Quiet Asia open: USDJPY parked at 159.85 under 160.00, Williams is first test

Asia Open, Friday, 13 November 2026. Published 23:30 UTC.

Mixed: Indices are up 0.12% on average over 24h while gold is down 2.69% and oil up 3.19%. JPY's 0.14 score beats CHF's -0.18, which reflects intervention fear rather than a broad haven bid.

In short

• Little has changed since the Daily Wrap. USDJPY is flat at 159.849 and EURUSD at 1.1055 is trading a range just 0.05 times normal. USD's strength score has climbed back to 0.32 from 0.24 at the wrap, and AUD is still weakest at -0.25.
• Business NZ PMI eased to 54.9 from 56.5 and NZDUSD barely moved at 0.55449. No Japanese, Australian or Chinese data is scheduled before Europe, so Tokyo trades on Fedspeak and the 160.00 line.
• Fed's Williams speaks at 23:30 UTC and the EU leaders summit starts at 00:00 UTC. Then come ECB's Sleijpen, Elderson and Schnabel, national CPI at 07:45 UTC and HICP at 08:00 UTC. US PPI later Friday is still the main event.

Themes

Yen stuck at 160.00 into Tokyo

USDJPY sits at 159.849 against D1 and H4 resistance at 160, a level where, per the JPY digest, Japan has bought yen twice this year. Mimura's warning has capped the pair, while BoJ's Asada sounded dovish. Japan Q3 GDP on Sunday at 23:50 UTC (f/c 0.1% QoQ) and US PPI are the next tests, and MoF language moving toward 'excessive' or 'decisive action' would change the picture.

Antipodeans sit at the lows

AUD is the weakest currency at -0.25, and AUDUSD at 0.68057 is just above D1 support at 0.67975. NZDUSD at 0.55449 is close to the 0.5527 YTD low that the NZD digest flags as the line. The local catalysts come next week: RBA minutes, Bullock and RBNZ inflation expectations are all on Tue 17 Nov. Friday's direction is therefore likely to be set by US data.

What moved

• USD/JPY 0.00% Pinned just under 160.00 after top currency official Mimura called moves 'too rapid' and warned markets not to forget intervention risk.
• AUD/USD −0.01% Holding near its 10-month low. The RBA is signalling a pause at 4.85% while December Fed-hike odds sit near 87%, so Fed-RBA divergence keeps the pressure on.
• XAU/USD −0.01% Steadied at 3877.24 after Thursday's hawkish-Fed liquidation to the 3852.5 yearly low. The desk sees 50bp hike odds as the marginal driver now.
• NAS100 +0.26% Small after-hours lift; no single clear driver in our news feed.

Releases

• NZD Business NZ PMI 54.9. NZDUSD is down 0.02% since the wrap at 0.55449, so the softer print made little impression.

Levels to watch

• USD/JPY 160.00 D1 resistance being tested after the seven-week range break above 159.03. Price has stalled just beneath it, and it is also H4 resistance.
• AUD/USD 0.67975 D1 and H4 support just below the 10-month low, following a confirmed head and shoulders. H4 RSI at 26.4 is oversold.
• XAU/USD 3,852.50 Yearly low and D1 support, also H4 support beneath the 3870.26 prior low. The H4 trend is extended and oversold.

Ahead

• 23:30 UTC USD Fed's Williams speech The desk is listening for any endorsement of back-to-back or 50bp hikes. USDJPY near 160.00, gold and AUD are the most exposed.
• 00:00 UTC EUR EU leaders summit It starts during Asia hours and brings headline risk for EUR, which sits at 18-month lows near 1.1050.
• 07:10 UTC EUR ECB's Schnabel speech A 25bp December ECB hike to 2.75% is consensus, so EURUSD needs a genuine surprise in tone to react.
• 07:45 UTC EUR Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) Forecast is 3.8%, unchanged from previous. EURUSD is exposed, though the desk says euro-area data has little room to add hawkish support.
• 08:00 UTC EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) Forecast is 4.9%, the same as previous. A miss in either direction matters for EURUSD as it trades close to 1.1000.

Until London opens, the two things that matter are how USDJPY behaves at 160.00 and whether Williams leans toward a 50bp December hike.