Dollar cools below highs into claims and Fedspeak; gold slides to 3937.62

New York Open, Thursday, 12 November 2026. Published 13:04 UTC.

Mixed: Indices are up 0.24% on average over 24h and JPY and CHF are barely moving (scores 0.04 and -0.07), but gold is down 2.63% and oil 1.35%, so there is no clean risk signal.

In short

• London took some heat out of the dollar. USD's 24h strength score eased to 0.35 from 0.63 in the last note. EURUSD rose 0.13% to 1.10872, and USDJPY slipped 0.15% to 159.62 after a 159.944 day high and Mimura's intervention warnings.
• Gold got no relief from the softer dollar. XAUUSD fell 0.71% to 3937.62, through the 3968.75 H4 support flagged at the London open, with a day low of 3924.62. UK Q3 GDP matched at 0.7% q/q and the monthly data beat, but GBPUSD moved only 0.09%.
• There is no HIGH-impact US data today. Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K, prev 189K) open a long Fed speaker slate from Hammack at 14:00 UTC to Schmid at 18:30 UTC. Lagarde (HIGH) speaks at 19:30 UTC, and Friday's core PPI (f/c 5%) is the bigger test.

Themes

Dollar pauses below 103.08 as Fedspeak takes over

DXY printed a 19-month high at 103.08 in Asia, then eased to about 102.80 in Europe. USD's 24h strength score has dropped to 0.35 from 0.63, and USDCAD (-0.08%) and USDCHF (-0.06%) dipped since the last note. A 25bp December hike is fully priced but 50bp is only about 13%, and BBH flags the rally as stretched, so today's Fed speakers decide whether this is a pause or a turn.

Gold breaks lower as metals lag

XAUUSD is down 1.39% on the day and 2.63% over 24h at 3937.62, a third straight down session. Silver is at 51.003, sitting on the $51.15-$51.00 range floor our desk flags. The gold desk notes that further downside needs fresh hawkish escalation, while a soft print or USD pullback carries short-covering risk back toward $4,000.

Tech and crypto soft before the US cash open

NAS100 is down 0.32% on the day and SPX500 down 0.16%, with MSFT (-1.94%), FB (-2.66%) and AMZN (-2.7%) lower, while GER30 is up 0.46%. BTCUSD is down 1.91% on the day and ETHUSD 2.35%, after a fifth straight day of spot ETF outflows. The crypto desk also flags today's $25B 30-year Treasury auction as a yield test.

What moved

• XAU/USD −0.71% Our gold desk says the post-CPI slide pushed it below $4,000 and then $3,950 in the European morning, as the dollar index hit its highest since April 2025 above 103.00 on firming Fed hike bets.
• USD/JPY −0.15% The pair stalled at a 159.944 day high just under 160.00 after Mimura called the moves 'too rapid' and warned markets not to forget intervention risk.
• EUR/USD +0.13% It bounced off the 1.1066 18-month low as the dollar rally cooled across majors in Europe, a pause BBH ties to markets waiting on Fed talk.
• GBP/USD +0.09% Stronger September GDP, industrial and manufacturing figures gave only a marginal lift; our GBP desk says the USD move is swamping UK data.
• BTC/USD −0.77% Pressure came from a five-day spot ETF outflow streak totalling $1.44B and an AI-equity selloff after reports Nvidia's board may oust Jensen Huang.

Releases

• GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) 0.7%. A large beat, but GBPUSD only edged from about 1.3250 to 1.3260 as the dollar drove the pair.
• GBP Gross Domestic Product (MoM) 0.2%. The beat added little: GBPUSD is up 0.09% and EURGBP up 0.05% since the London Open note.
• GBP Industrial Production (MoM) 0.3%. Our desk says swaps already price back-to-back BoE hikes, so the upside surprise barely registered in sterling.
• GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 1.9%. An in-line print with no discernible reaction; GBPUSD stayed inside a 1.32498–1.32824 day range.
• GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) 0.7%. Matched consensus; UK100 is down 0.28% since the last note, leaving the data with no clear market footprint.

Levels to watch

• USD/JPY 160.00 D1 resistance at the round number our JPY desk links to MoF intervention risk; today's 159.944 high sits just below it.
• XAU/USD 3,924.62 H4 support set by today's low, below the broken double-top neckline; the next D1 support listed is 3870.26.
• EUR/USD 1.1104 Bottom of the five-week 1.1104–1.1276 range, which was lost on a daily close; it now acts as D1 resistance with price at 1.10872.
• GBP/USD 1.32498 Latest H4 swing low in a lower-high, lower-low sequence, matching today's 1.32498 day low.

Ahead

• 13:30 UTC USD Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 195K vs 189K prior. A low print reinforces the tight-labour, hawkish-Fed story behind dollar strength, and USD pairs, XAUUSD and US index futures are most exposed.
• 14:00 UTC USD Fed's Hammack speech This is the first of today's Fed speakers. Any nod toward a 50bp December hike, only about 13% priced, would test the dollar's pause.
• 15:00 UTC USD Fed's Barr speech It is another read on whether officials back the larger-hike talk Waller opened, which matters for EURUSD, USDJPY and gold.
• 15:00 UTC USD Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) No forecast is listed after a 1.5% prior; it is a secondary US read and mainly exposes USD pairs.
• 15:30 UTC EUR ECB's Vujčić speech It is the warm-up to Lagarde. EUR needs hints that December is not the ECB's peak, and EURUSD sits near 18-month lows.
• 16:30 UTC USD Fed's Goolsbee speech It adds to the Fedspeak that will shape December pricing, with a 25bp hike fully discounted, and USD crosses and XAUUSD are exposed.
• 18:10 UTC USD Fed's Daly speech Any shift in tone on back-to-back hikes feeds directly into USD momentum and gold.
• 18:30 UTC USD Fed's Schmid speech Schmid's hawkish remarks helped drive this week's USD rally, so a repeat would test whether dollar dips stay shallow.
• 19:00 UTC USD Monthly Budget Statement It is forecast at -298.6B$ vs -27B$ prior, a fiscal read that lands while the desk flags weak demand for US debt.
• 19:30 UTC EUR ECB's President Lagarde speech With a 25bp December hike to 2.75% fully priced, only a signal of further tightening gives EUR upside room, so EURUSD and EUR crosses are exposed.
• 21:30 UTC NZD Business NZ PMI No forecast is listed after a 56.5 prior; NZDUSD sits just above the 0.5527 YTD low.

Watch whether Fed speakers from Hammack at 14:00 UTC lift the roughly 13% priced odds of a 50bp December hike, which our desks treat as the swing factor for the dollar's pause and gold's slide.