ISM tests ~75% Dec Fed hike pricing as WTI slips under $100 and the franc leads

New York Open, Monday, 2 November 2026. Published 13:00 UTC.

Mixed: Risk appetite is mixed: indices are up 0.47% on average over 24h and the yen is the weakest major, yet the franc tops the strength table and gold is up 0.71%, while oil's 3.51% drop reflects diplomacy rather than demand fears.

In short

• The US day hinges on ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (10:00 ET). Forecast is 54.6 against 54.5 previously, with Prices Paid seen at 77 vs 77.9. There is no 08:30 ET data in the calendar. Fed's Goolsbee follows at 16:15 UTC, with markets pricing roughly a 75% chance of a December hike and the midterms tomorrow.
• London extended the oil unwind. XTIUSD is down 1.3% since the last note to 99.98 and 3.01% on the day. CHF is the strongest major (0.59), and USDCHF fell 0.5% to 0.81912, just under its 0.8192 range floor. EURUSD gained 0.28% to 1.12175, pushing into the 1.1200–1.1250 supply zone flagged by ING after hawkish ECB talk from Kazimir.
• German retail sales collapsed (-2% m/m vs 0.4% forecast) with little FX impact. JPY (-0.43) and AUD (-0.42) are the weakest majors, and CHFJPY is up 0.53% since the last note on twice its normal range. Tokyo is shut tomorrow for Culture Day, the same day as the RBA decision.

Themes

ISM is the US day's only hard test

With no 08:30 ET data on the calendar, the 15:00 UTC ISM print and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC carry the US session before tomorrow's midterms. The desk's read is asymmetric: about 75% of a December hike is priced, so a hot print has limited room to add, while a soft ISM has more scope to weigh on USD. A soft print could also extend short-covering in gold and silver.

Franc and euro lead as oil's war premium drains

CHF (0.59) and EUR (0.5) top the strength table as WTI trades at 99.98, its first break below $100 since the rally. The CHF bid rests on the SVME PMI beat and fading haven demand for USD. The euro has hawkish ECB talk behind it, but ING-flagged supply at 1.1200–1.1250 and Fitch's negative outlook on France cap it.

Yen and Aussie at the bottom into a thin Asia

JPY (-0.43) and AUD (-0.42) are the weakest majors. USDJPY is pinned just under 158.00, and AUDUSD at 0.70104 is sitting on its 0.7000 handle ahead of the RBA, where a hike to 4.85% is largely priced. Tokyo's cash market is closed tomorrow for Culture Day, so the RBA and midterm reaction will hit a thinner Asian session.

What moved

• XTI/USD −1.30% The war premium kept draining as Rubio signalled Trump prefers a diplomatic resolution, Iran confirmed Qatari-mediated talks continue and OPEC+ held December targets, while a tanker strike off Saudi Arabia barely registered.
• USD/CHF −0.50% CHF held gains after the SVME PMI beat (56.7 vs 55.3) and a softer dollar, with a 0.32% hourly drop flagged at 08:51 UTC as easing Middle East tensions reduced haven demand for USD.
• EUR/USD +0.28% Kazimir's 'not if but how much' line on further ECB action sparked a sharp euro bid, with upside PMI revisions and cheaper oil adding support; a 0.36% hourly rise was flagged at 09:06 UTC.
• CHF/JPY +0.53% The cross is caught between the strongest and weakest majors: CHF is firm on the PMI beat and the yen is soft despite Katayama's intervention warnings.
• XAG/USD +2.01% Silver extended its bounce off Friday's $48.86 low as WTI fell back below $100, easing the oil-inflation channel that has fed Fed hike fears, though it has slipped 0.27% since the last note.

Releases

• EUR Retail Sales (MoM) -2%. The desk saw little FX impact from the miss, and EURUSD is up 0.28% since the London Open note.
• CHF Real Retail Sales (YoY) 1.6%. The miss was offset by the SVME PMI beat, leaving CHF the strongest major and USDCHF down 0.5% since the last note.
• EUR HCOB Manufacturing PMI 52.2. It was part of the upside PMI run the desk credits for lifting the euro; EURUSD is up 0.53% on the day.
• EUR HCOB Manufacturing PMI 54.2. The German print matched forecast and gave no fresh signal; the euro's later bid came from Kazimir's hawkish comments.

Levels to watch

• USD/CHF 0.8192 This is the floor of the 0.8192–0.8313 range below the 0.8382/0.8395 double top. Price at 0.81912 is just beneath it, with a day low of 0.81879.
• EUR/USD 1.1214 This is the first D1 resistance in the lower-high sequence since the Sep 9 peak. Price at 1.12175 is trading just above it, inside the 1.1200–1.1250 supply zone flagged by ING.
• USD/JPY 158.00 This is the top of the contracting 157.00–158.35 H4 structure. Today's high of 157.996 stalled just below it.
• XAU/USD 3,919.35 This is the nearest H4 resistance in a lower-high, lower-low structure. Today's high of 3918.88 sits just below it.

Ahead

• 14:30 UTC CAD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI There is no forecast and the previous reading was 51.5. It is a domestic check on CAD, which the desk says rests mainly on a soft dollar, with USDCAD at 1.3971 near a 1.5-month low.
• 15:00 UTC USD ISM Manufacturing PMI Seen at 54.6 vs 54.5 prior, this is the day's main test of ~75% December hike pricing. The desk sees more room for a soft print to move USD, XAUUSD and XAGUSD than for a hot one.
• 15:00 UTC USD ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Seen at 77 vs 77.9 prior. It is the inflation read inside ISM, and with oil easing it matters for Fed hike bets and for metals still in D1 downtrends.
• 15:00 UTC USD ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index There is no forecast and the previous reading was 55.3. It is the forward-looking component traders will check alongside the headline for USD direction.
• 15:00 UTC USD ISM Manufacturing Employment Index There is no forecast and the previous reading was 52.7. It is an early labour signal ahead of Wednesday's ADP and Friday's payrolls.
• 15:00 UTC EUR ECB's Escrivá speech It lands at the same time as ISM. Markets will check whether he echoes Kazimir's 'how much, not if' line as EURUSD sits in the 1.1200–1.1250 supply zone.
• 16:15 UTC USD Fed's Goolsbee speech It is the first Fed reaction opportunity after ISM. A dovish tilt would test the ~75% December hike odds that are underpinning the dollar's floor.
• 19:00 UTC USD Loan Officer Survey It is a late-session read on US credit conditions for USD and US indices on the eve of the midterms.
• 21:45 UTC NZD Building Permits s.a. (MoM) There is no forecast and the previous reading was 5.6%. It is a minor input for NZD ahead of Tuesday's Q3 labour data, which the desk sees as the key test of December RBNZ hike pricing.

Until the next briefing, the focus is the 15:00 UTC ISM print and Goolsbee's follow-up. Also in view: whether USDCHF stays below its 0.8192 range floor and WTI below $100 as US-Iran headlines keep running.