Gold drops 2.89% to a yearly low as Fed-hike bets keep the dollar on top

Daily Wrap, Thursday, 12 November 2026. Published 22:15 UTC.

Mixed: Indices averaged -0.32% over 24h, the yen firmed (JPY score 0.21) and AUD sat bottom at -0.39. But CHF stayed soft at -0.04, gold fell 2.76% and oil rose 2.82%, so this was a dollar-and-rates day rather than a clean haven bid.

In short

• The dollar stayed in charge into the close. USD's strength score is 0.24, down from 0.35 at the New York open but still top of the table. EURUSD is at 1.1056, under the 1.1066 18-month low, and AUD is weakest at -0.39 with AUDUSD at 0.68082, a 10-month low. Claims came in at 200K against a 195K forecast and did little to dent the hawkish Fed story.
• Metals took the hit. XAUUSD fell 2.89% on the day to 3877.69 after a 3852.5 yearly low, and XAGUSD lost 3.18% to 50.073. Oil went the other way: UKOil rose 4.06% on IRGC claims of Hormuz mine strikes and Trump's 'we don't need a deal with Iran' post.
• Next up is Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC, then European inflation and Q3 GDP. US PPI at 13:30 UTC is the main event, with core YoY forecast at 5%. The desk says it takes a hot core print to push 50bp December pricing.

Themes

Fed repricing keeps the dollar in charge

DXY tagged a 19-month high at 103.08 before easing to the 102.80 area. A December 25bp hike is fully priced, so the live debate is 50bp, and Daly added to it, warning AI is fuelling inflation and seeing more hikes ahead. BBH flags the rally as stretched versus rate differentials, which the desk reads as asymmetric downside for the dollar on an in-line or soft PPI.

Metals flushed as yields and the dollar climb

Gold fell nearly 3% to a fresh yearly low of 3852.5, part of a three-day, roughly $300 slide, with the US 10y near 5% and DXY above 103.00. Silver underperformed, losing its weekly floor, and XAUEUR fell 2.31% on the day, so gold also dropped in euro terms rather than just against a strong dollar.

Hormuz headlines flip oil higher

Crude started the day heavy on a reported API build, higher OPEC+ output and Russia-Ukraine peace-talk progress. It then turned on IRGC mine-strike claims and Trump's 'no deal needed' post. UKOil closed the day up 4.06% and USOil up 2.86% to 87.86, above the ~$86.80 100-SMA the desk had flagged as the cap on bounces. XOM gained 1.1% and CVX 0.95% on the day.

Huang exit and MSCI decision hit crypto

Bitcoin fell to its lowest since August after Jensen Huang's resignation, and NVDA is down 4.31% over 24h. MSCI's confirmed removal of Strategy raised doubts about MSTR as a buyer of Bitcoin. ETH briefly lost $2,000, and IBIT has bled about $2B over nine days, so bounces have lacked sponsorship.

What moved

• XAU/USD −2.89% More Fed officials leaned toward further tightening and markets explored a 50bp December hike. That pushed the DXY above 103.00 and sent gold to a fresh yearly low of 3852.5.
• XAG/USD −3.18% Silver broke its $51.15-51.20 weekly floor on the broad USD rally and hawkish Fed commentary, and the gold/silver ratio rose to 77.22.
• NVDA −4.31% Jensen Huang's abrupt resignation as Nvidia CEO hit the stock and dragged tech and crypto lower with it.
• EUR/USD −0.30% Fed-ECB divergence and Waller-led talk of a possible 50bp move kept the euro heavy. The platform flagged a 0.36% hourly drop at 15:21 UTC, and the pair is now below the 1.1066 18-month low.
• AUD/USD −0.57% Fed-RBA divergence widened as hawkish Fed commentary met an RBA signalling a pause at 4.85%. The pair fell for a third straight day to its lowest since January.
• BTC/USD −3.75% Jensen Huang's abrupt exit from Nvidia dragged tech and crypto lower, and MSCI confirmed Strategy's index removal. About $750M of crypto positions were liquidated.

Releases

• USD Initial Jobless Claims 200K. The higher-than-expected print trimmed USD gains for a while and let EURUSD steady. Fed hawks still outweighed it, and EURUSD ended 24h down 0.3%.
• USD Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) -5.5%. Gave metals no relief. XAUUSD kept sliding and closed the day down 2.89% as the hawkish Fed narrative held.
• USD Monthly Budget Statement -404.1B$. The wider deficit did little to dent hawkish Fed pricing, and USD stayed top of the strength table at 0.24.

Levels to watch

• XAU/USD 3,852.50 Fresh yearly low set today. It sits at the base of a lower-high/lower-low chain from the late-August peak, and H4 RSI is 26.
• EUR/USD 1.1000 Round-number D1 support beneath the 1.10454 shelf, after the six-week range broke lower. ING calls it 'solid support'.
• USD/JPY 160.00 D1 resistance under test after the seven-week range break above 159.03. This is the zone where MoF's Mimura called moves 'too rapid'.
• AUD/USD 0.67975 Support just under the 0.6808 ten-month low, below a confirmed D1 head-and-shoulders. H4 RSI is 26.4.
• BTC/USD 70,000.00 Psychological D1 support beneath the 71165.63 shelf, inside a lower-high/lower-low sequence since the early-October double top. H4 RSI is 25.8.

Ahead

• 23:30 UTC USD Fed's Williams speech The desk's focus is whether he endorses or pushes back on a 50bp December hike. USD, USDJPY near 160.00 and XAUUSD are the most exposed.
• 07:10 UTC EUR ECB's Schnabel speech A December ECB hike to 2.75% is unanimous consensus, so the desk sees hawkish ECB talk offering the euro little fresh support. EURUSD and EURGBP are exposed.
• 07:45 UTC EUR Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) Forecast 3.8% against 3.8% previous. It is the first inflation read of the European morning, with EURUSD sitting at 18-month lows.
• 08:00 UTC EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) Forecast 4.9% against 4.9% previous. A surprise either way tests how much of the ECB path is already in the euro.
• 10:00 UTC EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) Euro-area Q3 growth is forecast at 0.4% q/q, unchanged from 0.4%. It is a growth check for EUR crosses ahead of the US session.
• 13:30 UTC USD Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) Forecast 5% against 5% previous. The desk says a hot core print is needed to push 50bp December pricing, while an in-line or soft read leaves a stretched dollar rally exposed. USD, XAUUSD, XAGUSD and BTCUSD are all in play.
• 13:30 UTC USD Producer Price Index (YoY) Headline is forecast at 6.6% against 6.3% previous. It lands alongside core and feeds the same Fed-pricing debate that drove metals lower today.
• 13:30 UTC USD Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) Forecast 0.3% against 0.7% previous. The monthly core pace is the cleanest read on whether pipeline inflation is cooling or not.
• 13:30 UTC USD Producer Price Index (MoM) Forecast 0.4% against 1.3% previous. Firmer oil today added to the inflation worries the desk flagged for gold.

Until the next note, watch whether Williams tonight lends weight to 50bp December talk, then whether core PPI against its 5% forecast confirms or unwinds the dollar move that took gold to 3852.5.