USDJPY idles at 159.629 under the 160 line as AUD inflation expectations open Asia

Asia Open, Thursday, 12 November 2026. Published 23:30 UTC.

Mixed: Risk appetite is split: indices are up 0.59% on average over 24h but softening since the wrap, gold is down 1.21% and the havens are weak (JPY -0.1, CHF -0.41), while the dollar holds top spot at 0.58.

In short

• Little has changed in FX since the Daily Wrap. USD still leads the 24h strength table at 0.58 and CHF is bottom at -0.41. USDJPY is at 159.629, just under the 160.00 level our JPY desk flags as the intervention line.
• Equity futures are giving back some of the AI-led rebound. NAS100 is down 0.88% and SPX500 down 0.48% since the last note, and JPN225 is off 0.63% ahead of the Tokyo cash open. XAUUSD stays below $4,000 at 3982.4.
• Asia's only scheduled data is Australian consumer inflation expectations at 00:00 UTC (previous 5.3%, no forecast). UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 UTC (QoQ f/c 0.7%) is the first big test after Tokyo.

Themes

USDJPY parked under the 160 intervention line

USDJPY is holding 159.629 after a session high of 159.787, just below 160.00, which MUFG flags as where intervention becomes a much greater prospect. A December Fed hike and a December BoJ hike are both expected, so the rate gap is seen as unchanged. Our JPY desk sees the near-term risk tilted toward a sharp yen squeeze rather than a smooth grind higher in the pair. JPY crosses are flat to slightly firmer, with EURJPY up 0.01% and CHFJPY up 0.11% since the last note.

AUD and NZD pinned near cycle lows

AUDUSD at 0.68429 sits just above the 0.6843/0.6833 support zone, and NZDUSD at 0.5565 is near the 0.5560 support our NZD desk cites. Both are weighed down by Fed-hike repricing against softer RBA and RBNZ expectations. Tonight's Australian inflation expectations print is the only local catalyst, and our AUD desk flags short-squeeze risk with spot near oversold levels.

What moved

• NAS100 −0.88% There is no single clear driver in our news feed; futures are paring part of the AI-led rebound that lifted the index to a one-week high.
• USD/JPY −0.06% The pair is stalling just under 160.00 after its break of a seven-week range on hot US CPI and US 10y yields at 5%, with the intervention line capping the extension for now.
• AUD/USD −0.11% The Aussie dipped under 0.6850 as Fed-RBA divergence widens, with hot US CPI on one side and softer RBA guidance after its fifth hike on the other.
• XAU/USD −0.27% Gold is still accepting below $4,000 as US 10y yields above 5% and roughly 87% December Fed-hike pricing keep the dollar bid.

Levels to watch

• USD/JPY 160.00 D1 resistance at the September high zone, first test since early September; the recent H4 swing high is 159.937.
• AUD/USD 0.6833 H4 support just below the fresh 0.6843 lower low, in a sequence of lower highs from 0.7068.
• XAU/USD 3,975.70 D1 support just under spot, within a lower-highs, lower-lows structure from the 4696 late-August peak.

Ahead

• 00:00 UTC AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations There is no forecast against a previous 5.3%, and with AUDUSD near seven-month lows and the RBA's softer guidance priced, it is the one AUD-specific input for AUDUSD, AUDJPY and AUDNZD in Sydney hours.
• 07:00 UTC GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Q3 is forecast at 0.7% after 0.5%; with GBPUSD at three-week lows and the BoE leaning hawkish, a strong print carries squeeze risk for sterling, most visibly on the crosses.
• 07:00 UTC GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) It is forecast at 1.9% after 1.4% and lands alongside the QoQ read, so it adds to the growth picture driving GBPUSD and EURGBP into the London open.

Through Tokyo, keep an eye on whether USDJPY tests 160.00 and how AUD takes the 00:00 UTC inflation expectations print, ahead of UK GDP at 07:00 UTC.