tanura, Abqaiq and Rabigh plus fresh attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.