Tech rout hits stocks: US500 -4.94%, USTEC -7.08%; yen leads FX; NFP next

Daily Wrap, Thursday, 5 November 2026. Published 22:15 UTC.

Risk-off: Indices averaged -4.46% over 24h while JPY led the strength table at 0.67, gold rose 0.67% and AUD sank to -1.08. Oil's 3.54% gain is the only cross-asset move out of step with the defensive tone.

In short

• Equities had their worst day in a while. US500 -4.94%, USTEC -7.08%, US30 -4.13% and JP225 -9.37% on the day, with US500's range 4.8 times normal. Headlines blamed the AI trade coming apart and a data-centre backlash. NVDA -6.46%, TSLA -7.44% and JPM -5.17% led single-stock losses.
• Haven flows reshuffled FX. JPY is now top of the 24h strength table at 0.67, ahead of USD at 0.2, and AUD is bottom at -1.08. USDJPY is 157.704, -0.44% over 24h. Gold held up at 4088.05 as December Fed hike odds fell to 66% from 82%, per our gold desk. US data ran firm (claims 189K vs 196K f/c, productivity 3.6% vs 2.5%), but unit labor costs fell 0.7% against a 0.6% forecast.
• Friday's test is US payrolls at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) with average hourly earnings (0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y) and unemployment (4.2%). Canada's jobs report (f/c 13.6K) lands at the same time. Before that come Japan wages tonight at 23:30 UTC, Fed's Williams and ECB's Lane at 09:30 and EZ retail sales at 10:00.

Themes

The AI trade unwinds and equity ranges explode

US500, USTEC and US30 all moved more than four times their normal daily range, and JP225 fell 9.37%. Losses ran from chips to banks and payments: NVDA -6.46%, JPM -5.17%, V -3.51%. UK100 lost 1.63% and FRA40 0.55%, so Europe was hit far less than the US and Japan.

Havens bid: yen leads, gold holds above $4,000

JPY topped the strength table at 0.67 on the tech rout and hawkish BoJ minutes, which said one member preferred moving 'relatively soon'. Gold pared its gains to 4088.05 after an intraday high of 4146.63, still up 0.59% on the day. Our gold desk warns a hot NFP could rebuild hike pricing, and that further equity losses could trigger margin-driven gold selling like the Oct 30 drop. Silver lagged at -0.75% after stalling near its $53.48 high.

Dollar firm on data, but lower yields cap it

Claims at 189K and productivity at 3.6% beat forecasts, and Fed speakers leaned hawkish. Even so, the US 10y fell 6bp and USD ended second in the strength table at 0.2, behind the yen. EURUSD is pinned at 1.12192 and GBPUSD is little changed at 1.34507, as the BoE's 9-0 hike to 4% failed to lift sterling.

Oil bounces but commodity FX stays weak

WTI rose 3.43% on the day to 91.6 after this week's war-premium unwind, which leaves it -11.6% on the week. The bounce did not help commodity currencies on a risk-off day. AUD and CAD were the two weakest in the strength table at -1.08 and -0.5, and USDCAD sits at 1.40153.

What moved

• USTEC −7.08% Headlines said the NASDAQ 100 led Wall Street lower as 'the AI trade comes apart', with chip and tech names hit hardest.
• US500 −4.94% The tech sell-off spread to the broad market, and the Dow headline cited a 'data-centre backlash' erasing the midterm rally.
• JP225 −9.37% Our feed has no Japan-specific equity driver. The drop came alongside the US tech and chip sell-off that the desk says also drove haven demand for the yen.
• XTI/USD +3.43% No single clear driver in our news feed. The bounce followed the desk's read of WTI testing its 200-day SMA near $86, with ING and Rabobank warning the war-premium unwind was premature.
• AUD/USD −0.98% No single clear driver in our news feed. AUD finished bottom of the strength table at -1.08 on a risk-off day, and the H4 chart shows a break below the 0.6954 prior low.
• XAU/USD +0.59% Gold climbed back above $4,100 as the NASDAQ 100 slumped, the US 10y fell 6bp to 4.829% and December hike odds slid to 66%, then eased to 4088.05.

Releases

• USD Unit Labor Costs -0.7%. The desk says the drop softens the wage-inflation story. It helps explain why the dollar's rebound was capped by falling Treasury yields, with EURUSD barely changed at -0.06% over 24h.
• USD Initial Jobless Claims 189K. The lower print helped the dollar reverse most of Wednesday's election-led drop, with EUR/USD slipping back to about 1.1220 from 1.1268 per the desk.
• USD Nonfarm Productivity 3.6%. It added to the firm US data tone alongside claims. The later equity rout and lower yields still pulled December hike odds down to 66%.
• MXN Banxico Interest Rate Decision 6.25%. Headlines called the 25bp cut unexpected. There is no MXN pair in our price feed, so no market reaction to report.

Levels to watch

• EUR/USD 1.1203 Floor of the 1.1203–1.1273 H4 range, with price sitting just above it at 1.12192.
• USD/JPY 157.39 D1 support the desk ties to the 50-day SMA and this week's low, inside a contracting 156.08–159.03 range.
• XAU/USD 4,146.92 Top of the 4076–4147 H4 consolidation and the level where today's intraday high stalled.
• AUD/USD 0.69536 The former 0.6954 swing low, now H4 resistance after price broke beneath it to print a fresh lower low.
• USD/CAD 1.4015 Top of the 1.3941–1.4015 D1 compression band; price is trading right at it.

Ahead

• 23:30 UTC JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) Expected at 3.8%, the same as last time. It feeds the December BoJ hike debate revived by the hawkish September minutes, so USDJPY and yen crosses are exposed.
• 07:00 UTC EUR Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) German output is forecast flat at 0% after 2%. It follows factory orders of 4.4% that missed the 4.8% forecast, but the desk sees EURUSD as mostly a USD story.
• 09:30 UTC USD Fed's Williams speech Hammack and Barkin leaned hawkish today, so any view Williams gives on the equity rout or the December hike, now priced at about 66% per our gold desk, matters for USD, gold and indices before NFP.
• 09:30 UTC EUR ECB's Lane speech The desk will watch whether Lane pushes back on or endorses December ECB hike pricing; two more hikes by mid-2027 are already priced, which leaves EURUSD little to gain from hawkish talk.
• 10:00 UTC EUR Retail Sales (YoY) The forecast is 0.6% after 0.8%, a read on eurozone demand for EURUSD and EUR crosses ahead of US payrolls.
• 13:30 UTC USD Nonfarm Payrolls The forecast is 65K after 29K, and the desk thinks firm ADP, JOLTS and claims have lifted the whisper higher, so a soft print carries more downside risk for USD. USD pairs, gold, indices and BTCUSD are all exposed.
• 13:30 UTC USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) Expected at 0.3% after 0.1%. After unit labor costs fell 0.7%, wages decide whether the Fed hike case is confirmed or undercut.
• 13:30 UTC CAD Unemployment Rate Seen steady at 4.2%. The USD desk flags an uptick as the scenario most likely to revive the post-midterm 'weaker exceptionalism' dollar trade.
• 13:30 UTC CAD Net Change in Employment The forecast is 13.6K after -68.3K. The CAD desk says a BoC hike lean is already priced, so a soft print clashes with that pricing; USDCAD gets both jobs reports at once.

Into Friday, the question is whether payrolls and wages at 13:30 UTC calm or deepen an equity sell-off that has already cut December hike odds and put the yen at the top of the table.