XAUUSD +1.64% and JP225 -3.25% in Asia; BoE at 12:00 UTC sets the European day

London Open, Thursday, 5 November 2026. Published 07:00 UTC.

Mixed: Indices are +1.29% on average over 24h, but gold is +2.82%, CHF is second-strongest at 0.25 and JP225 fell 3.25% in Asia, so the dollar is being sold into havens and metals as much as into risk.

In short

• Asia moved the story on from a flat open. Since the Asia Open, XAUUSD is +1.64% at 4128.82, JP225 is -3.25% at 60929 and USDJPY is -0.33% at 157.89, as selling of the dollar after the Democratic midterm sweep continued.
• USD is still bottom of the 24h strength table at -0.35, with NZD top at 0.44 and CHF at 0.25. Australia's trade surplus came in at 2826M against a 1200M forecast, and AUDUSD is +0.28% at 0.70196.
• Europe opens with German factory orders at 07:00 UTC (f/c 4.8%) and ECB speakers. The BoE decides at 12:00 UTC (f/c 4% from 3.75%, vote 7 hike / 2 hold), and Lagarde speaks at the same time. US jobless claims and SNB's Schlegel follow at 13:30 UTC.

Themes

Dollar slide grinds on, now at chart ceilings

EURUSD is +0.27% since the Asia Open at 1.12633, just under H4 resistance at 1.1273. USDCHF is -0.33% at 0.81398, sitting just above the 0.81273 two-month low. Our USD digest has DXY at monthly lows near 101.20, but notes an 82% December Fed hike price limits how much more good US data can help the dollar.

BoE: a priced hike, so the vote split is the event

GBPUSD is +0.15% at 1.34948, below the 1.3503 seven-week high after five straight up sessions. A 25bp hike to 4% is fully priced, and our digest flags that an in-line 7-2 vote risks a sell-the-fact reaction, while a more hawkish split has room to surprise. Lagarde speaks at the same time, which complicates EURGBP, already +0.13% this session.

Metals squeeze, oil and Tokyo stocks slide

XPTUSD is +1.94% and XAGUSD +0.83% at 52.77 since the Asia Open, alongside gold, while WTI slipped another 1.37% to 87.39 on Iran-war-end hopes. JP225 fell 3.25% and USTEC 1.08% over the same window, with no single clear driver for equities in our news feed. Our gold digest calls the rally stretched, with H4 RSI at 76, ahead of Friday's payrolls.

What moved

• XAU/USD +1.64% Our digest ties the squeeze above $4,100 to post-midterm USD selling and softer US yields, with a 1.08% jump in an hour flagged at 01:16 UTC.
• JP225 −3.25% The platform flagged a 1.88% drop in an hour at 01:21 UTC, but our news feed has no single clear driver for the index itself; the yen was firmer at the time after hawkish BoJ minutes.
• USD/JPY −0.33% September BoJ minutes showed members agreeing it was suitable to keep raising rates, and a softer dollar added to the move.
• NZD/USD +0.42% Our digest frames the rise as broad USD selling after the Democratic sweep, not domestic strength, with weak NZ jobs data capping the kiwi.
• XTI/USD −1.37% WTI extended Wednesday's slide on hopes that the Democratic sweep of Congress forces an end to the Iran war.

Releases

• AUD Trade Balance (MoM) 2826M. AUDUSD is +0.28% since the Asia Open at 0.70196, but our digest notes the beat gave only mild support and the pair is capped near the 0.7022 H4 level.
• AUD Exports (MoM) 2.3%. Exports were part of the trade beat, but the AUD move stayed small and was driven by the dollar.
• AUD Imports (MoM) -3.3%. The fall in imports widened the surplus; AUDJPY is -0.1% since the Asia Open, which shows little home-grown AUD demand.

Levels to watch

• EUR/USD 1.1273 H4 resistance at the window highs; price is pressing it after a higher-high, higher-low sequence off 1.1104.
• GBP/USD 1.3503 H4 resistance at the seven-week high; price has been consolidating just below it ahead of the BoE.
• USD/CHF 0.81273 H4 support at the two-month swing low; price is pressing it within a lower-high, lower-low sequence.
• USD/JPY 157.40 H4 support at the base of the rising-lows structure; momentum has stalled below the 158.77 top.

Ahead

• 07:00 UTC EUR Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) Forecast is 4.8% after -10.6%, a first test for EUR with EURUSD pressing its range top.
• 07:30 UTC EUR ECB's Cipollone speech A December ECB hike is the base case, so any hint of hikes beyond it would matter for EURUSD and the EUR crosses.
• 08:05 UTC EUR ECB's Schnabel speech Schnabel's view on the path after December feeds directly into EURUSD as it tests 1.1273-1.1276.
• 09:00 UTC NOK Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision A hold at 4.5% is expected; this is mainly a NOK event with limited read-across to the majors.
• 10:00 UTC EUR Producer Price Index (YoY) Forecast is 10.9% after 8.2%, a pipeline-inflation read that supports the ECB hike case.
• 10:30 UTC USD Challenger Job Cuts Previous was 43.281K; it is an early US labour signal before Friday's payrolls, with the dollar near monthly lows.
• 12:00 UTC GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision A 25bp hike to 4% from 3.75% is fully priced, so the vote split and guidance drive GBPUSD, EURGBP and GBPJPY.
• 12:00 UTC GBP BoE MPC Vote Rate Hike Forecast is 7 votes for a hike; a stronger hawkish split is what our digest says the market has not fully priced.
• 12:00 UTC GBP BoE MPC Vote Rate Unchanged Forecast is 2 votes to hold; our digest calls the number of hold dissents the key tell for sterling.
• 12:00 UTC EUR ECB's President Lagarde speech Lagarde lands at the same moment as the BoE, so EURGBP and EURUSD face two policy signals at once.
• 12:30 UTC GBP BoE's Governor Bailey speech The press conference will be read for 'gradual' or 'one-and-done' language against pricing of further hikes.
• 13:30 UTC USD Initial Jobless Claims Forecast is 196K after 194K; with a December Fed hike about 82% priced per our digest, a soft print matters more than a firm one for the dollar.
• 13:30 UTC USD Unit Labor Costs Forecast is 0.6% after 1.2%; it is a wage-cost read that feeds Fed hike odds, gold and the dollar.
• 13:30 UTC CHF SNB Chairman Schlegel speech After the hot 1.5% CPI, a repeat of his hawkish line adds little, while a dovish turn could hit crowded CHF gains in USDCHF and EURCHF.
• 13:50 UTC USD Fed's Hammack speech This is the first Fed voice after the midterm-driven dollar selloff, and it can reshape December hike odds.
• 15:30 UTC CAD BoC's Governor Macklem speech 'Further hikes may be needed' is largely priced, so a softer tone would be the surprise for USDCAD.
• 16:00 UTC EUR ECB's President Lagarde speech Lagarde gets a second chance to signal hikes beyond December or growth caution, and either would move EURUSD off its range top.

Into the next briefing, the focus is the BoE vote split at 12:00 UTC and Lagarde alongside it, and whether EURUSD and GBPUSD hold at 1.1273 and 1.3503 when US claims land at 13:30 UTC.