XAG/USD AI Market Pulse, Friday, 13 November 2026
JAFX AI’s read of the news on XAG/USD (Silver), as it stood at the end of the day: read at 20:41 UTC.
Bias: bearish
XAGUSD heavy near $49, just above the $48.87 YTD low, after a >5% weekly drop. A December Fed hike looks fully priced and bond-market stress is setting direction.
Silver slipped back below $50 and trades around $49. A US Treasury rout pushed 10y yields up almost 5.5% in two sessions to near 5.13%. A marginally soft PPI (YoY 6.5% vs 6.6% f/c, MoM 0.3% vs 0.4%) gave no relief. An intraday bounce to the $50.80 area was sold, and a parade of Fed speakers kept hike expectations firm. Trump ruling out an Iran deal added little safe-haven support.
The past week
The week opened bid near $53 on lower oil, then reversed. Waller flagged a bigger hike, and October CPI came in hot (0.4% MoM vs 0.3%), sending silver down ~4% Tuesday. Wednesday's counter-rally to near $53 stalled below the $53.00/$53.15–53.20 resistance zone. A >3% drop Thursday and the bond sell-off Friday followed, leaving XAG/USD down >5% on the week. The Gold/Silver ratio rose to 78.01, showing silver underperforming gold.
The bigger picture
Silver is in a hawkish-Fed, rising-yield regime: down ~30% YTD, trapped in a descending daily channel below its 21-, 100- and 200-day SMAs. US inflation is re-accelerating (headline PPI 6.5% YoY) and the deficit is widening, which keeps real-yield and USD pressure on non-yielding metals.
Positioning
A December hike is treated as certain (CME FedWatch), so the open question is size. Only a 'supersize' signal or another leg higher in 10y yields beyond ~5.13% adds fresh downside. With RSI near 33 and price sitting on the YTD low after a >5% week, any Fed pushback on a bigger move risks a sharp short-covering bounce. Note that a softer PPI failed to lift silver, which shows sellers still control rallies.
Scenarios it set out
- Fed Chair Warsh (Mon 17:00 UTC) opens the door to a larger-than-25bp December hike, echoing Waller Yields and USD extend gains. XAG/USD likely breaks the $48.87 YTD low and extends the descending-channel move.
- Warsh confirms a December hike but frames it as a standard step, with no supersize signal Largely priced. Silver likely chops around $49–$50 with rallies capped near the $50.80 area; yields remain the swing factor.
- Warsh pushes back on aggressive tightening or flags bond-market stress (10y near 5.13%) Yields ease and short-covering lifts silver back above $50.00 toward $50.80. The old range-support breakpoint near $51.15–51.20 likely caps the bounce.
What it said to watch
- $48.87 YTD low (Oct 30): a daily close below confirms channel continuation
- $50.00 psychological level and the $50.80 intraday high as first rebound caps; $53.00–53.20 negates the bearish bias
- US 10y yield around 5.13%: further spikes are the main driver of silver weakness
- Gold/Silver ratio near 78: a rising ratio signals continued silver underperformance
- Fed's Jefferson tonight (00:00 UTC) for early hike-size signals ahead of Warsh
- CME FedWatch pricing for the size of the December hike
Risk ahead, as it saw it
Fed Chair Warsh speech Mon Nov 16, 17:00 UTC (HIGH). US Retail Sales Tue Nov 17, 13:30 UTC (HIGH): headline f/c 0.0% MoM, ex-autos f/c 0.4%. Fed's Jefferson speaks Sat 00:00 UTC.