Dollar ends the day at yearly highs as gold loses $4,000 and USDJPY sits just under 160

Daily Wrap, Wednesday, 11 November 2026. Published 22:15 UTC.

Risk-on: Indices averaged +0.92% over 24h while gold fell 1.11% and the havens sat at the bottom of the strength table (CHF -0.54, JPY -0.18), so risk appetite held up even with the dollar bid.

In short

• The dollar finished the FX day on top. USD leads our strength table at 0.55 with CHF bottom at -0.54. USDCHF is up 0.92% over 24h to 0.83284, USDJPY is at 159.758, and EURUSD is at 1.10909, below its former 1.1104 range floor.
• Gold broke below $4,000. XAUUSD is down 1.16% on the day to 3987.85 as US 10y yields at 5% and firmer December hike pricing weighed. Silver is down 2.19% since the New York Open note.
• Stocks ignored yields: NAS100 rose 2.03% and SPX500 1.22% on an AI-led rebound. Next up: UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 UTC (QoQ f/c 0.7%), US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K), then Fed speakers starting with Hammack at 14:00 UTC.

Themes

The 50bp question keeps the dollar bid

A December 25bp hike is fully priced at about 28.5bp, up from 21bp on Monday, so the USD digest sees the extra upside in a repricing toward 50bp. The dollar move was broad: USDCAD is up 0.43% over 24h at 1.42497 near four-week highs, and NZDUSD is down 0.46%. Digests across EUR, CHF and gold flag that soft data or Fed pushback on 50bp would more likely bring profit-taking than a trend change.

Stocks up, havens down, but the rally was narrow

SPX500 gained 1.22% and NAS100 2.03% on the day as AI names rebounded, while gold lost 1.11% over 24h and CHF finished last in our strength table. Leadership was selective: ORCL is up 8.99% over 24h while MSFT is down 2.27% and AMZN fell 2.7% on the day.

Yen pinned just below the 160 line

USDJPY is at 159.758, up 0.35% since the New York Open note. That puts it under the H4 swing high at 159.937, with H4 RSI at 73. The JPY digest notes MOF has intervened heavily at 160.00, which leaves skewed snap-back risk for the yen despite the carry trend.

Oil whipsawed by US-Iran headlines

UKOil was flagged up 2.13% in an hour at 15:26 UTC as doubts grew over US-Iran talks after Iran demanded sanctions and blockades end first. The bounce faded: USOil is down 0.71% since the New York Open note to 85.511, capped by an API crude build and the firmer dollar.

What moved

• XAU/USD −1.16% Hot CPI pushed US 10y yields above 5% and lifted December Fed hike odds, and recovery attempts were capped under $4,050 as the USD stayed bid.
• NAS100 +2.03% AI stocks rebounded and carried the index to a one-week high, even with yields firmer.
• JPN225 +2.95% No single clear driver in our news feed. The day's range ran at 1.51 times a normal day.
• USD/CHF +0.92% Fed-SNB divergence after hot US CPI, plus fading haven demand as Middle East tensions eased after Trump called the war 'effectively over', took the pair through 0.8300.
• EUR/USD −0.65% Hawkish Fed commentary lifted jumbo-hike odds and broke the 1.1100-1.1110 support zone. Final German HICP and French political uncertainty gave the euro no offset.
• USD/JPY +0.63% Bowman flagged inflation pressure and Logan called for at least two more hikes, and a 5% US 10-year auction kept the yield gap wide.

Levels to watch

• EUR/USD 1.1082 D1 support just below price after the five-week 1.1104–1.1276 range was lost on a daily close. 1.1104 is now the first resistance above.
• USD/JPY 160.00 Round-number D1 resistance above the broken 156.0–159.0 range. The H4 swing high at 159.937 sits just beneath it.
• XAU/USD 4,000.00 H4 resistance just above price after the 4147-4148 double top broke below its 4027.52 neckline.
• GBP/USD 1.32662 H4 support at the fresh lower low under the 1.3459 lower high, with H4 RSI at 27.8.
• USD/CHF 0.8337 H4 resistance immediately above price following the break of the 0.8313 multi-week range top, with H4 RSI at 75.4.

Ahead

• 00:00 UTC AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations No forecast and a previous reading of 5.3%. It lands with AUDUSD at 0.68502, near the 0.6843 low, where the AUD digest flags short-squeeze risk on any hawkish domestic surprise.
• 07:00 UTC GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Q3 is forecast at 0.7% vs 0.5% previously. The GBP digest says a strong print has more room to steady sterling than a miss has to sink it, with GBPUSD at 1.32758 under 1.3300.
• 07:00 UTC GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Forecast 1.9% vs 1.4% previously. It is part of the same 07:00 UTC UK data drop that tests GBPUSD and the GBP crosses.
• 07:00 UTC GBP Gross Domestic Product (MoM) September is forecast flat at 0% vs 0.1% previously, released alongside manufacturing (f/c -0.5%) and industrial production (f/c -0.3%).
• 09:00 UTC EUR Economic Bulletin A December ECB hike is already signalled and largely priced, so EURUSD relief depends more on US data than on ECB commentary.
• 13:30 UTC USD Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 195K vs 189K previously. It is the first US print since the CPI-driven repricing and matters for USD crosses, gold and US indices.
• 14:00 UTC USD Fed's Hammack speech Hammack opens a heavy Fed-speaker slate running through Williams, and any lean toward or away from 50bp in December feeds straight into USD pricing.

UK GDP at 07:00 UTC sets the European tone, but the bigger tell is whether claims and the Fed speakers move December pricing away from 25bp, with USDJPY sitting this close to 160.