AUD AI Market Pulse, Wednesday, 11 November 2026
JAFX AI’s read of the news on AUD (Australian dollar), as it stood at the end of the day: read at 23:35 UTC.
Bias: bearish
AUD heavy near 7-month lows sub-0.6850. Hot US CPI lifted Dec Fed hike odds to 87% while the RBA leans to a pause, so policy divergence drives the trade.
AUD/USD lost about 0.9% on Tuesday through 0.6900 after hot US core CPI (+0.3% MoM) and Waller's 50bp-hike warning. On Wednesday a bounce toward 0.6875-0.6878 failed, and the pair slipped 0.27% back below 0.6850 near the 0.6845-0.6840 late-March low, despite positive equity sentiment. Weak Australian data reinforced the soft tone: Westpac sentiment index at 78.2 and NAB confidence at -15.
The past week
The week whipsawed. AUD rallied about 0.9% Monday to ~0.6924 on US-Iran deal hopes and an oil slump, then reversed on US CPI. Domestic data was soft: NAB business confidence fell to -15 and conditions to -2, and consumer confidence was negative again. SocGen flagged rising global yields hitting Australia's leveraged housing market and sees AUD/USD room to fall. China's softer CPI (0.7% vs 0.8%) and a narrower trade surplus ($105.3B from $133.5B) offered no offset.
The bigger picture
The RBA has hiked five times this year but has softened its guidance and is seen on hold, with cuts priced for 2027. The Fed is in an active tightening cycle with the USD near its yearly high, so rate differentials now work against AUD after its strong first-half run. Risk sentiment and oil swings provide only temporary relief.
Positioning
A 25bp December Fed hike (87%) and an RBA pause with 2027 cuts are largely priced, so further AUD downside needs a fresh USD catalyst: Waller's 50bp risk, or dovish RBA minutes. AUD is also near SocGen's 'technically oversold' 0.6833 support, so a dovish-Fed or risk-on headline could spark a sharp short-covering bounce, as Monday's 0.88% rally showed.
Scenarios it set out
- RBA minutes/Bullock (Tue 00:00-00:30 GMT) confirm an extended pause or open the door to easing Divergence widens; AUD/USD likely breaks the 0.6845-0.6833 support zone, eyeing fresh 7-month lows
- RBA minutes/Bullock keep a tightening bias alive, citing sticky inflation Short-covering from oversold levels; AUD/USD likely retakes 0.6875 and retests the 0.6900 pivot, with 0.6925 above
- Consumer Inflation Expectations (00:00 GMT, no consensus) jump sharply Modest AUD support as RBA cut pricing is questioned, but any gain is likely capped while Fed hike bets dominate
What it said to watch
- 0.6845-0.6833 support zone (late-March low / SocGen support); a sustained break opens a deeper leg
- 0.6875-0.6900 as the upside cap after Wednesday's failed bounce
- December Fed pricing: any build in 50bp odds (Waller) is the main USD-up tail
- AUD/NZD near 1.2265-1.2270 two-month-low support
- EUR/AUD capped at the 1.6240 100-DMA
- Oil and risk tone: Monday's US-Iran headline rally showed AUD's sensitivity to USD-negative risk-on shocks
Risk ahead, as it saw it
Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 GMT (no consensus). RBA Governor Bullock speech Tue Nov 17 00:00 GMT and RBA Minutes 00:30 GMT (high impact). Wage Price Index (QoQ) Wed Nov 18 00:30 GMT (no forecast listed).