Midterm count begins; yen weakest major as USDJPY holds above 158.60

Asia Open, Wednesday, 4 November 2026. Published 23:30 UTC.

Quiet: Indices are up 0.1% on average over 24h and JPY is the weakest major (-0.37), but gold is -0.33% and ranges are a fraction of normal (USDJPY 0.18, EURUSD 0.1), so the market is waiting on the midterms rather than taking risk.

In short

• US midterm results have been coming in since about 23:00 UTC with no decisive FX move yet. EURUSD is flat since the Daily Wrap at 1.119, and USD (0.25) sits just behind EUR (0.27) on the strength table. The desk sees a Democratic House as priced, which leaves Senate control as the swing factor.
• USDJPY is at 158.722, above 158.60, the top of UOB's 1–3 week range. JPY is the weakest major (-0.37). The cap the desk is watching is Finance Minister Katayama's warning that Tokyo will act against disorderly moves.
• Australia's October PMIs beat: Services 48.5 (f/c 47.8) and Composite 48.2 (f/c 47.7). AUDUSD did not respond: it is -0.04% since the Wrap at 0.69636 and still under 0.7000. China's RatingDog Services PMI (prev 51.6) at 01:45 UTC is the next regional test.

Themes

Midterms: only a Senate surprise moves the dollar

Deutsche Bank puts Democrats at 95% for the House and 79% for the Senate, so the desk treats a Democratic House as priced. ING sees even a full Democratic sweep as a short-lived USD negative, while a Republican hold or a split Congress would give the dollar mild relief. Liquidity is thin into Tokyo, with EURUSD trading a range of 0.1 times normal and USDJPY 0.18 times.

Antipodeans: soft kiwi, unresponsive Aussie

NZDUSD is at 0.55858, compressing just above the H4 floor at 0.5600, after the jobs miss left December RBNZ hike pricing exposed. AUD shrugged off the PMI beat and remains under 0.7000. SocGen flags heavy short positioning, which the desk says limits fresh downside without new negatives.

What moved

• USD/JPY +0.04% It is holding above 158.60, which the desk puts down to wide rate gaps and elevated oil weighing on energy-importing Japan, with JPY the weakest major.
• AUD/USD −0.04% Better-than-forecast PMIs failed to lift it, and headlines say the RBA hike has not offset US election worries; the desk notes the dovish 6-3 hike still hangs over the currency.
• NZD/USD +0.01% It is steadying just above 0.5600 after a Q3 jobs report that missed on every line, which the desk says undercuts December RBNZ hike bets.
• USTEC +0.21% It is edging higher in early trade as midterm results arrive; there is no single clear driver in our news feed.

Releases

• AUD S&P Global Services PMI 48.5. The beat barely registered: AUDUSD is -0.04% since the Daily Wrap at 0.69636 and remains below 0.7000.
• AUD S&P Global Composite PMI 48.2. The upside surprise did little for the Aussie: AUDJPY is +0.04% on the day and AUDNZD is flat (0%).

Levels to watch

• USD/JPY 158.60 The former range top is now H4 support after the breakout; price is just above it, below the 158.77 H4 resistance.
• NZD/USD 0.5600 This flat H4 floor has held since the 0.5652 bounce high, with lower highs compressing price into it.
• AUD/USD 0.7000 The round-number D1 resistance sits above price; the late-October range floor near 0.7013 has already been lost.

Ahead

• 01:45 UTC CNY RatingDog Services PMI There is no forecast and the previous reading was 51.6; China demand matters for AUD and NZD, and the desk notes weaker iron ore and industrial metals have already weighed on the Aussie.
• 05:00 UTC INR HSBC Composite PMI The forecast is 56.7; it gives a read on Indian activity, a demand source the desk cites as supportive for silver imports.
• 08:30 UTC SEK Riksbank Interest Rate Decision A hike to 2% from 1.75% is forecast; it is a European-morning test of the global tightening theme ahead of euro-area data.
• 08:55 UTC EUR HCOB Composite PMI The forecast is 52.8, unchanged from the previous reading; it opens the euro-area data run that the desk says will decide whether EURUSD breaks its range.

Watch the Senate control call through the Tokyo morning, and whether USDJPY holds above 158.60 with MoF rhetoric in the background ahead of the BoJ Minutes at 23:50 UTC Wednesday.