Asia opens flat after the midterm shock; BoJ minutes and Aussie trade data come first

Asia Open, Thursday, 5 November 2026. Published 23:30 UTC.

Quiet: The 24h picture is still risk-on: the indices average is +1.55% and oil is -8.77%, while JPY (-0.2) and USD (-0.46) sit at the bottom of the strength table. Since the Wrap, though, cross-asset moves are minimal and day ranges are running at a fraction of normal.

In short

• Little has moved since the Daily Wrap. USDJPY is +0.02% at 158.412, AUDUSD holds 0.7005 and XAUUSD sits at 4063.06, with ranges well below normal (USDJPY at 0.14x a typical day).
• USD is still bottom of the 24h strength table at -0.46 and NZD is top at 0.38. Our digests say the Antipodean bounce is USD weakness, not home strength: NZ jobs missed and unemployment hit 5.7%.
• The Tokyo calendar opens with the BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC and the AUD trade balance at 00:30 UTC (f/c 1200M, prev 495M). Thursday's main event is the BoE at 12:00 UTC.

Themes

USDJPY boxed in under Tokyo's ceiling

The yen did not exploit the post-midterm USD slide: USDJPY dipped to 157.39 and was quickly back above 158. The desk describes a 157.00–158.60 compression, with the intervention cap overhead and rate spreads underneath. The BoJ minutes are the first Tokyo catalyst; a hawkish surprise is the unpriced risk, while a neutral read mostly extends the slow grind.

Antipodeans lean on a weak dollar, not home data

AUDUSD is back above 0.7000 and NZDUSD sits at 0.56225. Both are lifted by USD selling rather than domestic drivers: OIS prices no further RBA hikes, and NZ's Q3 jobs report missed across the board. SocGen flags AUD positioning as heavily short, which is why the trade data matters this morning.

What moved

• USTEC −0.22% A small giveback after the US close, the largest index move since the Wrap; there is no single clear driver in our news feed.
• XTI/USD +0.20% WTI is steadying at 88.65 after its roughly 9% collapse. The desk notes the war-risk premium is unwinding on end-of-Iran-war hopes, with snapback risk high on any escalation headline.
• AUD/USD +0.02% The Aussie is holding just above 0.7000, a level it reclaimed as the post-midterm 'blue wave' hit the dollar. The desk calls the rally USD-driven rather than AUD-driven.
• USD/JPY +0.02% The pair stays pinned near 158. Rate differentials support it, and Tokyo's 'high sense of urgency' warning had no visible impact.

Levels to watch

• USD/JPY 158.60 H4 resistance at the top of the broad range, under the 158.35–158.77 cap that rising lows have been pressing; the desk links this zone to the intervention-threat ceiling.
• AUD/USD 0.7000 H4 support at the old range floor, retested after the range break; price is sitting just above it at 0.7005.
• XAU/USD 4,070.46 First H4 resistance after the break of the 3971 range top, close to the 20-day SMA near $4,074 that the desk cites as the rebound's cap.

Ahead

• 23:50 UTC JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes The desk is watching for hawkish dissent or hike-timing hints. A firm signal is not priced after the BoJ cast doubt on hike timing, so USDJPY and the JPY crosses are exposed.
• 00:30 UTC AUD Trade Balance (MoM) The surplus is forecast to widen to 1200M from 495M. It is a domestic test for an AUDUSD rally the desk sees as driven by USD weakness and short positioning.
• 00:30 UTC AUD Exports (MoM) Exports follow a 3.7% prior gain. A terms-of-trade read matters after the oil slide, with AUDUSD and AUDJPY exposed.
• 07:00 UTC EUR Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) A 4.8% rebound is forecast after -10.6%. It opens the European handover for EURUSD, which is sitting just under its double-bottom neckline.
• 08:05 UTC EUR ECB's Schnabel speech With a December ECB hike already priced, her language on whether it is a done deal matters for EURUSD ahead of Lagarde.

Through Tokyo and Sydney, the question is whether USDJPY stays capped below 158.60 once the BoJ minutes land, and whether AUDUSD keeps 0.7000 after the trade data, before attention shifts to the BoE.