Equity slide carries into Asia; yen firm as Japan wages land (f/c 3.8%)

Asia Open, Friday, 6 November 2026. Published 23:30 UTC.

Risk-off: Indices average -4.74% over 24h and JPY leads strength at 0.88 while AUD trails at -1.14, a clear haven-over-beta tape, though CHF is flat at -0.02 and gold is only +0.28% on 24h.

In short

• The selling has not stopped since the Daily Wrap. USTEC is -0.84% and JP225 -0.77% since the last note, and US500 is -0.36%. Gold has slipped too, -0.36% to 4072.6.
• The yen is still in charge. JPY tops the 24h strength table at 0.88 and AUD sits at the bottom at -1.14. USDJPY is 157.426, just above the 157.39 D1 support that our JPY desk calls the 50-day SMA and weekly low.
• Japan's Labor Cash Earnings (f/c 3.8%) is the only Asia-Pacific release in the window. There is no RBA, RBNZ or China data. Europe follows with industrial production at 07:00 UTC, then Williams and Lane at 09:30 and US payrolls at 13:30 UTC.

Themes

Yen bid meets wages, then Ueda

The hawkish BoJ minutes pushed the market toward pricing a December hike. Our JPY desk says Ueda's speech at 16:00 UTC has to confirm that for the yen to extend. Tonight's wage data (f/c 3.8%) is the first check, with USDJPY at 157.426 sitting just above 157.39. Intervention warnings and the 158.62 200-day SMA cap the topside, but wide rate differentials limit how far the yen can run.

Antipodeans on the back foot into the weekend

AUD is the weakest major at -1.14 on the 24h strength table, and AUDUSD at 0.6924 is trading below the 0.6932 D1 support. NZDUSD is back below 0.5600 at 0.55925. A dovish RBNZ, an 11-year-high jobless rate and Saturday's New Zealand election hang over the Kiwi. Neither currency has domestic data today, so risk appetite and US payrolls set the tone.

What moved

• USTEC −0.84% The US tech and chip sell-off flagged by our JPY desk is extending in early electronic trade; there is no new headline since the Wrap.
• JP225 −0.77% Tokyo-linked futures are tracking the US tech rout lower ahead of the cash open, with a firmer yen adding pressure.
• USD/JPY −0.14% The yen is still drawing support from the hawkish BoJ September minutes, which lifted December hike bets, and from risk-off flows out of equities.
• XAU/USD −0.36% No single clear driver in our news feed. Gold has drifted below the low end of the 4076–4147 H4 consolidation that our chart engine describes.

Levels to watch

• USD/JPY 157.39 Lower edge of the compressing range above 156.08. Our JPY desk identifies it as the 50-day SMA and weekly low, and price sits just above it.
• AUD/USD 0.6932 Support inside the 0.6894–0.7068 range that has held since early October. Price is currently trading just below it.
• XAU/USD 4,057.79 First D1 support beneath the rebound off the one-year low. It marks the swing low gold recovered from before the move above $4,100.

Ahead

• 23:30 UTC JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) The forecast is 3.8%, matching the previous print. Our JPY desk sees wages as the test of the wage-driven December BoJ hike case, so USDJPY and the yen crosses are most exposed.
• 07:00 UTC EUR Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) The forecast is 0% after a previous 2%. The EUR desk calls it a minor input next to US payrolls, but it is the first European data for EURUSD near 1.1200.
• 07:00 UTC EUR Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) There is no forecast, and the previous reading was 2.3%. It lands alongside the m/m figure and mainly matters for EUR crosses in early European trade.

Watch whether Japan's wage print keeps USDJPY pinned near 157.39 through Tokyo, with Ueda at 16:00 UTC and US payrolls at 13:30 UTC still to come.